After a very warm start to November, the recent cold blast has brought the average temperature in the Twin Cities to below average. We're also seeing a surplus in the precipitation with a snowfall surplus of about 1" as well.

The weather outlook for Thanksgiving Day Thursday looks fairly quiet with the potential of a few flurries/sprinkles in the morning. Much of the day should be dry with cloudier skies and temps in the mid 30s.

The 850mb temp anomaly through the week ahead shows warmer than average temperatures in place through much of the week ahead with. It'll feel MUCH warmer than it did last week.

Last week was VERY cold with temps running well below average. Looking at the extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis through the end of the month, it appears that we'll be closer to average if not slightly above average at times. We even have a chance at warming into the 40s on Saturday!

Here's the weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday, November 22nd. It'll be a little chilly in the morning with temps in the lower 20s under cloudier skies, but we should have no problem getting above the freezing mark by the afternoon.

Temps across the region on Tuesday will be closer to average for the middle/end of November. However, it'll be quite a bit warmer than it was last week. A fast moving clipper system will scoot across the northern part of the state during the first half of the day, where a light coating of snow will be possible.

Temps on Tuesday will start off quite chilly in the low/mid 20s, but will warm into the mid/upper 30s in the afternoon, which will be closer to average for this time of the year. The day will start cloudier with more sun in the afternoon. South to southwesterly winds will be a bit breezy with gusts approaching 15mph to 20mph.

A fast moving clipper will scoot across the northern part of the state through the first half of the day Tuesday with some light snow. Minor accumulations will be possible.

The snowfall potential through Tuesday shows minor accumulations up to 1" possible. This could be enough to create a few slick spots near the international border, but things should be quiet closer to home.

It has been a very dry Fall so far with precipitation running more than 4.64" below average (since September 1st). The September 1st - November 21st time period was the 7th driest on record.

The Twin Cities is nearly 9.54" below average for the year, which is the 19th driest start to any year on record (through November 21st). Meanwhile, International Fall, MN is still nearly 9.67" above average, which is still the 2nd wettest start to any year on record there.

It has been a dry year for many across central and southern MN. Extreme drought continues across parts of the Twin Cities to the Minnesota River Valley where rainfall deficits have been the greatest. It would be nice to get a good soaking prior to heading into winter, but it doesn't appear that anything substantial is on the way anytime soon.

The extended precipitation outlook through Monday, November 28th shows very little precipitation close to home, which is good news as we approach the Thanksgiving holiday travel.

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows readings closer to average now as we head through the Thanksgiving holiday. Temps will warm into the mid/upper 30s with fairly quiet weather.

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows fairly quiet weather in place through the Thanksgiving holiday. Temperatures will warm into the 30s, which will be closer to average for this time of the year. We may even see readings warm close to 40F by the weekend and early next week.

Here's the ECMWF extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis through the end of the month. Readings will certainly be warmer than they were last week with the potential of highs reaching the 40s!

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps hanging on across Southern US with cooler than average temps returning to the Western half of the nation.

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place across the northern tier of the nation.

"Minnesota? Oh. It's really cold there, yes?" I heard this from a local in the Dominican Republic last week. I smiled. "Yes, we have been blessed with cold fronts. But no hurricanes, earthquakes or volcanoes to speak of." No lake effect snow either, with the exception of the Duluth area and North Shore.

I like snow, but 7 feet in 3 days? What I would have given to ride out the recent extreme lake effect snow event in Buffalo.

Icy winds passing over relatively mild lake water created rapidly rising air. Snow fell at a rate of up to 6"/hour with thunder and lightning. Surreal.

No Thanksgiving weather drama this week. Good news for travelers as a zonal (west to east) flow keeps us dry with mellowing temperatures. In fact we may top 40F from Wednesday into Saturday before cooling down next week. Sprinkles are possible Thanksgiving Day and early model runs hint at accumulating snow in roughly one week.

Here in the Land of Low Weather Expectations our new definition of "warm front" is 40s. Sounds good.

TUESDAY: Clouds and sunshine. Winds: SW 7-12. High: 36.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Winds: WSW 5. Low: 24.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and milder. Winds: SE 8-13.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy, few sprinkles? Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 28. High: 36.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Too nice to shop. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 23. High: 44.

SATURDAY: Blue sky, relatively mild. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 30. High: 47.

SUNDAY: Cooler with patchy clouds. Winds: N 8-13. Wake-up: 29. High: 37.

MONDAY: Light rain/snow mix possible. Winds: NE 10-15. Wake-up: 28. High: 34.

November 22nd

1996: Heavy snowfall accumulates over the same areas that were hit two days earlier. Four to seven inches of snowfall are reported across the area. Heavier snowfall occurred during the daylight hours of the 23rd. Snowfall totals of six inches were reported in the Twin Cities, Chanhassen, Stewart, St. James and Redwood Falls.

1970: Gale-driven snow falls across Minnesota. 45 mph winds are reported over Rochester and Duluth.

November 22nd

Average High: 39F (Record: 60F set in 2012)

Average Low: 25F (Record: -6F set in 1880)

Record Rainfall: 0.74" set in 2016

Record Snowfall: 5.5" set in 1898

November 22nd

Sunrise: 7:19am

Sunset: 4:48pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 18 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 3 seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 hour & 18 minutes

0.7 Days Before New Moon

The weather outlook on Tuesday shows cooler than average temps lingering across much of the nation, but folks in the Central US will see above average temps return after a very cold week last week.

The weather outlook for Tuesday shows a little light snow across the Great Lakes Region. There will also be a little precipitation across the Pacific Northwest, but the rest of the nation appears to be dry.

The weather outlook through Wednesday shows slight more active weather in place across the northern tier of the nation and in Florida through midweek, but much of the rest of the nation looks fairly dry and quiet.

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook brings heavier precipitation potential across the Gulf Coast States and into the Eastern US. There will also be another heavier batch of precipitation across the Pacific Northwest.

According to the ECMWF (European model), areas of heavy snowfall will be found in the Western US, especially across the Cascade Range. There could also be some snow in the Midwest next week, but it's entirely too early to tell what may unfold. Stay tuned...

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See more from LA Times HERE:

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