Warming temps will squeeze North Shore ski season, but bring surge in May

While most climate change research takes the stark global view, scientists at the University of Minnesota are thinking smaller.

Like: What's going to happen on the North Shore? And even more specifically: How will it affect the people who love the North Shore?

Mae Davenport, an associate professor at the U, is finishing a three-year project on how climate change will affect tourism in places like Two Harbors, Grand Marais and inland from the rocky Lake Superior coast.

She and her research partners at the University of Minnesota Duluth have surveyed thousands of visitors and local business operators, tracked past visitor patterns, and melded the results with weather predictions to draw a scenario of how people will respond.

Turns out — it's not all bad.

The people who visit the region most often are the ones who are deeply attached to it, and they probably will come no matter what, Davenport said. But by 2050, when the North Shore will have an average of 21 days above 71 degrees instead of the current 18, half of the visitors will come in May. And warmer temperatures are likely to increase the number of annual visitors because — well, it'll be warmer.

That's based on patterns she's found by looking at how visitors have behaved in warmer years in the past.

"Frequent visitors are more adaptable, and have a higher emotional attachment, " she said. "So we may have more of them because there's more to do when temperatures are warmer."

They may not be fishing for trout in the lakes, because cold-water fish are declining. But they probably will fish for something else or do something else entirely, she said.

The predictions for winter-lovers are more muddled. But the shorter winter and a decline in average snow depth (from 14 to 8 inches, on average) will squeeze winter sports into January and February. And true cold-loving tourists may head to Canada to find it, she said.

The findings will help local tourist businesses adapt, she hopes, by coming up with new activities and marketing.

"Local folks have seen the impact and they want to be better prepared," she said.