Week 16 NFL picks: Picking winners and underdogs while COVID rips through league

You know what they say about the NFL. On any given Sunday … or Saturday when college football is done … or Monday … or, of course, Tuesday during a pandemic …

It's Week 16 and there are 22 teams with a .500-or-better record, 27 still alive and five mutts that now officially get to play an extra worthless game in the NFL's first 17-game season.

Five Week 16 games feature two teams with winning records. One game, Steelers at Chiefs, has a third team that's starting to dominate the league's stretch run: Team COVID.

Kansas City seems to be the front-runner for this week's COVID Quagmire Award, joining last week's co-winners Cleveland and Washington. For that reason, this NFL guesstimator will go with the Nine Lives of Mike Tomlin's Steelers to end the Chiefs' league-high seven-game winning streak at Kansas City.

Five games have a spread of fewer than three points, while four are 9 ½ points or larger. The Bucs are 11-point favorites against Carolina and hoping they do better last week when they lost to the Saints 9-0 as 11-point favorites.

The Vikings are home underdogs against a Rams Dream Team that's now won three straight after losing three straight and gets to be perhaps the first team to play on a Tuesday and travel to play a team that played on a Monday.

Here's a look at this week's games:

THURSDAY'S GAME

49ers minus-3 ½ at Titans: Titans 24, 49ers 21

Yes, the 49ers are on a roll toward securing at least the NFC's sixth seed. Yes, the Titans are 1-3 in the last month. But Tennessee's defense is due to be rewarded with a key bounce-back game after a loss to the Steelers in which they ran for 201 yards while holding Pittsburgh to 168 total yards.

SATURDAY'S GAMES

Browns plus-7 at Packers: Packers 37, Browns 28

The Packers have given up 122 points over the past four games (3-1). Big deal. In a shootout at Lambeau Field, take Aaron Rodgers and a Packers team that's 6-0 against the spread at home this year. For those keeping track, this would raise Matt LaFleur's regular-season record to 37-9. He's 3-2 against Mike Zimmer heading into their Jan. 2 meeting in Green Bay.

Colts plus-1 ½ at Cardinals: Colts 31, Cardinals 26

Arizona's downward spiral continues. A week after being blown out by the 1-win Lions, the Cardinals run into a Colts team that's got MVP candidate Jonathan Taylor, a 1,500-yard rusher with 17 TDs, and a top-10 scoring defense (21.4).

SUNDAY'S GAMES

Rams minus-3 at Vikings: Vikings 31, Rams 28

Blocking Aaron Donald, Leonard Floyd and Von Miller well enough for Kirk Cousins and the Dalvin Cook-less offense to score 31 points seems illogical based on Monday's constipated attack in Chicago. But the comfort of U.S. Bank Stadium and an up-and-down Rams team that's on the road after a Tuesday night game should send the Vikings to Green Bay with their first winning record since the end of the 2019 season. And, naturally, it will be a one-score decision.

Ravens plus-7 at Bengals: Ravens 22, Bengals 20

This season is so weird, the Bengals are going for a season sweep of both Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Cincinnati beat the Ravens 41-17 at Baltimore. But the hard-luck Ravens, who have lost three straight by four total points, will rise again.

Lions plus-7 at Falcons: Falcons 23, Lions 20

The Falcons are soft and they know their playoff hopes were dashed last week. The Lions are bad, but they aren't soft, and they haven't given up. That being said, never pick the Lions when you think they'll win.

Buccaneers minus-10 at Panthers: Buccaneers 40, Panthers 6

Someone will have to take the wrath of Tom Brady after the G.O.A.T. got shut out for the third time in 313 regular-season starts. Unfortunately for the dysfunctional Panthers, they get to play the Bucs twice in three weeks.

Chargers minus-10½ at Texans: Chargers 31, Texans 17

Despite Houston's win over Jacksonville last week, Los Angeles shouldn't need to do much heavy lifting to stay in the AFC playoff race. Houston can't stop the run, ranking 32nd (145.0), which will help the Chargers keep control of the game.

Bills plus-1½ at Patriots: Patriots 24, Bills 20

Bill Belichick started December by beating the Bills with a 46-3 run-pass differential. Knowing him, he'll end December by beating the Bills with a 3-46 run-pass differential.

Jaguars plus-1 ½ at Jets: Jets 17, Jaguars 10

The No. 1 overall draft pick (Trevor Lawrence) takes on the No. 2 pick (Zach Wilson) in mustn't watch NFL TV!

Giants plus-10 at Eagles: Eagles 24, Giants 12

Can the Giants stop an Eagles running game that's averaging 214 yards over the past seven games? For the second time in four games, the answer is … nope!

Bears plus-6 ½ at Seahawks: Seahawks 21, Bears 9

The Matt Nagy Farewell Tour has only three more games to get Justin Fields ready to make the next coach look better.

Broncos plus-1 at Raiders: Raiders 25, Broncos 16

Drew Lock will start for the Broncos. Nuff said. Denver sweeps Vegas.

Washington plus-10 at Cowboys: Cowboys 34, Washington 19

Dallas' three-game win streak, which includes a win at Washington, reaches four games as Dak Prescott and the offense finally wake up and join the party.

MONDAY'S GAME

Dolphins plus-3 at Saints: Saints 28, Dolphins 21

Two 7-7 teams sitting just outside the playoff picture meet in what's essentially an elimination game. The Dolphins have won six straight. The Saints just shut out Tom Brady as an 11-point underdog. Go with the home team in prime time in this one.

UPSET SPECIAL

Steelers plus-9½ at Chiefs: Steelers 24, Chiefs 20

The Chiefs are hot, but apparently not as hot as COVID-19. The Nine Lives of Mike Tomlin's Pittsburgh Steelers steal a win on the road as K.C.'s seven-game winning streak comes to an end.

Last week's Upset Special: Seahawks (plus-4½) 27, Rams 24. Actual score: Rams 20, Seahawks 10. Record: 7-7.

Last week's record straight up/against the spread: 9-7/8-8.

Season record straight up/against the spread: 141-82-1/108-115-1.

Vikings picks straight up/against the spread: 11-4/7-8.