Western Illinois vs. Gophers: Randy Johnson's game prediction

Western Illinois at Gophers, 11 a.m. Saturday, Huntington Bank Stadium, BTN, 100.3-FM

Fresh off beating a 36½-point underdog in their season opener, the Gophers face a 37½-point underdog in their second game. There are stylistic differences between New Mexico State, which the Gophers pummeled 38-0, and Western Illinois, Saturday's opponent, but both face huge talent deficits vs. Minnesota.

Three big story lines

How will the Gophers handle the unknown?

Western Illinois, which lost to fellow FCS member Tennessee Martin 42-25 in its opener, brings an element of intrigue because it has a new coaching staff and hasn't faced the Gophers recently. The Fighting Leathernecks were picked to finish last in the Missouri Valley Conference, the nation's best FCS league.

Will the Gophers open up the passing game?

Last week, the Gophers stuck with their ground-and-pound attack, rushing 57 times while attempting 23 passes. While they'll likely play things close to the vest in the nonconference season, don't be surprised if Tanner Morgan tries a few downfield throws to get the vertical game some action.

Thomas Rush and Danny Striggow posted second-half sacks for the Gophers last week, but defensive coordinator Joe Rossi wants more pressure from his line. There should be more opportunities for that to happen this week because Leathernecks QBs Nick Davenport and Henry Ogala combined to attempt 38 passes.

Two key matchups

Gophers offensive line vs. Western Illinois defensive line

Brian Callahan's charges must be licking their chops over this matchup. The Gophers are coming off a game in which they averaged 5.2 yards on their 57 rushes. The Leathernecks defense surrendered an average of 6.0 yards per carry against Tennessee Martin.

Gophers secondary vs. Western Illinois WR Naseim Brantley

One stat that matters

1 The Gophers' national rank in both total defense (91 yards allowed) and time of possession (44:30) through the first week of the season. There's a strong link between those two stats.

The Gophers will win if … they resume the workmanlike approach they used against New Mexico State, methodically wearing down their FCS opponent with their running game; they avoid turnovers, which are the fuel of upsets; and they generate a pass rush against an opponent that will need to move through the air to have any chance at victory.

The Leathernecks will win if … Davenport, the QB who gave them a second-half spark against Tennessee Martin, hooks up repeatedly with wideouts Brantley and Jafar Armstrong; their defense figures out a way to fluster Morgan; and they create big-play scoring opportunities from turnovers or special teams.

Prediction

While the Leathernecks reside in the conference that includes North Dakota State, winner of nine of the past 11 FCS championships, they're not at that level. Western Illinois, 2-9 last year and 4-25 over the past three seasons, is rebuilding under alum Myers Hendrickson, who succeeded at NAIA level Kansas Wesleyan.

Expect running backs Mohamed Ibrahim and Trey Potts to carry the bulk of the load for the Gophers behind an offensive line that showed much promise in the opener. Offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca might loosen the reins on Morgan a bit, but don't expect 35 passes from the Gophers. On defense, this week's test for Minnesota is tougher because the Leathernecks at the very least will try to pass and showed proficiency in doing so.

My expectation: Lots of body blows from the Gophers running game, an occasional deep throw to keep the Leathernecks defense honest and another strong performance from Rossi's troops. Gophers 41, Leathernecks 7