What should Vikings do if price to move up in draft is too steep?

A recent mock draft suggested the Vikings would trade No. 11, No. 23 and next year’s first round pick to move up to No. 5 and select Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy. Is that too much to get ‘the quarterback of the future?’

The Minnesota Star Tribune
April 3, 2024 at 4:57PM
Minnesota Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and head coach Kevin O’Connell during a news conference in March. (Carlos Gonzalez/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Setting clear and measurable goals is a key to achievement. Businesses do it all the time to make sure they are staying ahead of the curve.

The Vikings, it would seem, are no different. While they haven’t literally screamed, “WE ARE DRAFTING A QUARTERBACK” from the top of a mountain, their actions have essentially done that.

They let an expensive known commodity (Kirk Cousins) leave in free agency. They already added a first-round pick to their 2024 draft haul. And their head coach -- himself a former quarterback -- has been closely watching all the quarterback prospects.

Being intentional is good. But it also might have a negative cost: If I can plainly see the Vikings intend to draft a quarterback, the other 31 teams in the NFL can, too. And because they Vikings don’t simply hold a pick in the draft that will let them choose any of the top quarterbacks available, their QB need might lead teams to make them overpay with draft compensation in any trade to move up.

This concern came to the forefront when looking at a recent mock draft by ESPN’s Field Yates. With the caveat that all mock drafts are fraught with peril and that this one seems out of line in terms of trade compensation compared to others, let’s dissect it:

Yates has the top three quarterbacks coming off the board with picks 1-3 -- Caleb Williams to Chicago, Jayden Daniels to Washington and Drake Maye to New England. Arizona takes Marvin Harrison Jr., and then the Vikings move up to No. 5 to take Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy.

That seems logical and in line with popular sentiment, especially if New England doesn’t budge off No. 3. But Yates has the Vikings giving up not only No. 11 and No. 23 this year but also their first-round pick next year to complete the swap.

That seems like way too much whether you consult draft pick value charts or other mocks. But let’s talk about the reality it represents.

Let’s say the first three QBs do fly off the board 1-3. And let’s say McCarthy is the only other QB on the board the Vikings think is worthy of building around as a franchise QB (we don’t know that for sure, but let’s say it’s true).

The Vikings would be in a spot where they might have to significantly overpay to make sure they get their guy. Waiting to pick at No. 11 could be a big risk. And every team above them will know they are desperate for a QB.

Now, there’s also a good chance the Vikings have already worked through several contingencies, leaving them both comfortable with the price they need to pay in various move-up scenarios and confident they can get a quarterback they want.

But when everyone knows your intentions, the price to pay will be high. And it’s fair to wonder if there’s a point at which it simply becomes too steep even for a QB-needy franchise.

Here are four more things to know today:

*Stefon Diggs played 70 games with the Vikings before being traded in 2020 to Buffalo. He played 66 games for Buffalo before being traded Wednesday to the Texans. We have established a shelf life for the mercurial but talented wide receiver.

*On Wednesday’s Daily Delivery podcast, I noted a couple of concerning short-term numbers: The Twins have only hit one home run this season, and it came in the first inning of the first game by a guy (Royce Lewis) who was injured shortly thereafter. And Anthony Edwards is 0-for-19 on three pointers in his last three games.

*At least Byron Buxton wasn’t injured by a racing sausage.

*Star Tribune outdoors writer Tony Kennedy is expected to join me on Thursday’s podcast to talk about Big Ten deer hunting power rankings.

about the writer

about the writer

Michael Rand

Columnist / Reporter

Michael Rand is the Star Tribune's Digital Sports Senior Writer and host/creator of the Daily Delivery podcast. In 25 years covering Minnesota sports at the Star Tribune, he has seen just about everything (except, of course, a Vikings Super Bowl).

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