What Trump sees in Vance, his new apprentice

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Donald Trump’s contempt for the Washington establishment is well known. He challenges, confronts and subverts its institutions, its media, its consultants, its euphemisms and its unwritten codes of conduct. Choosing Sen. JD Vance of Ohio to be his running mate is the latest example of the former president’s willingness to flout political convention.

Previous vice-presidential nominees were selected to forge party unity, capture a crucial swing state or help an outsider president navigate Washington. Vance doesn’t fit these criteria. But then Trump has never been a traditional candidate. And he probably had more on his mind than 2024 when he put Vance on the ticket. He was probably thinking of 2028 and beyond — and where he wants the GOP to go.

The last time Trump named a running mate, he had more pressing concerns. He was the underdog to Hillary Clinton in 2016. Many Republicans, especially social and religious conservatives, viewed him with suspicion.

Trump selected Mike Pence, who had close ties to evangelical Christian voters and had served 12 years in Congress, to allay their fears. Pence was the governor of a Midwestern state. The idea was that he could help Trump deal with insiders and power brokers.

The Trump-Pence alliance held until Jan. 6, 2021. Now, having narrowly escaped an assassin’s bullet and being constitutionally limited to one more term, Trump is prioritizing loyalty and legacy over qualities that past presidents have looked for in vice-presidential nominees.

Trump appears to value Vance’s evolution from opponent to stalwart. Vance has the zeal of a convert to Trump and to Trumpism and is unlikely to use the vice-presidential residence as a base of operations for pro-immigration, interventionist Republicans. He defends Trump’s conduct after the 2020 election and has adopted Trump’s enemies as his own.

Vance’s biography must have also appealed to Trump. Vance grew up in poverty, joined the Marines after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, wrote a best-selling autobiography and succeeded in business. His working-class roots may appeal to the forgotten men and women of the Rust Belt that are at the heart of Trump’s campaign.

Another potential asset is Vance’s age. Republicans are doing comparatively well with young male voters this year, and Vance may help the party capitalize on this growing advantage. There is a long tail to the Vance nomination. Richard Nixon was also 39 years old when Dwight Eisenhower chose him as a running mate in 1952. Nixon played a central role in American politics for 22 years.

Trump so totally dominates today’s Republican Party that he feels no need to build bridges within it. By choosing Vance, Trump made a clean break with the Republican free traders, entitlement reformers and foreign policy hawks who remain wary of him. He believes he doesn’t need their votes to win, and he’s probably right.

As a relatively recent convert to the Make American Great Again movement, Vance rejects the foreign and economic policies of the supporters of the former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley in this year’s GOP primaries. The Vance nomination is another step in Trump’s plan to dislodge the old guard and make the Republican Party his own — from defeating his critics in primaries or forcing their early retirement to reportedly reviewing and editing a party platform whose brevity, terseness and ambiguities reflect his personality, his preferences, his love of improvisation and his transactional nature.

Under Trump, the GOP has moved away from the Reaganite triad of religious conservatism, free-market capitalism and hawkish internationalism. This updated policy mix hasn’t limited the party’s appeal; it has broadened the party to include more minority voters.

Vance’s political appeal is not entirely clear. Ohio has turned bright red, voting for Trump by an eight-point margin in 2016 and 2020. In a CBS News/YouGov poll released on the eve of the Republican National Convention, he led Biden in every swing state, including the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

And Vance is a newcomer to Washington. He will turn 40 years old in August and would be among the youngest vice presidents in American history. His two years in the Senate would also make him one of the least experienced vice presidents ever. If Trump wins, Vance’s youth and brief tenure inside the Beltway would make him more like Kamala Harris than any other recent vice presidents. Trump would be his wizened mentor. Vance would be the apprentice.

We don’t normally think of Trump as a patient tutor or a long-term planner. But his recent conviction and the attempt on his life might have heightened the stakes in this election and reinforced the necessity not only of victory but also of building something that lasts.

The Vance pick is the clearest sign yet of how Trump sees the GOP’s future. If Vance becomes vice president, he will also become the front-runner for the 2028 Republican nomination. That nomination will be contested, but there is no question that Trump intends for the Republican Party to remain nationalist, populist and “America First.”

Vance, who graduated from Yale Law School, is perhaps the most articulate defender of the MAGA worldview. He is a critic of the financial sector, corporate monopolies, free trade, global intervention and illegal immigration. He has kind words for organized labor and for industrial policy; joined progressive icons like Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Democrat of Massachusetts, in efforts to rein in Wall Street; and praised the work of Lina Khan, the Federal Trade Commission chairwoman. He opposed the national security supplemental bill that provided military aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan this year.

Last week, when Vance spoke at the National Conservatism conference in Washington, D.C., he was greeted as a star. He spoke casually and comfortably. He name-checked prominent policy wonks in the audience like Elbridge Colby, an advocate of foreign policy prioritization that would limit overseas commitments to contain China, and Oren Cass, a critic of libertarian economics.

Vance extolled the growing influence of nationalist populism in the Republican Party. “Even though we didn’t win the debate” over Ukraine aid, he said, “we’re starting to win the debate within our own party, and I think that really matters.” His elevation to the vice presidency would guarantee a MAGA West Wing and empower advocates of foreign policy restraint and of government action to rebuild the defense industrial base and domestic manufacturing.

Vance’s harshest words dealt with immigration. “The real threat to American democracy,” he told the conservative conference, “is that American voters keep on voting for less immigration and our politicians keep on rewarding us with more.” He added, “The thing on immigration is that no one can avoid that it has made our societies poorer, less safe, less prosperous and less advanced.” And he summarized his public philosophy by saying, “American leaders should look out for Americans.”

Trump has riveted global politics for close to a decade. The nomination of his new apprentice suggests that the Trump style, the Trump policies and the Trump appeal to non-college-educated voters of every race and ethnicity will rule the Republican Party for decades to come.

Matthew Continetti is a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of “The Right: The Hundred Year War for American Conservatism.” This article originally appeared in the New York Times.