When will quarterback J.J. McCarthy make his first start for the Vikings?

Rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy will be on the field with the Vikings for the first time this weekend during rookie minicamp, the beginning of what I imagine will be an exercise in managing expectations for coach Kevin O’Connell and the rest of the organization.

There is no greater fascination for a fan base than a young quarterback, particularly one chosen in the top 10 of the draft for the first time in Vikings history.

Sam Darnold is the presumed starter at this point, but the question sure to get asked internally and externally over the next several months is this: When will McCarthy take over the starting role?

To try to gauge that answer, I did two things: I looked at the past 10 years of draft history to see when QBs drafted in the first round tended to make their first start, and I talked to Star Tribune Vikings beat writer Ben Goessling on Wednesday’s Daily Delivery podcast to get insights into how the Vikings will approach this specific situation with McCarthy.

Here are some key takeaways:

* In looking back at drafts from 2014-2023, it became clear that QBs drafted in the first round have almost always tended to play extensively as rookies.

On one hand is the Teddy Bridgewater path, which has been duplicated by several teams with other rookie quarterbacks in the past 10 seasons. Bridgewater, the last QB before McCarthy chosen in the first round by the Vikings (No. 32 overall in 2014), was on the bench the first two weeks of his rookie season, came on in relief in Game 3 and started Game 4.

A dozen other first-round QBs in the past decade started Week 1 of their rookie season, though, including C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson last season. One other who did: Darnold with the Jets in 2018.

Some of those QBs who took over right away have thrived, like Stroud and the Bengals’ Joe Burrow, but there is an argument to be made that putting a rookie QB in too soon can be detrimental to development (as was perhaps the case with Darnold, Young and Zach Wilson).

* While there is pressure to play young QBs right away to sell tickets and maximize rookie contracts, teams that have been more patient have seen rewards. Patrick Mahomes didn’t start until the final game of his rookie season before taking over and starting his tour of world domination in Year 2. Lamar Jackson didn’t make his first start until Week 10 his rookie season.

And of course Green Bay with Jordan Love (and before him Aaron Rodgers) is the ultimate outlier. After being chosen No. 26 overall in 2020, Love didn’t play at all as a rookie. He started one game in 2021 when Rodgers was on the COVID list, but he didn’t take over as starter until 2023, his fourth year.

All three QBs finished in the top 10 of Total QBR in 2023 and all of them led their teams to the playoffs.

So what will the Vikings do with McCarthy? Goessling said patience will be the key word, and that we shouldn’t expect the Vikings to treat the offseason as a competition between McCarthy and Darnold for the No. 1 job. It’s important to remember that McCarthy just turned 21 in January, making him the youngest of this year’s six QBs chosen in the first round.

“I think it’s more about when is J.J. McCarthy ready and when have we seen everything from him that we need to see to say this guy is ready right now to go be a top-flight NFL quarterback,” Goessling said. “And if that doesn’t happen in Week 1, that’s OK.”

Given all that, my best guess is that Darnold will begin the season as the starter while McCarthy takes over somewhere around Week 5. But I’m willing to let that process play out.