There's an old saying that decisions are made by those who show up. The DFL mayoral endorsement process Saturday added some qualifiers to that adage: Decisions are made by those who show up, then endure tedious and soul-crushing 12-hour conventions while eating overpriced food and perhaps even witnessing a fistfight over a park board seat.
It all ended, predictably, in no endorsement.
Ray Dehn scored a victory over an incumbent mayor, but that certainly doesn't make him a lock. Dehn is the poor man's Bernie Sanders, an older white politician with an inauspicious profile at the Legislature who solidified the far left flank by promising to never veto any City Council action supported by activists at Our Revolution Twin Cities. Bad, lazy policy, but good politics apparently. But are there enough voters in the general election who go that far left, or even know who Dehn is? Doubtful.
Jacob Frey, who came in second, is the poor man's R.T. Rybak, a frenetic dervish who would jump up on a bar with a locally made craft beer and tell you how totally awesome Minneapolis is every day. Voters love that pitch, but may find him a bit young for the job, or worse, a bit slick.
Betsy Hodges is the poor man's Hillary, or perhaps she's simply the poor man's Betsy Hodges. She is who she is. If you put her in the top three before, you probably have no reason to change your mind, unless you are one of those people who think she should have been down at the Fourth Precinct screaming at police officers. Endorsements from Council Member Lisa Bender, with a strong populist following, Sen. Al Franken, SEIU and OutFront Minnesota give her solid left credibility.
In a three-way race, name recognition and reliability may be all Hodges needs.
"Hodges is still the favorite," said David Schultz, a Hamline University political science professor who guessed before the convention that there wouldn't be an endorsement. Either way, "Hodges is still in the driver's seat as the incumbent and with the opposition divided. Hodges benefits from the fact that the opposition is fragmented and no one clear alternative has emerged.
"It is funny to think that four years ago she was the outsider challenging the establishment candidate and now she is the establishment candidate benefiting from the fragmented nature of the decentralized politics of Minneapolis," Schultz said. "Right now I think she mostly needs to encourage disunity among her challengers and she should do well into the election. Ranked-choice voting will benefit her with name recognition."
