Who will win — and who will get robbed — at the Oscars on Sunday

Role: Reynolds Woodcock, obsessive London couturier.

In his favor: A joyfully complex role as an enigmatic, vulnerable egomaniac in love. Day-Lewis seems to be a clairvoyant channeling him, not an actor playing him.

Then again: Voters who watch this confounding film on DVD rather than in a full theater may underrate the eccentric humor he weaves into the role, and regard it as a standard tortured-artist yarn.

Role: Winston Churchill in his first days as prime minister.

In his favor: It's uncanny to see an actor lose himself so deeply when playing a legendary figure. Oldman doesn't hide in the amazing prosthetics; he captures the temperament, the amiability and the oratory. (Globes and SAG winner)

Then again: A feel-good episode toward the film's end feels like pure, unadulterated Oscar bait.

Role: Elio Perlman, a 17-year-old exploring his sexuality.

In his favor: He's the protagonist in the upmarket art-house hit of the year, the sort of prestige that draws Academy voters like bees to honey. Coupled with his turn in "Lady Bird," he's become this year's breakout star.

Then again: There's no urgency to give a new arrival to Hollywood the big prize the moment that he appears.

Role: Chris Washington, a photographer in an interracial romance.

In his favor: Kaluuya brings a crucial amount of intelligence and energy to the role. The little indie wouldn't have been such a hit without him.

Then again: The last time a male performer won for a straight-up horror movie was Fredric March in 1931. And it's been 15 years since best actor went to a black man (Forest Whitaker).

Role: A mild-mannered lawyer takes on a tough case.

In his favor: It's a real stretch for Washington, who usually plays Mr. Take-Charge, to tackle a character so meek and nerdy. And he pulls it off surprisingly well.

Then again: The Academy usually favors commanding characters who are larger than life, not smaller. And compared to Oldman's full-body resurrection as Churchill, a Don King head of hair isn't much.

Role: Ben Bradlee, editor of the Washington Post.

In his favor: He turns a role that might be a pure vanilla history lesson into an enjoyable blend of skepticism, cynicism and gruff guts.

Then again: In "All the President's Men," Jason Robards didn't just play Bradlee, he immortalized him — and won the Oscar for it. So why repeat the exercise?

BEST ACTRESS | There's one sure bet, but all the nominees are worthy

Role: Mildred Hayes, a raging, grieving mother.

In her favor: A great role as a sarcastic, smug antihero. She sparks fire from Mildred's alienation, her hard-edged humor and her one-woman assault against male authority. (Globes and SAG winner)

Then again: She won the 1996 prize as sweet-tempered Marge Gunderson in "Fargo." Is one prize for nutty regionalism enough?

Role: Elisa Esposito, a mute cleaning lady in love with an amphibian man.

In her favor: Elisa may be speechless, but Hawkins is pitch-perfect. Her adventure — discovering love in an unfriendly world — is a remarkably sensitive, sexually candid feat of acting.

Then again: The sci-fi genre could create a significant disadvantage. The scenes of bloody violence and full nudity aren't much help.

Role: Disgraced figure skater Tonya Harding.

In her favor: Absolutely everything. She gives us a ridiculously enjoyable character who is the untrustworthy narrator of her own life. Even in tacky homemade costumes and permed hair, Robbie is rapturous fun.

Then again: Voters prefer films filled with hope and optimism. This cynical comedy replaces smiles with morbid giggles.

Role: Christine McPherson, a Catholic high schooler aiming for an exciting life.

In her favor: As a secretly vulnerable, well-meaning but inept dork, she is delicious. She encapsulates both youth's wounds and its unbeatable hope. The spectrum of adolescent foibles has never seemed so charming.

Then again: The quiet, outwardly mundane role might not stand out in this category.

Role: Katharine Graham, a newspaper publisher finding her footing in a man's world.

In her favor: A sophisticated performance as a woman evolving from polite, passive femininity to polite, decisive, feminist agency. Every scene with her rings true, even when she's not front and center.

Then again: The other nominees' work elevates them to a career peak. Wouldn't it be good to give them a chance?

Role: Molly Bloom, promoter of underground poker games for rich men.

In her favor: In a smart, ethically elastic role, Chastain rat-a-tats nonstop smart-aleck dialogue and squeezes tasty juice out of a real-life character.

Then again: Chastain plays resolute women more often than Ben Stiller plays glum middle-aged men. It's talented work in a repetitive package.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR | Who'll win, and who deserves it more

Role: Jason Dixon, a doofus police deputy.

In his favor: Swinging from giggle-your-butt off comedy to crushing drama in a role that subverts character clichés, Rockwell crawls from racism and corruption to a hard-won moral victory. (Globes and SAG winner)

Then again: Some voters might feel his shifting from Barney Fife to Travis Bickle and back is outlandishly over the top.

Role: Toxic billionaire and ruthless grandpa J. Paul Getty.

In his favor: He's remarkably good in the role inherited from the disgraced Kevin Spacey. It's amazing that the old pro (88!) could nail those Hail Mary reshoots at rocket speed over just nine days. And no, "nine" is not a typo.

Then again: No downside; this prize favors villains. Plummer, already an Oscar winner, twirls a good mustache.

Role: Bobby Hicks, manager of the low-budget Magic Kingdom Motel.

In his favor: Dafoe may never have played a person as realistic and authentic as this gentle, good-hearted man. He's the emotional crux of the film.

Role: Bill Willoughby, a respected police chief with a terminal illness.

In his favor: He's pure class as the ethical center of a roller-coaster revenge thriller. It's a three-dimensional role and he fills every quadrant with fine pieces of acting.

Then again: He has never won a prize in the competitive big leagues. For his talent to be underappreciated is simply wrong, but a trend is a trend.

Role: Giles, a sympathetic friend to a mute woman.

In his favor: Among a great cast, he's a standout. Playing a hopelessly romantic gay man trying to find his place in early-1960s America, his lonely-hearts life parallels the heroine's, but to sillier comic highs and sadder isolated lows.

Then again: It's hard to steal a movie away from supporting co-stars like Michael Shannon and Michael Stuhlbarg.

Role: Oliver, a gay grad student exploring a summer romance.

In his favor: Screen presence, movie-star good looks and a challenging role. He subverts a lot of expectations as a 24-year-old history scholar who falls in love with a professor's teenage son.

Then again: The thematically similar "Moonlight" won in this category last year. Could it have hurt him?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS | There's one clear favorite in the field

Role: LaVona Golden, Tonya Harding's spiteful mother.

In her favor: Janney is on fire here, turning a gargoyle of a dysfunctional mom into a creature both horrifying and hilarious. No other nominee plays so magnetic a character. (Globes and SAG winner)

Then again: If voters can't see the painful comedy gold in emotional abuse and profane dialogue, Janney's precisely calibrated hatefulness will go unrewarded.

Role: Florence Jackson, the quietly strong wife of a tenant farmer.

In her favor: Blige totally remade herself for the part. Her performance tells us everything about what Florence is feeling. And there's the novelty of an R&B/ hip-hop star acting her heart out onscreen.

Then again: The film had a minimal release in theaters. The prize is more likely to go to an industry lifer.

Role: Cyril Woodcock, the curt, formidable sister of a fashion designer.

In her favor: A thoughtful, subtle, and effective performance as a prim workaholic who is her obsessive brother's guardian in business and life.

Then again: Supporting players in the strange, unconventional, downright weird world of Paul Thomas Anderson films get nominations. They do not win Oscars. At least not yet.

Role: Marion McPherson, the brusque, long-suffering mother of the title character.

In her favor: She plays great verbal volleyball with Saoirse Ronan, not stealing scenes but enriching them. You can see where her stubborn, smart daughter got her spirit. She's tough love personified.

Then again: She's already won an Emmy and a Tony. Maybe adding the Oscar would bring her trophy shelf crashing down.

Role: Zelda Fuller, a heroic cleaner at a secret government facility.

In her favor: Spencer knows how to cock an eye, launch a line and kidnap an audience better than anyone. Her back story makes her more interesting than the standard-issue faithful friend.

Then again: She won this cate­gory in 2012 for "The Help." Will voters reward her again for playing a sassy servant sticking it to the powers-that-be?

Role: Beth Gardner, the tiny but terrifying mother of a comatose woman.

In her favor: She gives real-life resonance to a comedy role, playing a mama bear who will claw your head off. It's easy to look past the charming central love story and fall head over heels for Hunter instead.

Then again: There's sort of an extended-cameo feeling to Hunter's role.