RandBall: Who would be the starting pitcher for Twins in a pivotal playoff Game 3?

One of my specialties, both personally and professionally, is planning for imaginary scenarios that might never happen.

My latest fixation is this: Who would be the starting pitcher for the Twins in a pivotal, winner-take-all Game 3 of a wild card series?

This presupposes, of course, that the Twins make the postseason and play in the wild card round. If you have only been paying attention to the Twins in the last couple of weeks, this notion might seem far-fetched. But in reality, it is a growing near-certainty.

For as rough as things have been for Minnesota lately, with 10 losses in their last 15 games, some of their top rivals in the wild card race have been even worse. The Red Sox have lost four in a row and nine of their last 12 games. The Royals, after pulling even with Cleveland in the division race just a week ago, have now lost seven consecutive games.

The Twins are 5½ games up on the next-closest team that is chasing a final wild card spot, and Minnesota has only 24 games remaining this season. As I talked about on Wednesday’s Daily Delivery podcast, FanGraphs gives the Twins a 95.5% chance of reaching the playoffs but just a 14% chance of catching Cleveland in the AL Central race.

It is very likely the Twins will make the playoffs as a wild card. In that best-of-three opening round, the Twins’ first two pitchers would be no-brainers: Pablo Lopez, who was great in the postseason last year and has a 2.06 ERA in his last nine starts, in Game 1. Then Bailey Ober, who outside of one awful start a couple outings ago has been masterful since mid-June, in Game 2.

If the first two games were a split, though, it would raise that interesting question. What do you do in Game 3? The rest of the Twins’ regular current rotation is filled by three rookies. Louie Varland is slated to pitch multiple innings Wednesday after opener Ronny Henriquez starts. If veteran Chris Paddack, who made 17 starts this season, is able to come back from injury in time for the playoffs, it almost certainly will be in a bullpen role.

The best option at this point might be rookie David Festa, who turned in another solid outing in a 2-1 loss to Tampa Bay on Tuesday. He doesn’t have as much experience as fellow rookie Simeon Woods Richardson, but Festa appears to be ascending while Woods Richardson is fading. Festa wouldn’t work deep into a game, but he’s capable of throwing four or five good innings and getting through an order twice.

How the Twins would navigate a longer playoff run with only two proven starters is an entirely different question. I’m not ready to expend any energy on that one yet.

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