Wildfire smoke may drift into Minnesota throughout the fall, forecasts say

Summer is coming to a close in Minnesota — but the wildfire smoke that has plagued the state intermittently all season likely will hang around, forecasters say.

For at least the next few weeks, weather models predict that hot and dry conditions will persist in Canada, fueling an already record-breaking fire season. According to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre, 15 million hectares have burned this year. That's an area that could cover about two-thirds of Minnesota, and roughly double the area burned in Canada in 1989, the prior record-setting year.

Wildfires up north usually are contained by the time snow starts falling, said Matt Taraldsen, a supervisory meteorologist at the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency.

But this year, "it will be winter and snowfall that actually puts these fires out in Canada," Taraldsen said.

Right now, the most intense fire activity is in the Northwest Territories, a sparsely populated province in the far north of the country.

"On a positive note, the smoke that reaches [Minnesota] from these fires is typically not as heavy as we've seen earlier this summer and in 2021," wrote David Brown, an air quality meteorologist at MPCA, in an email.

Though last year was a much quieter fire season, some smoke did arrive in Minnesota from the Northwest Territories that October, Brown wrote. Because the haze had traveled so far, the air quality index only rose to the upper end of the yellow or "moderate" category, which doesn't trigger warnings for people with breathing conditions or other concerns.

There is a chance that fires will ignite closer to the U.S. border, Taraldsen said, or even within Minnesota. This year's persistent drought and recent record-breaking stretches of heat are factors. The most dangerous period will be after leaves start to fall, but before snow arrives, he said.

In Canada, so many blazes are burning that there simply aren't enough people to put them all out, said Taraldsen, who participates in weekly calls on wildfires with surrounding U.S. states and Canadian officials.

"They've basically been taking the limited amount of resources they have and focusing on cities," he said.

He said Minnesota likely would be much quicker to extinguish a wildland fire should it arrive in earnest this fall.

Allissa Reynolds, the wildfire prevention supervisor for the Department of Natural Resources, agreed that the state has plenty of firefighters available — including many part-timers who are called up in times of extreme pressure.

The state has seen its share of blazes this year already, including one in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness that officials said was started by humans. Reynolds said that in Minnesota 98% of wildland ignitions are caused by people.

That means there's a potential to prevent wildfires by changing behavior. A bonfire or a fire to clear leaves and debris needs to be put out cold, lest an ember flares up later, Reynolds said. People riding ATVs should not park them on dry grass, and farmers who are haying should use well-maintained equipment.

Owners also should take care to protect remote homes and cabins by clearing leaves off roofs, moving firewood at least 30 feet away, removing dead or dry foliage from around the house and keeping driveways clear to allow emergency personnel access in case a fire starts, Reynolds said.