Former President Donald Trump rallied in Minnesota three times in the three months leading up to the 2020 election. He’s been less present in the North Star state this year, with his latest visit in July.
Will Donald Trump return to Minnesota before Election Day?
The former president held three Minnesota rallies in the three months leading up to the 2020 election. He’s had less of a presence this year and has spent considerably more time in Wisconsin.
The Minnesota Star Tribune
October 11, 2024 at 12:00PM
Trump was here in May to headline the state Republican Party’s annual Lincoln Reagan Dinner. And he visited again in late July for a rally in St. Cloud with his newly announced running mate, Ohio U.S. Sen. JD Vance.
Vance is scheduled to attend a private, high-dollar fundraiser in Minneapolis on Monday. But it’s unclear whether the former president who once vowed to win Minnesota will come back here before Election Day, Nov. 5.
“As of right now, I really haven’t heard anything,” Minnesota GOP deputy chairwoman Donna Bergstrom said. “[Trump’s] got a busy schedule. I know he’s been in Michigan quite a bit, he’s been over in Wisconsin quite a bit.”
It’s a stark departure from four years ago, when Trump held rallies in Minnesota in August, September and October. Trump pledged to win Minnesota that year after he lost the state by about 1.5 percentage points to Hillary Clinton in 2016. But he ended up losing to President Joe Biden by an even larger margin, about 7 percentage points.
Trump again signaled interest in Minnesota earlier this year. His campaign announced it would open eight field offices in the state, and some of his closest allies expressed confidence in winning Minnesota while at the Republican National Convention in July.
Then Biden dropped out of the race. Vice President Kamala Harris stepped in and named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz her running mate.
A Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 poll conducted last month found that Harris and Walz held a 48%-43% lead over Trump and Vance in Minnesota. Harris hasn’t been to the state since she became the nominee.
History also isn’t on Trump’s side. No Republican presidential candidate has won Minnesota since Richard Nixon in 1972.
Minnesota DFL chairman Ken Martin said Democrats “are going to take nothing for granted as we work to keep Minnesota blue.”
“With less than a month to go, Donald Trump is scheduled to spend more time rallying in California and New York than in Minnesota,” Martin said in a statement. “But the fact that Donald Trump is abandoning Minnesota is no excuse for us to let our foot off the gas.”
Republicans including Bergstrom insist the Trump campaign is still investing in Minnesota through on-the-ground organizing. The Republican Party said in late September it had trained 1,400 “Trump Force” volunteer captains at the campaign’s Minnesota field offices.
“They set up a very strong foundation here in Minnesota with a lot of ground forces and an action program,” Bergstrom said. “We’re seeing a great deal of success with that.”
Kelly Fenton, a former Minnesota GOP deputy chair and state legislator, said she also hasn’t heard anything about Trump coming back to the state before Election Day. But Fenton, who served as a Minnesota delegate to the Republican National Convention, didn’t rule out the possibility.
“It wouldn’t be unheard of for him to do a last-minute fly-in to Minnesota,” Fenton said.
Hamline University political science Prof. David Schultz said there isn’t as much upside for Trump to campaign in Minnesota as there is in competitive battleground states.
“If he can prevent Harris from winning Pennsylvania, he’s just about guaranteed that he can win the race,” Schultz said. “Every dollar or every minute he spends in Minnesota is one dollar and one minute he can’t spend in North Carolina or Pennsylvania.”
But Schultz said there are some strategic benefits to campaigning in Minnesota. The state’s major newspapers and television stations reach well into western Wisconsin.
“I thought Minnesota was kind of like a two-fer. Campaign here and it gives you some benefit also in Wisconsin, especially western Wisconsin,” Schultz said. “But [Trump] hasn’t been doing that.”
Wisconsin gets more attention
Wisconsin is once again expected to be a critical election battleground. Biden won the state in 2020 and Trump carried it in 2016.
The Trump-Vance and Harris-Walz campaigns have spent considerable time in the Badger State over the past couple of months, including in some western Wisconsin communities that are within easy driving distance for Minnesotans.
Trump recently visited Wisconsin four times in a span of eight days. Harris campaigned in Ripon, Wis., alongside Republican Liz Cheney last week. Walz is scheduled to make campaign stops in Eau Claire and Green Bay on Monday.
Craig Gilbert, a fellow at Marquette University’s Lubar Center for Public Policy Research and Civic Education, said the Minnesota governor’s presence on the ticket could help Harris in western Wisconsin, where voters are more familiar with him.
“The rural parts of western Wisconsin are not as red as the rural parts of northern and central Wisconsin,” Gilbert said. “If you were looking for a Walz effect, I think that’s kind of where you’d look because of … the spillover from Minnesota media and people working in Minnesota.”
In 2020, 881 people in Mountain Iron voted for Biden, 876 for Trump.
