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Olson: Walz looks ready to take on a third term. Will voters give it to him?

The ‘One Minnesota’ slogan might not have the same ring this time around.

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The Minnesota Star Tribune
July 20, 2025 at 1:00PM
Governor Tim Walz addressed possible cuts from the U.S. Department of Education in Fridley, Minnesota, on Wednesday, March 12, 2025.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who seems like he's aiming for a third term. (Richard Tsong-Taatarii/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

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Gov. Tim Walz looks and sounds like he’s getting ready for the steep climb of running for a third consecutive term.

The governor’s not ready to declare that he’s in the race, and it’s hard to blame him. These are turbulent times and Walz has been at the epicenter of it for the past year.

Consider his ride: A year ago he was the surprise pick for the national ticket; then he joined a breakneck three-month sprint of a campaign before losing a national election.

He returned to Minnesota, shell-shocked at the loss, to deal with a sharply divided Legislature that eventually got down to the heavy work of putting together a two-year budget.

By May, Walz was participating fully in negotiations and, along with his DFL allies, able to protect almost all of the progressive policy changes passed in the transformative 2023 session. The 2025 budget deal, the governor noted with pride, came without the brinksmanship of a government shutdown.

But Walz didn’t get a victory lap or even a moment to celebrate. Days after the budget passed, Walz’s friend and closest political ally, former House Speaker Melissa Hortman, was killed by an assassin in her home along with her husband, Mark.

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As governor, Walz is an easy target for criticism, but let’s give the guy a momentary break and some credit as he ponders his future.

There are reasons no Minnesota governor has won a third consecutive term. They’re not easily won. Voters grow weary and want to turn the page. Who doesn’t love a fresh start, the promise of someone new and exciting who will make life better?

The governor knows that winning again requires making a “compelling case” to voters, and he said that if he determines he’s acquired too many barnacles, he won’t run. He said he expects to decide at some point after the State Fair.

During a recent 90-minute interview, Walz was relaxed and confident in his record, openly and thoughtfully responding to questions on wide-ranging topics from national politics to copper-wire theft causing streetlights to go dark outside his Summit Avenue residence.

Did he sound defeated and ready to quit? No. Did he sound like he’s ready to run again? Not exactly. But he does sound like he has a clear plan on how he will arrive at a decision. He seems somehow rejuvenated.

For one, he’s back on an enthusiastic running routine and so pleased with his progress that he may increase his fall race goal from a 10-miler to a half marathon, 13.1 miles. Those are fairly impressive distances for a 61-year-old with a demanding day job.

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Walz continues to authentically project as an everyman with auto-repair skills, a closet full of Buffalo plaid, rumpled jeans and big dad energy. But he’s much more astute than he appears from a distance. The altered political map in Minnesota is painful to this son of rural Nebraska who spent much of his adult life teaching and coaching in Mankato.

In his recent interview with the Editorial Board of the Minnesota Star Tribune, Walz recalled the questions he faced in 2018, when he was running for governor for the first time after a dozen years as the congressman representing southern Minnesota.

He recalled reporters pressing him on how he could possibly win over Twin Cities voters. Just seven years later, Walz and his fellow DFLers can bank on stockpiling votes in Minneapolis and St. Paul. But like Democrats across the country, the Minnesota DFLers are forced to scrounge for scraps of support in exurbs and rural areas.

The widening urban-rural divide confounds the governor and breaks his heart.

“We were probably the last place for it to happen,” Walz said. “And I thought I could be more of a firewall on it.”

He doesn’t have a magic wand to reclaim support. “In America right now is there somebody that can transcend that? I don’t know,” Walz said. “My case that I make is we have to keep trying.”

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The governor has tried through policy. His administration restored local government aid, a boon to rural communities, to levels not seen since before the cuts by Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty.

But the erosion of DFL support has continued, and Walz won’t be able to use the “One Minnesota” slogan from his first campaign if he runs again in 2026. The notion of a common good seems to have disappeared, but Walz won’t give up on greater Minnesota or the spirit of “One Minnesota.”

“I just don’t think that’s where a majority of Americans are at; they don’t view success as somebody else being miserable,” he said.

Walz also believes that rural Minnesota will start to feel the sting of President Donald Trump’s recently passed Medicaid cuts sooner than 2026, when up to 250,000 Minnesotans are projected to lose health care coverage.

“The economics around rural health care just don’t work and I don’t see how they get out of that,” he said.

If he runs again, he’ll provide Minnesotans a strong and honorable choice. Walz has spent his life in public service and lacks even a passing familiarity with personal wealth.

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He has declined pay raises for his work, taking a salary of $127,629. The state’s compensation council has suggested a $174,775 salary, but Walz doesn’t want pay to be an issue.

His two terms have not been an easy ride. His tenure didn’t coincide with an economic glide path. He had to manage a COVID-19 pandemic, the murder of George Floyd and civil unrest.

Does Walz effortlessly exude eloquence in every circumstance or handle each crisis flawlessly? Of course not. He does his best with the information he has at the moment and mostly owns his mistakes.

The governor is entitled to feel confident about his work to protect and extend rights to some of our state’s more vulnerable populations, from school kids to immigrants, women and LGBTQ residents.

He’s also kept a tight hold on the state’s finances through economic transition by topping off the rainy day funds as a buffer to potential downturns.

So how can Walz sell his candidacy to voters this time? He said he’ll make the case that “government serves a purpose, your tax dollars serve a purpose,” whether that’s through life-saving storm warnings, food for kids or safe roads and bridges.

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Maybe at some point in the coming months, working-class voters who embraced Trump will start to realize they’ve been sold a bill of goods. The price of eggs and gas haven’t come down, while Trump has cut taxes on the super-rich and sells cologne and touts crypto.

“I wish you could cut taxes like that,” Walz said. “I wish you could put tariffs on people and the result of that would be a booming economy with wealth spread out.”

Instead, Walz said, “The reality is the economy’s going to get worse for people.”

If that forecast proves true, don’t blame Walz. He’s still working to help all Minnesotans — even those who appear to have soured on him. Maybe someday they’ll see it.

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about the writer

about the writer

Rochelle Olson

Editorial Columnist

Rochelle Olson is a columnist on the Minnesota Star Tribune Editorial Board focused on politics and governance.

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