Will Lebanon finally elect a president after a 2-year vacuum?

BEIRUT — Lebanon's parliament is set to convene Thursday to attempt to elect a head of state for the 13th time during a presidential vacuum that's lasted over two years. This time, analysts said, they might succeed.

The session comes weeks after a tenuous ceasefire agreement halted a 14-month conflict between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, and as Lebanon's leaders seek international assistance for reconstruction.

The primary contenders for the presidency include the Lebanese army's commander, Joseph Aoun, who is widely seen as the preferred candidate of the United States and Saudi Arabia. The candidate previously supported by Hezbollah, Suleiman Frangieh, on Wednesday announced he was pulling out of the race and endorsed Aoun.

The Lebanese military has a key role in sustaining the ceasefire, as its forces are tasked with ensuring that Hezbollah pulls its fighters and weapons out of southern Lebanon.

Here's why the vacuum has dragged on for so long and what to expect Thursday:

Why has it taken so long to elect a president?

Lebanon's fractious sectarian power-sharing system is prone to deadlock, both for political and procedural reasons. The small, crisis-battered Mediterranean country has been through several extended presidential vacancies, with the longest lasting nearly 2 1/2 years between May 2014 and October 2016. It ended when former President Michel Aoun was elected.

After Aoun's term ended in October 2022, Hezbollah backed Frangieh, leader of the Marada Movement, a political party with a strong influence in northern Lebanon. Frangieh also had close ties with former Syrian president Bashar Assad.

While Joseph Aoun — no relation to the former president — never officially announced his candidacy, he was widely understood to be the main rival to Frangieh. Meanwhile, political factions opposed to Hezbollah put forward a series of candidates.

The last presidential vote in parliament in June 2023 broke down after the bloc led by Hezbollah withdrew following the first round of voting, where Frangieh came in behind the opposition candidate, Jihad Azour. The withdrawal broke the quorum in the 128-member house.

Michael Young, a senior editor at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, said the current election ''has taken a long time simply because parliament, reflecting the reality of the country, is very divided, and actually did not respect the constitutional provisions to hold electoral session open until a president was elected.''

The situation was exacerbated because parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally, used parliamentary rules ''more as an instrument of blockage than an instrument of consensus,'' lifting sessions whenever he ''did not want a majority to develop around the candidacies he did not support,'' Young said.

During the current impasse, a five-member committee consisting of the United States, France, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar has held a series of meetings aimed at negotiating an end to the presidential vacuum.

Who are the main contenders?

— Army commander Joseph Aoun, 60, is widely seen as the frontrunner to become Lebanon's next president, particularly since Frangieh's withdrawal.

Aoun was appointed to the current post in March 2017 and had been set to retire in January 2024, but his term was extended twice during the Israel-Hezbollah conflict.

Aoun, who has kept a low profile and avoided media appearances, never formally announced his candidacy but is widely seen as the preferred candidate of the United States, which provides significant financial support to the Lebanese army.

Under normal circumstances, a presidential candidate in Lebanon can be elected by a two-thirds majority in the first round of voting or by a simple majority in the second round if there is no winner in the first round. But because of the constitutional issues surrounding his election, Aoun would need a two-thirds majority even in the second round.

— Jihad Azour, who has been backed by factions opposed to Hezbollah, is a prominent economist who has served as the director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund since 2017. As finance minister from 2005 to 2008, he led some reforms including modernizing the tax and customs systems.

— Elias al-Baysari is the acting head of Lebanon's General Security agency, which is responsible for border control and historically seen as close to Hezbollah. His career in national security began in 1986 when he joined the Lebanese army. His early roles included key positions within Beirut's port security and the army's intelligence division. In 2005, al-Baysari joined General Security. He also holds a doctorate in law.

What are the chances a president will be elected Thursday?

The withdrawal of Frangieh likely means ''the deal is done'' and Aoun will likely be elected, Young said.

''Hezbollah is in a weaker position due to escalating tensions with Israel, challenges in Syria and domestic discontent,'' Salamey said. ''It now needs the protection of a functioning state to rebuild and attract international aid.''

According to Young, ''Lebanon today is effectively under some sort of foreign trusteeship.''