She’s unstoppable.
Will the Grammys stop Taylor Swift’s juggernaut?
She could set records if she wins album, song or record of the year on Sunday.
Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour broke Ticketmaster servers and set all kinds of records for the biggest-grossing tour and most-elated concertgoers ever. Her Eras Tour movie became the biggest concert film of all time. She was the only artist to have three No. 1 songs on the Hot 100 in 2023. She surpassed Elvis Presley for the most appearances at No. 1 on the album charts for a solo artist.
Oh, yeah, Taylor Swift also was named Time magazine person of the year. And now she’s headed to the Super Bowl, not as a performer, but as the gal pal of Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce.
Well, the Grammy Awards on Sunday may end the Taylor juggernaut before the San Francisco 49ers even get a chance.
Her “Midnights” is a finalist for album of the year. If she triumphs, she will become the first artist to capture four album-of-the-year trophies. And she’s only 34.
She is the betting favorite, with a 70% chance of winning, according to ActionNetwork.com. She’s the favorite for everything at the moment, isn’t she? But will the Grammy voters crown her?
Each of Swift’s three previous winners in this category — “Fearless,” “1989″ and “Folklore” — broke new artistic ground for her. “Midnights,” while a laudable project about late-night musings that was the runaway bestseller among this year’s nominees, didn’t have quite the “wow” factor of her previous Grammy grabbers. It’s not a defining era, so to speak, and she’s whiffed in these finals twice previously (with “Red” and “Evermore”). Still, she has the kind of momentum right now that Michael Jackson had in the “Thriller” era.
Let’s look at Swift’s competition. There is Jon Batiste, the only man among the eight finalists in a category totally dominated by women for the first time. He surprised pundits when he snagged the best album Grammy in 2022 for his debut, “We Are.” It was far from a bestseller; in fact, it was rather low-profile. A dark horse contender, he was known chiefly as the bandleader on “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert.” But voters admired his craft. And, when it comes to the Grammys, craft often trumps sales or popularity.
Batiste’s current Grammy finalist is “World Music Radio,” a wildly eclectic collection of global, funk and pop sounds that certainly scores for diversity, equity and inclusion. It’s a combination of the experimental and the cleverly crafted. Is it accessible enough to win favor with 12,000 Grammy voters?
If it’s about popularity, then SZA’s “SOS” and Olivia Rodrigo’s “Guts” will be thick in the race. Both hit No. 1 and earned widespread critical praise. R&B star SZA’s disc spent 10 weeks at No. 1, the longest of any of the finalists. This year’s top nominee with nine nods, SZA would be the first Black woman to triumph in this category since Lauryn Hill 25 years ago. Pop supernova Rodrigo delivered on the promise of her remarkable 2021 debut, “Sour,” (and best new artist Grammy) by offering a stellar sophomore album of angsty pop and punk. Will her age, 20, be in her favor or work against her?
As for the other nominees, Miley Cyrus is more likely to receive recognition for her hit “Flowers” than for her solid album “Endless Summer Vacation.” Also on the outside looking in are Lana Del Rey’s standout “Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd,” her best album to date, and Janelle Monáe’s chill “The Age of Pleasure,” her least adventurous album to date.
The dark horse is Boygenius’ “The Record.” The supergroup trio of Julien Baker, Phoebe Bridgers and Lucy Dacus is beloved by indie-rock fans. And sometimes indie favorites — see Arcade Fire’s “The Suburbs” in 2011 and Beck’s “Morning Phase” in 2015 — have surprisingly emerged victorious in this category. The Recording Academy has aggressively recruited more younger members as well as industry workers of color. Therefore, don’t be surprised if Boygenius or SZA win.
If album of the year doesn’t rain on Taylor’s parade, the categories of record and song of the year could. She has never snared either prize.
For top record, Swift’s “Anti-Hero,” a neurotic rumination of self-analysis, faces stiff competition from Cyrus’ hugely popular and carefully pruned “Flowers,” Rodrigo’s brilliantly dramatic “Vampire” and Billie Eilish’s dreamy “What Was I Made For?” from the “Barbie” movie.
Also nominated are Batiste’s “Worship,” Boygenius’ “Not Strong Enough,” Victoria Monét’s “On My Mama” and SZA’s “Kill Bill.”
The Eilish and Rodrigo records, sonic opposites though they were, compelled me to turn up the car radio. Both are exceptional.
Taylor could end up 0-for-5 in this category lifetime because I’m betting on Eilish. This would make her the first woman to win this prize three times as well as the first artist to win three times in the span of five years. (She previously scored for “Bad Guy” and “Everything I Wanted.”)
As for song of the year, Swift has been shut out in this category despite accumulating a now-record seven nominations over the years. Once again, the contest probably comes down to Swift, Cyrus and Eilish. Cyrus has never won a Grammy while Swift and Eilish each have a shelf full. I think Eilish collects another one.
The competition for best new artist doesn’t involve Swift — unless you count two stars associated with her. That would be pop singer/songwriter Gracie Abrams, a friend and opening act, and rapper Ice Spice, who is heard on the remix of Swift’s Grammy-nominated “Karma,” the tune that closed concerts on the Eras Tour.
Vying with them are electronica artist Fred Again, country star Jelly Roll, Disney actor-turned-R&B singer Coco Jones, alt-folkie Noah Kahan, R&B star Victoria Monét and the War and Treaty, a husband-wife gospel-infused Americana duo.
Historically, the best new artist trophy has usually gone to the act that had the most commercial success. That would favor Kahan, an autumn-loving crooner in the Mumford & Sons vein who is now selling out arenas, and Jelly Roll, the ex-con who has transitioned from indie rapper to bona fide country hero with the hits “Son of a Sinner” and “Need a Favor.” I suspect Jelly Roll’s powerful, redemptive story will reward him and establish him, at age 39, as the oldest best new artist ever.
Grammy Awards
Host: Trevor Noah.
Performers include: Burna Boy, Luke Combs, Billie Eilish, Billy Joel, Dua Lipa, Joni Mitchell, Olivia Rodrigo, Travis Scott, SZA, U2.
When: 7 p.m. Sun.
Where: CBS, Ch. 4, Paramount+.
Critics’ picks for entertainment in the week ahead.