Will Uber and Lyft really leave Minneapolis? Maybe. Here’s how it could play out.

Is Uber leaving Minneapolis?!?

We’re getting that question a lot lately. Both Uber and Lyft have vowed to leave the city, and perhaps the entire state, if a rideshare pay ordinance approved earlier this month by the Minneapolis City Council takes effect.

UPDATE: The council overrode Mayor Jacob Frey’s veto Thursday afternoon, and both companies said they’re leaving. Here’s that story.

They’re the only two licensed rideshare companies in Minneapolis, and the taxi cabs scene isn’t what it used to be. So if both companies do cease operations, it could be a big deal for people who use the ride-hailing apps.

But it’s far from a done deal. There are a lot of ways the companies could be satisfied, starting with a key council vote Thursday afternoon, before Uber and Lyft would shut down. It’s also possible they’re bluffing.

The council is scheduled to meet at 1 p.m. The meeting will be streamed via the city’s YouTube channel.

Here’s how it could play out:

On March 7, the Minneapolis City Council, by a 9-4 vote, approved a plan that would pay drivers a minimum of $1.40 per mile and 51 cents per minute.

Uber and Lyft have both said they can’t make enough profits if they have to pay drivers that much. That’s why they’re threatening to leave.

Frey vetoed the plan the next day, and set a special meeting for Thursday for the council to vote whether to uphold or override his veto.

If that 9-4 vote holds, his veto is overridden. If any fewer than nine vote to override, the veto stands.

If Frey’s veto stands: The ordinance is dead, and Uber and Lyft aren’t going anywhere, for now. Frey and the council can still talk about increasing driver pay.

If the council overrides: The ordinance moves ahead with a May 1 effective date, and the potential Uber/Lyft exodus is still in play.

Between Thursday and May 1, the council and Frey could agree to soften the driver pay plan. Frey has said he believes Uber and Lyft would accept a similar change with lower minimum pay requirements.

A recent state-commissioned study suggested that the ordinance could achieve its stated goal -- getting drivers the equivalent of minimum wage -- with significantly lower per-mile and per-minute minimums.

Another option: The council and Frey could push back the date the ordinance takes effect.

Lastly, it’s also possible the state could pre-empt the city’s ordinance by enacting a statewide standard amenable to Uber and Lyft. However, this would require the Legislature and Gov. Tim Walz to act before May 1.

If nothing changes before May 1: The ordinance goes into effect.

Uber and Lyft could ultimately decide to stay despite the driver pay increases taking effect.

Or, May 1 could be the last we see of them.

May 1 is also the soonest that any new rideshare companies could be licensed in the city. There’s talk of this, but no entity had formally begun the process as of last week.

There’s only one major American city where Uber and Lyft have shut down after local leaders passed laws the companies found unacceptable: Austin, Texas. They returned about a year later after the state legislature and governor created a statewide standard that rendered the Austin ordinance meaningless.