Snowy Saturday Morning (@TNelsonWX/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Windblown Rain and Snow by Midweek
A light rain-snow mix is possible early today as temperatures push into the 40s by afternoon. A quiet Monday gives way to an icy mix changing to rain Tuesday (with more T-storms). Another outbreak of tornadoes is expected over Iowa and Illinois, with an ice storm for Duluth. I see mostly rain for the Twin Cities, ending as windswept snow on Wednesday. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
April 2, 2023 at 2:30AM
3rd Snowiest Season at MSP
The official tally at the MSP Airport was 8.5" of snow from Friday's storm, which brings us to the 3rd snowiest season on record with 89.7". If you're keeping track, we only need 9 more inches to get us to the snowiest season on record!
Snow Reports
There were some pretty impressive snowfall amounts from our latest storm system. Some of the heaviest were around a foot or more!
Rare Blizzard Warning For Twin Cities
Widespread winter weather headlines were posted across much of the southern half of the state, including the Twin Cities Metro, which was under a Blizzard Warning through early AM Saturday. Blizzard Warnings for the core of the metro are quite rare. In fact, the last time the Twin Cities had a blizzard warning was back on December 23, 2020.
More Snow This Week?
Another potent storm system is poised to move into the Central US midweek with another round of strong to severe thunderstorms in the Central & Southern US with areas of heavy snow farther north. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty on where the heaviest snow will fall across the Midwest, but stay tuned as this storm continues to develop.
Tornado Outbreak Friday
Friday was an incredibly active day with widely scattered thunderstorms from Minnesota to the Lower Mississippi Valley. Several devastating tornadoes were reported from Iowa to Arkansas, which unfortunately caused some catastrophic damage in some communities across the Central US. The image of the tornado below was captured by Tim Jones in Sigourney, Iowa and was shared on social media.
Significant Storm Reports on Friday
The storm report map from Friday showed widespread large hail, damaging winds and several tornadoes across the Mississippi River Valley. A number of tornadoes caused significant damage, including Little Rock, AR, where several injuries were reported Friday afternoon. The preliminary reports suggest that there were nearly 60 tornadoes (red dots below).
Rare HIGH RISK Day
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center upgraded their severe threat to a HIGH RISK midday Friday for the potential of strong tornadoes and significant wind damage. High Risks are a level 5 out of 5 and are typically reserved for the most significant severe weather threats. The last time there was a High Risk was back in March of 2021. In fact, there have only been 3 high risk days since 2020.
Snow Depth
As of AM Saturday, April 1st, the MSP Airport was back up to 8" of snow on the ground. Much of Minnesota and into northern Wisconsin has a pretty significant snowpack. Nearly 2ft to 3ft of snow is on the ground near Lake Superior and more than 3ft on the ground near across parts of the U.P. of Michigan.
Snow Pack Water Equivalent
According to the National Weather Service, there is still a lot of water locked in the snow pack. SWE stands for Snow Water Equivalent and as you can see in the figure below, several inches of water is locked in the snow pack across much of the state. Thanks to this recent snowfall, we have even more across the region.
The Illusive 50F For Minneapolis
According to the Twin Cities National Weather Service, we did not hit 50F during the month of March, which is the first time we failed to do so since 2001.
Extended Temperature Outlook
The NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows a string of 30s and 40s as we head into early April. Interestingly, the last time we hit 50F or warmer was back on November 26th (53F). On average, we hit our first 50F on March 4th. Last year, we hit our first 50F on March 15th (51F). There is a chance that we could see our first 50F as we approach the 2nd weekend of April.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Sunday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Sunday, April 2nd will be warmer than it was on Saturday with highs warming into the mid 40s. Skies will be a cloudier than they were yesterday with much stronger southerly winds.
Weather Outlook on Sunday
Temps across the region on Sunday will warm into the 30s and 40s across much of the state, which will be around -5F to -10F below average. The Twin Cities will warm into the mid 40s, which will still be well below average. Gusty south winds around 30mph will be a bit annoying through much of the day.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
The hourly temps through the day Sunday will start in the low 30s in the morning and will warm into the mid 40s by the afternoon. Skies will be cloudier during the first half of the day with a little more sunshine in the afternoon. Again strong southerly winds up to 30mph - 35mph will be a bit annoying for much of the day.
Hourly Feels Like Temps
Feels like temps on Sunday will start around 20F in the morning and will warm into the mid 40s by the afternoon. It certainly won't feel as cold as it did Saturday morning or earlier this week.
Status of Spring
"March 27, 2023 - Spring leaf out continues to spread north, arriving several days to weeks earlier than average (the period of 1991-2020) in much of the Southeast, lower Midwest, and mid-Atlantic. The West is a mix of early and late. Pueblo, CO is 4 days late, Cleveland, OH is 6 days early, and Boston, MA is 9 days early. Spring bloom has also arrived in southern states, days to weeks early in the Southeast, and days to over a week late in the Southwest. Sacramento, CA is 13 days late, Richmond, VA is 14 days early. How typical is this year's spring? Darker colors represent springs that are unusually early or late in the long-term record. Gray indicates an average spring. Parts of the Southeast, lower Midwest, mid-Atlantic, and New York City area are seeing either the earliest spring leaf on record or a spring that only occurs once every 40 years (dark green). Parts of Arizona are seeing a spring that only occurs this late once every 40 years (purple). Spring bloom is latest on record across parts of the Southwest including California and Arizona, and earliest on record in parts of the upper Southeast including Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina."
Weather Outlook
After a very active Friday across the Central US, things will remain quiet in the Central US through the rest of the weekend. Enjoy it because another fairly large storm system looks to develop next week with more strong to severe storms and heavy snow somewhere across the Upper Midwest.
Severe Threat Next Tuesday
Looking ahead to next Tuesday, there is another possible severe threat across the Central US, which could be fairly widespread... Stay tuned.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
Temps will warm into the 30s and 40s over the next few days with the coldest day on Wednesday and Thursday as we warm into the mid/upper 30s in the wake of another potent storm system that will likely bring us another round of rain and snow midweek.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
Weather conditions will be rather quiet Sunday and Monday with temps warming into the mid 40s. Another strong storm system moves into the Central midweek with a chance of showers and thunderstorms along with more snow. The heaviest snow looks to fall farther north and west of the Twin Cities. It'll be chillier Wednesday with some gusty winds, but it should be a little nicer Friday and Saturday. Stay tuned...
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temperatures lingering across the Central and Eastern US. Meanwhile, things will begin to dry out and warm up in the Western US.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows drier/quieter weather settling in from the Western US to the Midwest into the 2nd week of April.
Windblown Rain and Snow by Midweek
By Paul Douglas
The natives are restless. Stoic, good-humored Minnesotans are muttering under their breath. We are agitated, distressed. Like Homer Simpson, I'm walking outside and yelling at clouds.
At least it's free. And the drought is over. And had Friday been 3-5F colder we might be digging out from 1-2 FEET of snow. More than half the moisture with this last storm fell as rain.
Fact: 3rd snowiest winter: 89.7" at MSP and counting. We are only 9" away from the all-time Twin Cities record (98.6" in 1983-84). Isn't that exciting news! Old Man Winter: hold my beer.
A light rain-snow mix is possible early today as temperatures push into the 40s by afternoon. A quiet Monday gives way to an icy mix changing to rain Tuesday (with more T-storms). Another outbreak of tornadoes is expected over Iowa and Illinois, with an ice storm for Duluth. I see mostly rain for the Twin Cities, ending as windswept snow on Wednesday.
I see 50s by mid-April. So, the more snow we melt the milder it can get. Dear snow: please melt now.
Extended Forecast
SUNDAY: AM mix, some PM sun. Winds: SW 15-25. High: 47.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and breezy. Winds: WSW 15-30. Low: 31.
MONDAY: Cloudy and quiet. Winds: W 10-15. High: 43.
TUESDAY: Mix changes to heavy rain, T-storms? Winds: E 15-35. Wake-up: 32. High: 39.
WEDNESDAY: Few inches of snow? Very windy! Winds: SW 25-50. Wake-up: 29. High 34.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy, windy and cold. Winds: W 15-35. Wake-up: 21. High 32.
FRIDAY: Sunny with less wind. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 15. High 42.
SATURDAY: Hints of spring, few rain showers. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 39. High: 49.
This Day in Weather History
April 2nd
2001: Jumbo-sized snowflakes fall in east central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. 2.5 to 2.75 inch flakes measured in Maplewood.
1920: The temperature falls to 8 degrees in Pipestone. The high the day before was 74.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
April 2nd
Average High: 50F (Record: 78F set in 1981)
Average Low: 32F (Record: 9F set in 1877)
Record Rainfall: 1.06" set in 2006
Record Snowfall: 3.4" set in 1920
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
April 2nd
Sunrise: 6:51am
Sunset: 7:41pm
Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 49 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: +3 Minutes & 7 Seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 4 hour & 3 minutes
Moon Phase for April 2nd at Midnight
2.9 Days Until Full "Pink" Moon - 11:35 PM CDT - "The grass pink or wild ground phlox is one of the earliest widespread flowers of the spring. Other names were the Full Sprouting Grass Moon, the Egg Moon, and — among coastal tribes — the Full Fish Moon, when the shad came upstream to spawn. This is also the first full moon of spring — the so-called Paschal Moon. Ecclesiastical rules mandate that the first Sunday after this moon is Easter, and so it will be on the 9th."
National High Temps on Sunday
Temperatures on Saturday will be cooler than average in the Northeast in the wake of the large storm system that brough widespread severe storms and heavy snow to the Central on Friday. Cooler than average temps will be in place across the Western US again as another storm system develops.
National Weather Outlook Sunday
The weather outlook on Sunday will be much quieter along the East Coast after scattered showers and storms moved through Saturday. There will be more rain and snow in the Western US on Sunday.
National Weather Outlook
The strong area of low pressure that produced strong to severe storms across the Central US on Friday will move out the the Eastern US on Sunday. Another large storm system will develop in the Western US late weekend and early next week. This storm will go on to become our next big storm in the Central US Tuesday/Wednesday with strong to severe storms possible and heavy snow to the north.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier amounts of precipitation across the Southern US and the Gulf Coast States. There will also be some heavier precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and into the Midwest.
Snowfall Potential
According to the ECMWF (European model), heavy snow will be found across much of the high elevations in the Western US and across the northern tier of the nation, possibly across parts of the Midwest! Stay tuned...
Climate Stories
"The world is facing a looming water crisis says UN, and the other environment stories you need to read this week"
"The United Nations used its first conference on water security in almost half a century to push governments to better manage the world's water. "We are draining humanity's lifeblood through vampiric overconsumption and unsustainable use, and evaporating it through global heating," said UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. A quarter of the world's population relies on unsafe drinking water while half lacks basic sanitation, the UN says. Ensuring access to clean drinking water and sanitation is one of the organization's 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)."
"Devastating disasters and flickers of hope: These are the top climate and weather stories of 2022"
"From a small island in Polynesia to the white-sand beaches of Florida, the planet experienced a dizzying number of climate and extreme weather disasters in 2022. Blistering summer heat broke records in drought-stricken China, threatening lives and food production. In the United States, drought and sea level rise clashed at the mouth of the historically low Mississippi River. And in South Africa, climate change made rainfall that triggered deadly floods heavier and twice as likely to occur. Yet against the backdrop of these catastrophic events, this year also sparked some glimmers of hope: Scientists in the US successfully produced a nuclear fusion reaction that generated more energy than it used – a huge step in the decades-long quest to replace fossil fuels with an infinite source of clean energy. And at the United Nations' COP27 climate summit in Egypt, nearly 200 countries agreed to set up a fund to help poor, vulnerable countries cope with climate disasters they had little hand in causing."
"UN climate report shows world is flying blind into the storm"
Another thing to fear about climate change is how much scientists still don't know. global warming is bad and getting worse. But a sprawling assessment of tens of thousands of scientific papers on the state of the planet, released Monday, pointed to another unsettling truth: Scientists still don't have answers to many of the questions that will define how well the world copes with the worst of climate change. In its latest report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) describes a world of long-foreseen impacts arriving now with shocking power. Human suffering — especially among the poor — will increase rapidly in the coming decades. The symbolic limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius will almost certainly be breached.
Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX
But next week will end with comfortable 60s and 70s.