Winds Next 2 Weeks: More Pacific Than Arctic

Storms will be in short supply until further notice, but a weak clipper may slush up a few lawns late Saturday. Sunday should be the better travel day. Winters are trending shorter, but I'm holding out hope for a white Christmas this year. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

November 24, 2021 at 4:38AM
Sunset Monday, November 22nd (@TNelsonWX/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Thanksgiving Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

Here's the weather outlook for Minneapolis on Thanksgiving Day Thursday. Note that temps will be quite chilly through the day with temps only warming into the 20s by midday. With gusty northwesterly winds, feels like temps will only be in the teens, which will be quite chilly.

Thanksgiving Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Thanksgiving Day Weather Outlook

It'll be a cold Thanksgiving Day Thursday across the region with temps running nearly -10F to -15F below average. Breezy northwesterly winds will make it feel more like the teens and single digits for much of the day. Other than being cold, we don't have any major storm systems brewing anywhere in the Upper Midwest, so traveling should be fine and dandy.

Thanksgiving Day Weather Outlook (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Thanksgiving Day (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snow Depth Across The Region

Here's a look at snow depth across the region from earlier in the week, which shows minimal snow cover across the northern third of the state. The greatest snow depth was reported in International Falls, where 3" was on the ground. Meanwhile, folks in the southern two-thirds of the state are snow free.

Snow Depth As of November 22nd (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

No Snow In Denver, Colorado

Interestingly, Denver, Colorado has not yet seen any measurable snow this season, which makes it a record for the latest first measurable snow on record! The old record was November 21, 1934.

No Snow in Denver Colorado (Thornton Weather/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook Ahead

The simulated radar from AM Wednesday to AM Tuesday, which shows continue quiet weather across much of the Upper Midwest. Despite breezy winds at times and a temperature roller coaster, there doesn't appear to be any major weather events over the next several days.

Weather Outlook From AM Wednesday to AM Tuesday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook continues to show very little precipitation potential across the state. With that being said, there doesn't appear to be much snow potential anytime soon.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (WeatherBell & NOAA's WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Drought Update For Minnesota

According to the US Drought Monitor, nearly 3% of the state is still considered to be in an extreme drought (in red across northern Minnesota), which is down from nearly 50% from 3 months ago. There has been a slight improvement in Severe Drought, which is at 27%, down from 88% 3 months ago. Nearly 52% of the state is still under a Moderate Drought, which includes much of the Twin Cities Metro.

MN Drought Update (US Drought Monitor/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st

Here's a look at the precipitation departure from average since January 1st and note that most locations are still several inches below average. The Twin Cities The metro is still nearly -6.00" below average since January 1st, which is the 48th driest January 1st - November 23rd on record.

Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Wednesday Weather Outlook

Wednesday will be a mild and less breezy day with a high temperature approaching the mid 40s. Skies will be cloudier than they were on Tuesday with mostly cloudy skies expected through the day.

Wednesday Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Wednesday shows temps slowly falling through the day. Readings will start in the low/mid 40s early in the day and will fall to the mid 30s by evening. Winds will turn west-northwesterly in the afternoon and will become breezy once again.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook For Wednesday

High temps across the region on Wednesday are fairly widespread with readings nearing 50F to the east and only in the upper 20s north and west. A cool front will push through the region, which will allow cooler air to settle in through much of the day. There will be a few scattered snow showers across the northern part of the state, but there shouldn't be much in terms of snowfall accumulation.

Wednesday Weather Outlook (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook through the weekend ahead shows another mild day on Wednesday with a high temp expected to register nearly +5F to +10F above average for mid/late November. However, we'll be well below average on Thanksgiving Day Thursday with a high temperature only warming into the mid 20s. We should get back to average by the weekend with highs warming back into the mid/upper 30s.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

Remarkably, the extended forecast for Minneapolis doesn't show any major precipitation potential anytime soon. It appears that November will end mostly dry with a continuing temperature roller coaster. Note that the last day of the month is next Tuesday and the MSP Airport has only had 1.2" of snow. The metro typically averages around 7" of snow in the month of November.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, readings will be above average on Wednesday before a bigger cool down Thursday. However, note the gradual warming trend as we approach the weekend and early next week with well above average temperatures returning. According to the GFS, we might start seeing cooler temperatures by the first full week of December.

ECMWF Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
GFS Extended Precipitation Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows well above average temperatures across much of the Southwestern US.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, dry weather will be in place across the Southern US and along the East Coast. Meanwhile, it'll be wet in the Pacific Northwest.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Winds Next 2 Weeks: More Pacific Than Arctic
By Paul Douglas

The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails wrote William Arthur Ward. The only predictable thing is change. Why are so many of us feeling a sense of panic, dread and foreboding? Demographic change. Technological change. Even the weather patterns are changing. My take: what worked in the 1970s probably won't work in the 2030s. The ability to welcome,even embrace change, is a gift.

Average winter temperatures in the metro have warmed 5.7F since 1970. That isn't hard to believe this year. Thanksgiving Day will be chilly, but Pacific-flavored air returns next week, with 2-3 days in the 40s; more than 10F warmer than average.

Storms will be in short supply until further notice, but a weak clipper may slush up a few lawns late Saturday. Sunday should be the better travel day. Winters are trending shorter, but I'm holding out hope for a white Christmas this year.

Sunny and 20s on Thanksgiving Day? Sounds like good eating-weather to me.

Extended Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy, breezy. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 43.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy & breezy. Winds: NW 15. Low: 17.

THURSDAY: Bright sunshine, chilly. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 28.

FRIDAY: Few PM flurries possible. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 19. High: 31.

SATURDAY: Light mix, slushy lawns late? Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 26. High: 36.

SUNDAY: Slow clearing, good travel weather. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 27. High: 33.

MONDAY: Patchy clouds, passing sprinkle. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 29. High: 42.

TUESDAY: Peeks of sun, cooler. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 28. High: 36.

This Day in Weather History

November 24th

1993: The Thanksgiving Day Blizzard of 1993. A slow moving storm system traveled across the Upper Midwest during the Thanksgiving holiday, causing heavy snow across most of Minnesota. Travel became extremely difficult if not impossible over west central Minnesota where over a foot of snow accumulated. A number of car accidents were reported and several community events were canceled. Snowfall in excess of six inches or greater occurred north of a line from Bricelyn (Faribault County) to the Twin Cities metro area.

1983: A snowstorm dumps almost two feet at Babbitt and about 20 inches at Duluth.

1825: A warm spell begins over Ft. Snelling. The temperature rises up to 70 degrees.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

November 24th

Average High: 37F (Record: 60F set in 2017)

Average Low: 22F (Record: -10F set in 1893)

Record Rainfall: 1.06" set in 2001

Record Snowfall: 1.7" set in 1977

Twin Cities Almanac For November 24th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

November 24th

Sunrise: 7:22am

Sunset: 4:36pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 14 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 1 minute & 56 seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 20th): ~6 Hour & 36 Minutes

Moon Phase for November 24th at Midnight

2.2 Days Before Last Quarter Moon

Moon Phase For November 24th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps Wednesday

The weather outlook on Wednesday shows well above average temperatures across the Central US with readings running nearly +5F to +10F above average. Meanwhile, folks along the East Coat will be nearly -5F to -10F below average.

National Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

The weather outlook through midweek shows a storm system moving in from the Pacific Northwest to the Central US. The heaviest precipitation will be found in the Northwest with minimal rain/snow chances along the Front Range and the Southern US.

Weather Outlook Through Thursday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, heavier precipitation will be found in the Pacific Northwest and also in the Southern US. Meanwhile, minimal precipitation will be found across the Upper Midwest through the Holiday Weekend.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Snowfall Potential

Here's the extended snowfall potential, which shows heavier snowfall across Much of Canada and the northern Rockies. There will be some Great Lakes snows, but nothing major appears to be brewing across the Central US.

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Wildfires torched up to a fifth of all giant sequoia trees"

"Lightning-sparked wildfires killed thousands of giant sequoias this year, leading to a staggering two-year death toll that accounts for up to nearly a fifth of Earth's largest trees, officials said Friday. Fires in Sequoia National Park and surrounding Sequoia National Forest tore through more than a third of groves in California and torched an estimated 2,261 to 3,637 sequoias, which are the largest trees by volume. Nearby wildfires last year killed an unprecedented 7,500 to 10,400 giant sequoias that are only native in about 70 groves scattered along the western side of the Sierra Nevada range. Losses now account for 13% to 19% of the 75,000 sequoias greater than 4 feet (1.2 meters) in diameter."

"U.S. weather forecasting is about to get better"

  • The Bipartisan infrastructure bill (BIF) includes large sums for improving the accuracy of weather and climate forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Why it matters: Making wildfire detections and forecasting more accurate, as well as honing weather and climate projections, are increasingly vital tasks as the weather grows more extreme due to human-induced climate change. Driving the news: According to a Nov. 15 memo from NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad, the BIF provides nearly $500 million for NOAA's coastal and inland flood mapping, forecasting and water modeling. It also includes: $50 million for improving wildfire forecasting. $50 million for new instruments and equipment to aid in the detection, observation and modeling of wildfires. $80 million for buying research supercomputing resources for advancing forecast accuracy. Context: In addition to annual appropriations, the infrastructure law is the latest move by lawmakers to provide funding boosts for the nation's top weather and climate agency, whose computing power and weather model accuracy had fallen behind other nations in recent years:

"A Quarter of U.S. Roads Could Be Regularly Flooded in 30 Years"

"The U.S. recently passed a $1 trillion bipartisan spending bill aimed at improving and repairing the country's decaying infrastructure, but a new report on flooding risks resulting from climate change warns even more investment might be needed. Within the next 30 years, sea level rise and more intense downpours could put around 26% of U.S. roads underwater on the regular. Nearly 40,000 critical infrastructure facilities, including airports, fire stations, and hospitals, may be at risk of flooding as well. Those are just a few of the dire findings within a recently released, multiyear analysis conducted last month by nonprofit group First Street Foundation. The report found there are already around 2 million miles (3.2 million kilometers) of U.S. roads at risk today, and another 200,000 miles (320,000 kilometers) will be put in the danger zone in the coming decades."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

about the writer

Todd Nelson

See More