Minnesotans had one of the mildest winters of all time last year, with record warmth and a dearth of snow. But don’t expect a repeat performance.
Will we have a cold and wet ‘whirlwind’ winter? The Farmers’ Almanac thinks so.
The publication says to have your boots and hats ready: “Winter will be a whirlwind this year.”
The Minnesota Star Tribune
August 21, 2024 at 11:00AM
The Farmers’ Almanac says to get ready for a “wet winter whirlwind,” predicting that the 2024-25 season will bring cold air and rapid-fire storms with little downtime in between.
Long-range forecasts from the National Weather Service’s’ Climate Prediction Center are not quite as chilling, but do call for temperatures across Minnesota and the northern tier of states to trend below normal from January through March and with slightly higher amounts of rain or snow, according to the center’s latest outlook issued last week.
What both agree on is that La Niña, which refers to the periodic cooling surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is expected to develop and influence the weather all winter long. But just how much remains to be seen, said Assistant State Climatologist Pete Boulay.
“The trick with La Niña or an El Niño is how strong will they be and that has a lot of bearing on the weather,” he said. “Even in a La Niña, having a cold and wet winter is far from a sure thing. We’ve had some meager snow seasons in there and some big ones, too.”
Farmers’ Almanac has been predicting the weather for more than 200 years using correlations between celestial events and various meteorological conditions to issue its long-range forecasts. This year the Maine-based publication predicts winter “will be wet and cold for most locations.”
The last part of January and early February may be the time to make your getaway to warmer climates if you don’t like winter. The Farmers’ Almanac is “red flagging” Jan. 20-27, when it says that an active storm track could bring copious snow, rain, sleet and ice to the eastern half of the country. Arctic air with the lowest readings of the season will envelop Minnesota and the northern Plains from late January into early February, the publication said.
Predicting the weather months in advance is no easy task. A 2010 study from the University of Illinois found the almanac is accurate 52% of the time. Even the publication admits that “yes, nature throws us a curveball from time to time.”
Take last year, for example, when the almanac predicted a cold and snowy winter in Minnesota; the season was the warmest on record. The metro area saw a record 18 days with temperatures of 50 degrees or higher by the end of February, with an average daily temperature of 29.9 degrees in the three-month period of December through February, the Minnesota Climatology Office said. The metro area picked up only 29.5 inches of snow, with half of that falling in March.
On the other hand, the publication nailed it in 2022-23 when it prepared Minnesotans to “shake, shiver and shovel.” That winter, the metro area saw 90.3 inches of snow for the season, the third most on record. Duluth picked up 140.1 inches, smashing the previous mark by more than 5 inches.
So nothing is a sure bet, said Boulay. And even if the Farmers’ Almanac doesn’t hit it spot on, after last year, even a “normal” winter will be a surprise.
“The Farmers’ Almanac is good entertainment,” Boulay said. “And there is something to be said for being prepared for winter.”
Police said there were no arrests Friday afternoon.
