5 takeaways from the 2020 census data for Minnesota

This week we got our first glimpse at detailed data from the 2020 Census, the once-a-decade headcount that determines Congressional seats, federal funding for various programs and a host of other things.

As expected, Minnesota's population has gotten more diverse this past decade and, for the first time, the number of white, non-Hispanic people declined slightly.

Here are 5 more takeaways from the data:

Nationally, about 57% of the population identified themselves as white and non-Hispanic, down from 63% a decade earlier. This is the first decline in this group's population, although it remains the nation's largest.

About 76% of Minnesota's identified as white non-Hispanic in 2020, down from 83%.

Another way to compare states is with the diversity index, which measures, on a scale of 0 to 100, the likelihood that you will encounter a person of a different race or ethnicity. Minnesota's score increased from 30 to 40, one of the biggest increases in the nation.

About 78% of the state's overall population growth occurred in the seven-county metro, which recorded 3.16 million people. The data also showed increasing density, most likely due to development in Hennepin and Ramsey counties, but the bulk of the growth was in Carver and Scott counties where subdivisions are replacing farm fields.

The census showed the metro's white non-Hispanic population held steady, meaning all of the region's growth came from people of color, either through births or migration. The metro area's population is now about 31% people of color, up from 24% a decade ago.

The seven-county area's growth is forecasted to continue, according to recent regional projections from the Metropolitan Council, and reach 4 million residents by 2050 with a population that's about 44% people of color. That forecast expects the region's white population will start to decline in the 2030s.

These forecasts can change in response to unforeseen events or unexpected growth. In this case, the metro area's nonwhite population is already three points higher than the council's projection for 2020.

People of color are making up a greater share of populations in every county in the state, partly due to births and migration, but also because of a declining white non-Hispanic population.

For example, people of color now make up about 5% of the population in Lincoln County in southwestern Minnesota, up from 2% at the last census. A closer look shows that the county has about 125 more people of color than it did in 2010 and 380 fewer people who identify as white non-Hispanic.

Nobles County, also in southwestern Minnesota, surpassed Ramsey County as the second-most diverse county in the state (behind Mahnomen). Nobles County's share of nonwhite population grew from 33% in 2010 to 46% in this most recent census. Some of that is driven by a 15% decline in the white non-Hispanic population.

There's also a possibility that some of the increasing diversity is a reflection of how people identified themselves on the census form. The Census Bureau changed the wording on the race and ethnicity questions and also changed its process for deciding how to classify people.

In the seven-county metro area, the under-18 population is closing in on becoming "majority minority." About 46% of that group identify as either Hispanic or a race other than white. That's also significantly higher than the adult population, which is at 27% nonwhite.

Young people in the rest of Minnesota are also more likely to be people of color than the adults around them, but the rates are much lower.

Some of Minnesota's largest cities experienced significant growth, from Minneapolis popping up by 12%, to St. Paul's population increasing by 9%. Moorhead grew by 17%, Rochester by 14% and Mankato by 13% over the past decade. St. Cloud and Duluth saw more modest gains.

Even more significant growth was found in various Twin Cities suburbs, such as Lakeville, Blaine, Prior Lake, Savage and Woodbury that each saw more than 20% boosts in population, while the communities of Carver, Dayton and Rogers all had growth rates above 50%.

Some smaller places experienced more aggressive rates, such as Taconite (in Itasca County) that grew about 80% and Ranier (up in Koochiching County, outside International Falls) where the population nearly quadrupled.