Yes, that’s Minnesota United leading MLS in expected goals for and against

Minnesota United is only six games into its season, not even 20% done with its schedule. There is an awfully long way to go in 2025.

But if you look at the numbers going back to last summer, after the Loons acquired the players who have helped transform the team — well, something special is brewing in St. Paul, whether it’s getting much national attention or not.

As Minnesota begins a two-game road trip, starting Sunday at Yankee Stadium against New York City FC, and continuing next weekend in Toronto, it might not be able to hide much longer. A trip to the largest media market in the USA and the largest media market in Canada has a way of putting the spotlight on any team.

Not that the Loons are looking for the extra attention. “We’re quite happy with that,” said manager Eric Ramsay, about his team flying under the radar. “I think that suits us, to an extent.”

If you just look at 2025, it’s too early to judge — even for Ramsay. “It might be pretty interesting to see how we look after probably ten, 12 games,” he said.

Of course, these six games don’t exist in isolation. Even Ramsay has referenced how the beginning of this season feels like the continuation of last fall, when Minnesota was recovering from a summer swoon.

After being eliminated from the Leagues Cup in the group stage, the Loons had almost all of August off. It gave them time to integrate their summer reinforcements — especially striker Kelvin Yeboah, midfielder Joaquín Pereyra, and defender Jefferson Diaz.

The Loons have played 15 regular-season games since then, almost half a season. Over that stretch, they have the third-best record in MLS. They’re tied for the second-stingiest defense and the sixth-most-prolific offense.

But as any educated soccer fan knows, pure results can hide the real story. Over half a season, even a full season, the breaks can all go one team’s way, which means the standings end up painting a much rosier picture than reality

It’s why so many people in soccer are obsessed with expected goals. Those numbers aren’t perfect, but they speak to a deeper truth than just the final score: create good opportunities on offense, prevent good opportunities on defense, and over time the breaks will fall your way.

And the expected numbers … well, since last summer, there’s really only one number you need to know for Minnesota, according to the stats gurus at American Soccer Analysis.

First.

That’s where the Loons rank in expected goals for. And expected goals against. And expected points in the standings.

Even if you just look at times where the score was tied, eliminating moments where either team is protecting a lead or chasing the game, Minnesota is still first in expected goal differential and first in expected points.

Wil Trapp, speaking in classic modest veteran mode, deflected any early season delusions of grandeur. “We as players just feel, game in and game out, are we showing up with the right attitude, with the right belief, and doing the little things? The little things add up, and we’re doing those in training, and we’re doing those in games.”

Ramsay, despite wanting to stay under the radar, did point out that a late collapse against Kansas City and allowing a late equalizer against the Galaxy have done as much as anything to cause the Loons’ anonymity.

After all, if they’d held on for those two wins, they’d be in first place in the league standings.

“I feel like these two games are important for us in the sense that they’re two games against sides from over the way, the other side,” said Ramsay, meaning the Eastern Conference. “I feel like we’ve almost got a bit of a free hit at those two games, and I’m excited to see what we end up with.”

At least according to the numbers, Loons fans have to be getting excited, too.

2 p.m., Sunday at Yankee Stadium

TV; radio: Apple TV+, MLS Season Pass on Apple TV; AM-1500

New York City (2-2-2) blew a 3-1 lead in the final half-hour last Saturday at Atlanta, with the lowlight being a communication error between defender Thiago Martins and goalkeeper Matt Freese. It was a low moment, followed by Martins demonstratively upbraiding Freese in front of everyone — a point of contention for the home team. The Loons (3-1-2) play a compact defensive game, which could be perfect for the field at Yankee Stadium, which is both the shortest and the narrowest in MLS.