A Mid-Winter "Warm Front" This Week

After a chillier than average Monday, it'll be a much warmer week with temps warming into the 30s during the 2nd half of the week. Readings will be nearly +10F above average through the weekend with chances of rain and snow across parts of the Midwest. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

December 26, 2022 at 3:30AM
(@TNelsonWX/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities December Stats

December started on a very warm note, but thanks to much colder readings as of late, readings are running more than -5F below average. Snowfall is running more than +10" above average, which is the 9th snowiest start to any season on record

Twin Cities December Stats (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snow Depth

Thanks to our latest storm system, many places are reporting deep snowpack across the region. The heaviest being found across the Dakotas through the northern half of Minnesota into Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan. Meanwhile, 10" of snow covered the ground in the at the MSP Airport over the weekend, which was the 10th greatest snow depth ever recorded on Christmas Eve in Minneapolis. Duluth is reporting a snow depth of 23", which was the 6th greatest snow depth on record for Christmas Eve.

Snow Depth As of Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Snow Depth as of Christmas Eve (NWS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snow So Far This December

Believe it or not, the Twin Cities has seen more than 19" of snow so far this December, which is nearly 10" above average. Interestingly, this has been the 9th snowiest start to any December on record in the Twin Cities. Incredibly, Duluth has seen more than 43" of snow this December, which is more than 28" above average and the 2nd snowiest start to any December on record.

Snow So Far This December (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Snowfall Departure From Average This December (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall So Far This Season

The Twin Cities has seen nearly 33" of snow so far this season, which is more than 16" above average and good enough for the 7th snowiest start to any season on record. Meanwhile, Duluth has seen more than 61" of snow, nearly 30" above average and good enough for the 3rd snowiest start to any season on record.

Snowfall So Far This Season (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Snowfall Departure So Far This Season (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Getting MUCH Colder

The 850mb temperature trend through the upcoming weekend shows above average temperatures now moving into the eastern two-thirds of the nation. This will be much warmer that it was late last week and over the weekend.

850mb Temp Anomaly Through New Years Day Sunday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows much warmer weather moving in as we approach midweek. There will be a stretch of milder weather that appears to hang around through the early part of January.

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Monday

The Twin Cities on Monday, December 26th will be colder than average once again with temps only warming to around 10F. Winds will be lighter, but feels like temps will likely feel more like the subzero range under mostly sunny skies.

Minneapolis Weather Outlook For Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook on Monday

Temps across the region on Monday will still be running well below average with readings running nearly -10F to nearly -20F below average. There will be a chance of snow mainly early in the day.

Weather Outlook For Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms For Minneapolis

Temps on Monday will start off on a very chilly note with readings around 0F in the morning and around 10F by the afternoon. Skies will generally be sunny with NW winds around 10mph through the day.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Monday (Praedicti/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Hourly Feels Like Temps

Feels like temps through the day Monday will be very cold with readings starting in the teens below zero in the morning and warming to around 0F in the afternoon.

Hourly Feels Like Temperatures For Minneapolis on Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The week ahead will be well below average with temps only warming to around 10F, which will be nearly -15F below average. We get back average on Tuesday with readings back in the mid 20s and then well above average for the 2nd half of the month.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook through the last week of December shows much warmer temperatures than what we had last week. Temps will be nearly 10F above average for the 2nd half of the week with chances of rain and snow developing.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The ECMWF extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows warmer temperatures moving in during the 2nd half of the week. Highs in the low/mid 30s will be possible into the early part January.

ECMWF Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temperatures across the eastern half of the nation as we slide into the early part of January.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place across much of the nation, especially in the Western US

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

A Mid-Winter "Warm Front" This Week
By Paul Douglas

I've never been happier to see a January Thaw shaping up (a few days ahead of schedule). After last week's arctic tantrum we are due for a break, and 30s will feel remarkably good by midweek.

Even though our coldest weather of the winter typically comes the latter half of January, many years temperatures get a mild bump as we head into the new year. This odd but welcome phenomenon is most common east of the Mississippi. Almost as if Old Man Winter is catching his breath. I've never seen a good meteorological explanation, either. Whatever the reason, temperatures should rise above 32F from Wednesday into New Year's Day. Here in The Land of Low Weather Expectations, after an intense subzero spanking, "freezing" qualifies as a warm front.

A little freezing drizzle is possible Thursday, and we'll be watching New Year's Weekend. A cold rain Saturday may end as slushy snow New Year's Eve, with a potential for a little slush.

Pro-tip: 30s will make it easier for you to chip away at some of that stubborn ice.

Extended Forecast

MONDAY: Partial clearing, chilly. Winds: NW 7-12. High: 11.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy and quiet. Feels like -12F. Winds: WSW 5. Low: -1.

TUESDAY: Patchy clouds, not as cold. Winds: S 10-20. High: 26.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy - thawing out. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 25. High: 36.

THURSDAY: A little light rain or freezing rain. Winds: W 7-12. Wake-up: 30. High: 35.

FRIDAY: Drier with some sunshine. Winds: SE 3-8. Wake-up: -19. High:31.

SATURDAY: Potential for a rain-snow mix. Winds: NE 10-20. Wake-up: 27. High: 34.

SUNDAY: Any light snow tapers. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 30. High: 33.

This Day in Weather History

December 26th

1990: Much of central Minnesota sets record low temperatures near 30 degrees below zero, while others had lows in the teens below zero. Cambridge had the coldest temperature with 31 below. Mora was close behind, with a low of 30 below. Other notably cold lows were at St. Cloud, with 29 below, and Melrose and Menomonie, WI with 27 below.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

December 26th

Average High: 26F (Record: 52F set in 2011)

Average Low: 12F (Record: -27F set in 1996)

Record Rainfall: 0.60" set in 1880

Record Snowfall: 5.1" set in 1988

Twin Cities Climate Data For December 26th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

December 21st

Sunrise: 7:49am

Sunset: 4:37pm

Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 47 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: +21 seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 1 minute

Moon Phase for December 26th at Midnight

2.8 Day Before First Quarter Moon

Moon Phase For December 26th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps on Monday

The weather outlook on Monday shows well below average temperatures lingering across the eastern half of the nation with readings nearly -10F to -15F below average. Warmer than average temperatures will be found in the western half of the nation, where readings will be nearly +5F to +10F above average.

National Weather Outlook For Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook Monday

The weather outlook for Monday shows lingering snow across the Ohio Valley and into the Eastern Great Lakes. Meanwhile, areas of rain and snow will be possible in the Western US.

National Weather Map For Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

Areas of snow will move through the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Monday with minor snow accumulations. Meanwhile a much larger storm will develop across the Western half of the nation with widespread rain and mountain snow.

Weather Outlook Through Tuesday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation across the Gulf Coast States with heavier precipitation across the Western half of the nation.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall Potential

According to the ECMWF (European model), heavy snow will be possible over the next several days across the northern tier of the nation. The heaviest snow will be found across the high elevations in the Western US.

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"What on Earth is a polar vortex? And what's global warming got to do with it?"

"It's that time again. An influx of Arctic air is blasting across the U.S., sending temperatures plunging, dropping snow, disrupting Christmas travel plans, and setting social media atwitter about the polar vortex. But what exactly is the polar vortex? Where does the cold air come from? And is global warming making cold snaps like this one more likely? Yale Climate Connections meteorologist Bob Henson has answers. Yale Climate Connections: Could you start by defining the polar vortex? Bob Henson: When you hear the phrase "polar vortex," it's usually referring to the North Pole and we're talking about Northern Hemisphere winter weather. So this is an area of low pressure up in the stratosphere, usually centered near the North Pole. It can slosh around, it can stretch, and it can break into two pieces."

"2022's US climate disasters, from storms and floods to heat waves and droughts"

"The year 2022 will be remembered across the U.S. for its devastating flooding and storms – and also for its extreme heat waves and droughts. By October, the U.S. had already seen 15 disasters causing more than US$1 billion in damage each, well above the average. The year started with widespread severe winter storms from Texas to Maine, affecting tens of million of people and causing significant damages. Then, March set the record for the most reported tornadoes in the month – 233. During a period of five weeks over the summer, five 1,000-year rainfall events occurred in St. Louis, eastern Kentucky, southern Illinois, California's Death Valley and Dallas, causing devastating and sometimes deadly flash floods. Severe flooding in Mississippi knocked out Jackson's troubled water supply for weeks. A historic flood in Montana, brought on by heavy rain and melting snow, forced large areas of Yellowstone National Park to be evacuated."

"THIS COMPANY MAKES 'BIOCHAR' THAT PULLS TOXIC POLLUTION OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE"

"Biochar technology is becoming an increasingly popular tool for slowing our planet's overheating. This charcoal-like substance has the potential to revolutionize how we manage our emissions and remove large amounts of carbon pollution from the atmosphere. What makes biochar technology so interesting is that it can store carbon in the soil for longer periods than other carbon removal tools, and it has a variety of amazing benefits. And now, climate tech startup Carbonfuture has created the first fully documented and verified biochar-based carbon sinks — meaning the technology may soon be used much more widely."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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Todd Nelson

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