A Minnesota Spring Is An Acquired Taste

Rain mixes with wet snow and spills into Thursday. Tomorrow will look and feel like something out of late February. Friday looks like the better day with some sunshine, 40s and less wind. Not exactly springy... but better. I'm all-in on better weather. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

April 6, 2022 at 2:30AM
Sunrise on Tuesday, April 5th (@TNelsonWX/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Windy With Rain, Snow & Chilly Temps

Here's the weather outlook from AM Wednesday to PM Sunday. The same storm system responsible for steady rains across the region on Tuesday will continue to swirl around the Midwest Wednesday and Thursday with more wind, rain, snow and chilly early April temps. We'll finally see some improvement late Friday & Saturday, but could see a few more light rain showers PM Sunday as a weak disturbance slides through the region.

Weather Outlook From AM Wednesday to PM Sunday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, the precipitation outlook through Friday shows decent liquid tallies across the region. Total amounts could range from 0.50" to nearly 1.0" across the region with some of the heaviest across the northern part of the state, where heavier snow will be possible.

Extended Precipitation Outlook Through PM Friday (WeatherBell & NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall Potential Through PM Wednesday

Here's the snowfall potential through 7pm Wednesday. Note the heaviest will be possible in northern part of the state and especially the Arrowhead, where winter weather headlines have been posted. A few spots along the North Shore of MN could see near 10" to 15" of snow through AM Friday.

Snowfall Potential Through 7PM Thursday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

2022 Official Ice Out Dates

Hey - Look at that! Thanks for recent milder weather and areas of rain, a few lakes in the southern part of the state have officially gone ice out! Look for more ice outs over the coming days and weeks. It won't be long now before the land of 10,000 unfrozen lakes returns!

2022 Official Ice Out Dates (MN DNR/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Average Ice Out Dates

We're still several weeks away from ice out across parts of the state, but according to the MN DNR, here's a look at the average ice out dates for lakes across the state. Note that some lakes across the southern part of the state typically see ice out around the end of March. Lake Minnetonka typically doesn't see ice out until mid April. A few lakes in far northern & northeastern MN don't see ice out until late April or early May.

Average Ice Out Dates (MN DNR/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Status of Spring

"April 4, 2022 - Spring leaf out continues to progress across the country. Our spring leaf anomaly compares the arrival of spring leaf out this year to a long-term average of 1991-2020. After a slow start to spring across much of the Southeast, spring is progressing more rapidly, arriving days to weeks early across the southern part of the Midwest, the Southern Appalachians, the mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast. Albany, NY is a week early. In western states, spring leaf out is patchy, arriving a week late in some locations and over a month early in others. Parts of Montana and South Dakota are 2-3 weeks early. Spring bloom has also started to arrive in southern states, days to a week late in Texas and Florida and days to several weeks early in California. Spring bloom is over a week early in parts of Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia."

Spring Leaf Index (NPN/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Wednesday Weather Outlook

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Wednesday shows lingering rain showers throughout much of the day with breezy winds and chilly temps for early April standards.

Weather Outlook For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Wednesday shows temperature readings starting in the mid/upper 30s in the morning and will warm into the low/mid 40s through the afternoon. Rain showers will be possible much of the day, but could be steadier during the 2nd half of the day. WNW winds will also be quite strong with gusts approaching 30mph in the afternoon.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook on Wednesday

Temps around the region on Wednesday will be nearly -5F to -10F below average as the storm system swirls through the region. Scattered rain and snow showers will be possible for many as well with the best chance of snow accumulations to the north.

Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis through the rest of the week and into the weekend shows temps running well below average through Friday. However, we'll see reading warm into the 50s again by the weekend, which will be closer to average.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows active weather in place through Thursday with areas of rain and snow likely. It'll be windy through Friday, but weather conditions will improve into the weekend with drier skies and warmer temps. We can't rule out a late day isolated shower Sunday, but rain and snow chances return again into early next week.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, temps will warm into the 40s and 50s over the next several days.. By mid month, we could warm into the 60s possibly near 70F.

ECMWF Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
GFS Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps lingering across parts of the eastern half of the nation. However, the western half of the nation will be cooler than average and especially through the Intermountain West.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8-14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather will be in place along and east of the Mississippi River Valley. Drier weather returns to the Southern & Southwestern US.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

A Minnesota Spring Is An Acquired Taste
By Paul Douglas

"These are the times that try men's souls" wrote Thomas Paine on December 23, 1776. He was frustrated with England and King George putting a thumb on the 13 colonies.

Or was Paine pontificating about fickle Minnesota springs? Not sure. Our winter occupation is winding down. Where are the 50s, lonely daffodil sights, breathless ice-out reports? I demand answers.

I too am disgusted by our stunted spring. I'd go on strike to protest these working conditions if I thought it would help. We like warm fronts too. We are only reluctant messengers.

Silver linings: over an inch of rain may put more water into area lakes, and help with soil moisture for farmers. Rain mixes with wet snow and spills into Thursday. Tomorrow will look and feel like something out of late February.

The Minnesota Twins has their own staff of on-site meteorologists. They don't need my advice. That said, Friday looks like the better day with some sunshine, 40s and less wind. Not exactly springy... but better. I'm all-in on better weather.

Extended Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Rain/snow mix. Winds: W 15-30. High: 39.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Breezy. Rain & snow likely. Winds: WNW 20-35. Low: 33.

THURSDAY: Windy with sprinkles/flurries. Foul. Winds: NW 15-30. High: 37.

FRIDAY: Slow clearing, better. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 30. High: 45.

SATURDAY: Sunny and spectacular. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 25. High: 50.

SUNDAY: Clouds increase, seasonable. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 37. High: 55.

MONDAY: Unsettled with rain showers. Winds: SW 7-12. Wake-up: 40. High: 56.

TUESDAY: Showers and T-storms likely. Winds: E 10-15. Wake-up: 44. High: 57.

This Day in Weather History

April 6th

1991: The second of three consecutive record highs, all above 80 degrees, is set at MSP airport (86 on 4/6/1991).

1964: A snowstorm hits Minnesota with 9 inches at Fosston and 8.7 at Park Rapids.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

April 6th

Average High: 53F (Record: 86F set in 1991)

Average Low: 33F (Record: 10F set in 1979)

Record Rainfall: 2.58" set in 2006

Record Snowfall: 6.0" set in 1928

Twin Cities Almanac For March 6th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

April 6th

Sunrise: 6:43am

Sunset: 7:46pm

Hours of Daylight: ~13 hours & 3 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 3 minute & 5 seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 4 Hour & 23 Minutes

Moon Phase for April 6th at Midnight

2.0 Days Before First Quarter Moon

Moon Phase for April 6th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps Wednesday

The weather outlook on Wednesday shows well above average temperatures in place across the Southern and Southwestern US. Note that highs will warm into the 90s across parts of California, where record highs will be possible through the end of the week. Strong to severe storms will continue to rumble across the Eastern US with areas of heavy rainfall. Meanwhile, folks in the Midwest and Plains will be below average on the backside of the large and stationary low pressure system that will keep winds quite strong across the Midwest and Plains.

National Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

Weather conditions through midweek, shows active weather in place across the eastern half of the nation. Strong to severe storms will be possible in the Eastern US with heavy rainfall, but areas of rain and snow will be possible in the Midwest & Plains with very strong winds.

Weather Outlook Through Thursday (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, in the eastern half of the nation with some of the heaviest found in the Great Lakes and Eastern US. There will also be some decent precipitation in the Western US.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Snowfall Outlook

Here's the ECMWF extended snowfall outlook through next week. Areas of heavy snow will be possible across the northern tier of the nation, especially along the International Border and in the High Plains and Rockies. Stay tuned...

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Increased smoke pollution on the horizon for Pacific Northwest"

"In the western United States, summer 2018 was a bad time for wildfires. In all, according to the government of California, 7,948 separate fires saw 1,975,086 acres burnt to a crisp, 24,226 structures destroyed or damaged, and 100 confirmed deaths. In the following summers, things didn't improve. New research from a team assembled by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and various universities suggests that, if climate mitigation efforts don't go far enough, summer wildfires will only get worse. In a worst-case scenario, the research said that the problems caused by fires in the Pacific Northwest could result in a tripling of air pollution."

"What causes spring floods?"

"Spring is flood season for much of the U.S. From the Pacific Northwest to New England, melting snow combines with spring rains to raise water levels in rivers, lakes, and streams. Sometimes, a perfect storm of factors creates a major flood. Everything from soil to snowpack to overnight temperature plays a role in how significant a spring flood may be. Because so many different elements are involved, predicting flood risk in a given year can be difficult. As climate change influences many of those variables, prediction may get even more difficult. "If you are missing a certain ingredient, you go from just having some nuisance flooding to maybe a catastrophe. And so that makes it really challenging to know in the future where the risks lie." said Melissa Widhalm, the associate director at the Midwestern Regional Climate Center."

"60 Years after Silent Spring Warned Us, Birds—and Humanity—Are Still in Trouble"

"Rachel Carson's classic best seller about ecological threats, Silent Spring, started a wave of American environmentalism. It played a direct role in the 1972 decision by the newly formed U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to ban use of the pesticide DDT. Ernest Gruening, one of the first two U.S. senators from Alaska, said Carson's writings had "altered the course of history." It will be 60 years ago this June that the public was introduced to Carson's arguments, as her book chapters were serialized in the New Yorker magazine. The coming anniversary makes this a good time to consider whether the book achieved one of her major goals: protecting wildlife and, in particular, birds. Carson took a complex technical subject—the damaging effects of persistent pesticides—and expressed it in one simple, poetic image: a spring in which no birds sang. She asked us to imagine what it would be like to awaken in the morning to a world without these songs. She wrote with grace, and she made us feel the loss. But how well have we acted on Carson's warnings?"

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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Todd Nelson

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