A Welcome January Thaw Is Imminent

And now comes the January Thaw. Expect 20s today and 30s from Wednesday into the first few days of 2023. Roads will become slushy and wet by late week but no widespread meltdown is imminent. A little rain/snow mix is possible Thursday, again New Year's Eve, but amounts should be in the nuisance range. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

December 27, 2022 at 3:30AM
Sundogs (NWS Chicago/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities December Stats

December started on a very warm note, but thanks to much colder readings as of late, readings are running nearly -6F below average. Snowfall is +10" above average, which is the 11th snowiest start to any season on record

Twin Cities Climate Data (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snow Depth

Thanks to our latest storm system, many places are reporting deep snowpack across the region. The heaviest being found across the Dakotas through the northern half of Minnesota into Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan. Meanwhile, 10" of snow covered the ground in the at the MSP Airport over the weekend, which was the 10th greatest snow depth ever recorded on Christmas Eve in Minneapolis. Duluth is reporting a snow depth of 23", which was the 6th greatest snow depth on record for Christmas Eve.

Snow Depth As of December 25th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snow So Far This December

Believe it or not, the Twin Cities has seen more than 19" of snow so far this December, which is nearly 10" above average. Interestingly, this has been the 9th snowiest start to any December on record in the Twin Cities. Incredibly, Duluth has seen more than 43" of snow this December, which is more than 28" above average and the 2nd snowiest start to any December on record.

Snowfall So Far This December (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Snowfall Departure From Average This December (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall So Far This Season

The Twin Cities has seen nearly 33" of snow so far this season, which is more than 16" above average and good enough for the 7th snowiest start to any season on record. Meanwhile, Duluth has seen more than 61" of snow, nearly 30" above average and good enough for the 3rd snowiest start to any season on record.

Seasonal Snowfall Since July 1st (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Seasonal Snowfall Departure From Average (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Warmer Week Ahead

The 850mb temperature trend through the upcoming weekend shows above average temperatures now moving into the eastern two-thirds of the nation. This will be much warmer that it was late last week and over the weekend.

850mb Temp Anomaly Through New Years Day (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows much warmer weather moving in as we approach midweek. There will be a stretch of milder weather that appears to hang around through the early part of January.

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday

The Twin Cities on Tuesday, December 27th will be warmer than it has been over the last several days. Highs will warm into the mid 20s, which will close to average for the end of January.

Minneapolis Weather Outlook For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook on Tuesday

Temps across the region on Tuesday will be closer to if not even slightly above average for this time of the year. Temps in the Western part of the state and in the Dakotas will be nearly +10F above average.

Weather Outlook For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms For Minneapolis

Temps on Tuesday will be a little chilly in the morning with readings in the single digits, but we'll warm to the mid 20s, which will be closer to average for this time of the year. Southwesterly winds will be a bit breezy with gusts approaching 25mph at times.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Hourly Feels Like Temps

Feels like temps through the day Tuesday will be chilly in the morning readings in the sub-zero range. However, it'll feel more like the mid teens.

Hourly Feels Like Temps For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The week ahead will be much warmer than it was all of last week. Readings will be nearly +5F to +10F above average through the 2nd half of the week.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook through the last week of December shows much warmer temperatures than what we had last week. Temps will be nearly 10F above average for the 2nd half of the week with chances of rain and snow developing.

7 Day Weather Outlook (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The ECMWF extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows warmer temperatures moving in during the 2nd half of the week. Highs in the low/mid 30s will be possible into the early part January.

ECMWF Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temperatures across the eastern half of the nation as we slide into the early part of January.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place across much of the nation, especially in the Western US

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

A Welcome January Thaw Is Imminent
By Paul Douglas

"What good is the warmth of summer without the cold of winter to give it sweetness" wrote prolific author John Steinbeck. Winter is a chance to slow down, get stuff done indoors, do more reading, thinking, daydreaming. Napping too. For now I don't miss the bugs, red blobs on Doppler and sweaty humidity levels. There is less weeding and other yardwork in December. Pretty sure I'll feel different by April, but for now I'm OK being entombed in a sea of white.

And now comes the January Thaw. Expect 20s today and 30s from Wednesday into the first few days of 2023. Roads will become slushy and wet by late week but no widespread meltdown is imminent. A little rain/snow mix is possible Thursday, again New Year's Eve, but amounts should be in the nuisance range. A more significant Colorado storm may push heavier snow into Minnesota next Monday and Tuesday but it's wildly premature for details. One thing is fairly certain: no more polar punches for the foreseeable future (1-2 weeks). We've EARNED this warm front.

Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Winds: S 10-15. High: 28.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy and warming temps. Winds: S 5-10. Low: 23 to 28 by 5am.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy, breezy and milder. Winds: S 10-20. High: 36.

THURSDAY: Light rain changing to wet snow. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 31. High: 34.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny and cooler. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 19. High:31.

SATURDAY: Clouds, flurries or drizzle? Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 27. High: 34.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy and quiet. Winds: NW 7-12 Wake-up: 25. High: 32.

MONDAY: Snow developing. Winds: E 10-20. Wake-up: 27. High: 31.

This Day in Weather History

December 27th

1982: A snowstorm starts across the state, and ultimately dumps 16 inches in the Twin Cities by the time it ends on the 28th.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

December 27th

Average High: 26F (Record: 46F set in 1959)

Average Low: 12F (Record: -24F set in 1872 & 1886)

Record Rainfall: 0.95" set in 2018

Record Snowfall: 6.0" set in 1971

Twin Cities Almanac For December 27th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

December 27th

Sunrise: 7:49am

Sunset: 4:38pm

Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 48 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: +25 seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 2 minutes

Moon Phase for December 27th at Midnight

1.8 Day Before First Quarter Moon

Moon Phase For December 27th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps on Tuesday

The weather outlook on Tuesday shows well below average temperatures lingering across the eastern half of the nation with readings nearly -10F to -15F below average. Warmer than average temperatures will be found in the western half of the nation, where readings will be nearly +5F to +15F above average.

National Weather Outlook For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook Tuesday

The weather outlook for Tuesday shows a wintry mix across the international border. However, there will be widespread rain/snow showers across the Western US.

National Weather Map For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

Rain and snow showers will be found in the Western US with heavy mountain snow. This system will help to warm temperatures in the eastern half of the nation through the week ahead.

Weather Outlook Through Wednesday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation across the Gulf Coast States with heavier precipitation across the Western half of the nation.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall Potential

According to the ECMWF (European model), heavy snow will be possible over the next several days across the northern tier of the nation. The heaviest snow will be found across the high elevations in the Western US.

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Here are all the positive environmental stories from 2022 so far"

"Eco-anxiety, climate doom, environmental existential dread - as green journalists, we see these terms used a lot - and often feel them ourselves. There's a lot to be worried about when it comes to the climate and nature crises, but when a sense of hopelessness becomes the overarching emotion, apathy begins to creep in too. Last year three environmental educators, all part of EcoTok, penned this excellent piece for us about dealing with eco-anxiety and the need to remain hopeful - or "stubbornly optimistic", as Christiana Figueres puts it. The media has a huge part to play in combatting climate doom. It's our job to be truthful and accurate in our reporting, not trying to downplay the severity of the situation or greenwash reality. But it's also our job to show that there is hope!"

"Perfectly Preserved Insects and Plants Point to Warm Greenland Future"

"A mile-long ice sample extracted by the U.S. military while it was studying whether to arm Greenland with nuclear missiles during the cold war is yielding insights into the Greenland ice sheet's future in a warming world. Sixty years ago, at the height of the Cold War, U.S. military scientists achieved a major feat. They extracted a mile-long slender cylinder of ancient ice from the heart of the Greenland ice sheet—the first ice core ever to be drilled from the surface straight down to the bedrock. For decades, much of the sample lay half-forgotten in storage. But today, it's helping scientists reconstruct the Earth's climate history—and potentially peer into its future."

"'Bomb Cyclone' and Other Weird Weather Words for Our Climate Change Era"

"The weather—our universal go-to for easy small talk—seems to be getting weirder. On the one hand, climate change is certainly to blame. On the other, our heightened awareness of the state of our planet, along with better technology to track extreme weather, is also making us pay closer attention to what's happening outside our window. Meanwhile, new ways of talking that better reflect our anthropogenic epoch are catching on. "Every weather event that occurs now is playing out in a different background state," says Jeff Masters, meteorologist for Yale Climate Connections and co-founder of Weather Underground. "We're now in a totally new climate. The climate of the 21st century has a lot more heat energy in it."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

about the writer

Todd Nelson

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