Sundogs (NWS Chicago/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
A Welcome January Thaw Is Imminent
And now comes the January Thaw. Expect 20s today and 30s from Wednesday into the first few days of 2023. Roads will become slushy and wet by late week but no widespread meltdown is imminent. A little rain/snow mix is possible Thursday, again New Year's Eve, but amounts should be in the nuisance range. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
December 27, 2022 at 3:30AM
Twin Cities December Stats
December started on a very warm note, but thanks to much colder readings as of late, readings are running nearly -6F below average. Snowfall is +10" above average, which is the 11th snowiest start to any season on record
Snow Depth
Thanks to our latest storm system, many places are reporting deep snowpack across the region. The heaviest being found across the Dakotas through the northern half of Minnesota into Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan. Meanwhile, 10" of snow covered the ground in the at the MSP Airport over the weekend, which was the 10th greatest snow depth ever recorded on Christmas Eve in Minneapolis. Duluth is reporting a snow depth of 23", which was the 6th greatest snow depth on record for Christmas Eve.
Snow So Far This December
Believe it or not, the Twin Cities has seen more than 19" of snow so far this December, which is nearly 10" above average. Interestingly, this has been the 9th snowiest start to any December on record in the Twin Cities. Incredibly, Duluth has seen more than 43" of snow this December, which is more than 28" above average and the 2nd snowiest start to any December on record.
Snowfall So Far This Season
The Twin Cities has seen nearly 33" of snow so far this season, which is more than 16" above average and good enough for the 7th snowiest start to any season on record. Meanwhile, Duluth has seen more than 61" of snow, nearly 30" above average and good enough for the 3rd snowiest start to any season on record.
Warmer Week Ahead
The 850mb temperature trend through the upcoming weekend shows above average temperatures now moving into the eastern two-thirds of the nation. This will be much warmer that it was late last week and over the weekend.
Extended Temperature Outlook
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows much warmer weather moving in as we approach midweek. There will be a stretch of milder weather that appears to hang around through the early part of January.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday
The Twin Cities on Tuesday, December 27th will be warmer than it has been over the last several days. Highs will warm into the mid 20s, which will close to average for the end of January.
Weather Outlook on Tuesday
Temps across the region on Tuesday will be closer to if not even slightly above average for this time of the year. Temps in the Western part of the state and in the Dakotas will be nearly +10F above average.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temps on Tuesday will be a little chilly in the morning with readings in the single digits, but we'll warm to the mid 20s, which will be closer to average for this time of the year. Southwesterly winds will be a bit breezy with gusts approaching 25mph at times.
Hourly Feels Like Temps
Feels like temps through the day Tuesday will be chilly in the morning readings in the sub-zero range. However, it'll feel more like the mid teens.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The week ahead will be much warmer than it was all of last week. Readings will be nearly +5F to +10F above average through the 2nd half of the week.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook through the last week of December shows much warmer temperatures than what we had last week. Temps will be nearly 10F above average for the 2nd half of the week with chances of rain and snow developing.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The ECMWF extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows warmer temperatures moving in during the 2nd half of the week. Highs in the low/mid 30s will be possible into the early part January.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temperatures across the eastern half of the nation as we slide into the early part of January.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place across much of the nation, especially in the Western US
A Welcome January Thaw Is Imminent
By Paul Douglas
"What good is the warmth of summer without the cold of winter to give it sweetness" wrote prolific author John Steinbeck. Winter is a chance to slow down, get stuff done indoors, do more reading, thinking, daydreaming. Napping too. For now I don't miss the bugs, red blobs on Doppler and sweaty humidity levels. There is less weeding and other yardwork in December. Pretty sure I'll feel different by April, but for now I'm OK being entombed in a sea of white.
And now comes the January Thaw. Expect 20s today and 30s from Wednesday into the first few days of 2023. Roads will become slushy and wet by late week but no widespread meltdown is imminent. A little rain/snow mix is possible Thursday, again New Year's Eve, but amounts should be in the nuisance range. A more significant Colorado storm may push heavier snow into Minnesota next Monday and Tuesday but it's wildly premature for details. One thing is fairly certain: no more polar punches for the foreseeable future (1-2 weeks). We've EARNED this warm front.
Extended Forecast
TUESDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Winds: S 10-15. High: 28.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy and warming temps. Winds: S 5-10. Low: 23 to 28 by 5am.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy, breezy and milder. Winds: S 10-20. High: 36.
THURSDAY: Light rain changing to wet snow. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 31. High: 34.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny and cooler. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 19. High:31.
SATURDAY: Clouds, flurries or drizzle? Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 27. High: 34.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy and quiet. Winds: NW 7-12 Wake-up: 25. High: 32.
MONDAY: Snow developing. Winds: E 10-20. Wake-up: 27. High: 31.
This Day in Weather History
December 27th
1982: A snowstorm starts across the state, and ultimately dumps 16 inches in the Twin Cities by the time it ends on the 28th.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
December 27th
Average High: 26F (Record: 46F set in 1959)
Average Low: 12F (Record: -24F set in 1872 & 1886)
Record Rainfall: 0.95" set in 2018
Record Snowfall: 6.0" set in 1971
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
December 27th
Sunrise: 7:49am
Sunset: 4:38pm
Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 48 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: +25 seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 2 minutes
Moon Phase for December 27th at Midnight
1.8 Day Before First Quarter Moon
National High Temps on Tuesday
The weather outlook on Tuesday shows well below average temperatures lingering across the eastern half of the nation with readings nearly -10F to -15F below average. Warmer than average temperatures will be found in the western half of the nation, where readings will be nearly +5F to +15F above average.
National Weather Outlook Tuesday
The weather outlook for Tuesday shows a wintry mix across the international border. However, there will be widespread rain/snow showers across the Western US.
National Weather Outlook
Rain and snow showers will be found in the Western US with heavy mountain snow. This system will help to warm temperatures in the eastern half of the nation through the week ahead.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation across the Gulf Coast States with heavier precipitation across the Western half of the nation.
Snowfall Potential
According to the ECMWF (European model), heavy snow will be possible over the next several days across the northern tier of the nation. The heaviest snow will be found across the high elevations in the Western US.
Climate Stories
"Here are all the positive environmental stories from 2022 so far"
"Eco-anxiety, climate doom, environmental existential dread - as green journalists, we see these terms used a lot - and often feel them ourselves. There's a lot to be worried about when it comes to the climate and nature crises, but when a sense of hopelessness becomes the overarching emotion, apathy begins to creep in too. Last year three environmental educators, all part of EcoTok, penned this excellent piece for us about dealing with eco-anxiety and the need to remain hopeful - or "stubbornly optimistic", as Christiana Figueres puts it. The media has a huge part to play in combatting climate doom. It's our job to be truthful and accurate in our reporting, not trying to downplay the severity of the situation or greenwash reality. But it's also our job to show that there is hope!"
"Perfectly Preserved Insects and Plants Point to Warm Greenland Future"
"A mile-long ice sample extracted by the U.S. military while it was studying whether to arm Greenland with nuclear missiles during the cold war is yielding insights into the Greenland ice sheet's future in a warming world. Sixty years ago, at the height of the Cold War, U.S. military scientists achieved a major feat. They extracted a mile-long slender cylinder of ancient ice from the heart of the Greenland ice sheet—the first ice core ever to be drilled from the surface straight down to the bedrock. For decades, much of the sample lay half-forgotten in storage. But today, it's helping scientists reconstruct the Earth's climate history—and potentially peer into its future."
"'Bomb Cyclone' and Other Weird Weather Words for Our Climate Change Era"
"The weather—our universal go-to for easy small talk—seems to be getting weirder. On the one hand, climate change is certainly to blame. On the other, our heightened awareness of the state of our planet, along with better technology to track extreme weather, is also making us pay closer attention to what's happening outside our window. Meanwhile, new ways of talking that better reflect our anthropogenic epoch are catching on. "Every weather event that occurs now is playing out in a different background state," says Jeff Masters, meteorologist for Yale Climate Connections and co-founder of Weather Underground. "We're now in a totally new climate. The climate of the 21st century has a lot more heat energy in it."
Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX
But next week will end with comfortable 60s and 70s.