Additional Rain Into The Fishing Opener/Mother's Day Weekend

While we didn't see any record highs Wednesday across the state, Duluth did see its first 70F degree day of the year - matching the date of their first 70F in 2022. Over the past 30 years (1993-2022), the average first 70F degree day for Duluth is April 24th.

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Forecast loop from 7 PM Thursday to 7 AM Saturday.

We will continue to watch more rain chances move across the region as we head through the end of the week. They'll come in a few waves:

While I can't rule out a strong storm producing gusty winds or some hail across the region Thursday Night, the main threat of severe weather will be off to our west across the Dakotas.

On Friday, a few of the storms across southern Minnesota could be on the stronger side - especially in far southwestern Minnesota, where a Slight Risk (threat level 2 of 5) is in place. While hail and wind will be the primary threats, an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

The severe weather threat for Saturday should primarily stay south of the Minnesota border.

From Thursday through the weekend (with rain continuing through Sunday morning - more on that below), the heaviest additional precipitation will continue to be across southern Minnesota where at least another 1-2"+ will be possible from Willmar to the south metro and southward.

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As shown in the model loop above, the showers and storms that are expected to impact the Twin Cities Thursday Night will have moved out by Friday morning, but already by the mid-morning hours a batch of mostly showers should move northward, lasting into the afternoon hours, with redeveloping storms possible in the afternoon as well. Morning temperatures will start off in the low 60s with highs in the mid-70s.

So we'll watch those shower and storm chances across much of the state Friday. The driest weather may be along the Canadian border. Highs will be in the 60s along the North Shore, but climb into the 70s across the rest of the state.

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Forecast loop from 7 AM Saturday to 7 PM Saturday.

As we look ahead toward the Minnesota Fishing Opener on Saturday, we will be watching the chance of some showers and thunderstorms across much of the state - especially in areas of central and southern Minnesota. The farther north you go, the better the chances that you may remain dry.

Morning temperatures will range from the 40s across portions of northeastern Minnesota to the 60s across portions of southern Minnesota.

As we look at highs for Saturday, they will remain stuck in the 50s near and along the North Shore, with low to mid-70s expected in southern Minnesota.

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Rain chances will continue across southern Minnesota during the morning hours on Sunday, mainly along and south of I-94. By late morning/midday, most of those showers should be confined to southeastern Minnesota, pushing out during the early afternoon hours. As that rain pushes out, the skies will quickly clear and we should see sunny skies in the afternoon hours here in the metro.

The warmest temperatures for Mother's Day will be up in northern Minnesota - where sunny skies are expected most of the day - with highs in the 70s. 60s are expected across southern Minnesota, and 50s will be possible along the North Shore due to a breeze off of Lake Superior.

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A Wet and Windy Fishing Opener Shaping Up
By Paul Douglas

I'm pretty good at fishing. It's the "catching" that's a problem. You may wind up wetter than the walleye by the end of the day Saturday, as a stalled warm front sparks swarms of heavy showers and thunderstorms.

The strongest storms are likely south and west of metro lakes, but we can't rule out lightning over roughly the southern third of Minnesota.

Remember that lightning is lazy. It wants the easiest way from the cloud to the ground. You don't want to be the tallest object in the area, but on a boat you're a sitting duck. Check radar on your phone - if you see red blobs or lightning strikes nearby I would head to shore and the relative safety of your vehicle.

The I-90 corridor and farms in far southern Minnesota may see 2-3" of rain by Sunday morning, with over an inch in the metro. Winds gust to 30 - expect a nauseating "walleye chop". Sunday puddles give way to slow clearing and a fresh breeze for your favorite mom. Next week: 70s, even a few low 80s? Hey, I'm just relieved it's not snowing.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

FRIDAY: Some sun, few T-storms. Wake up 62. High 76. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind E 10-15 mph.

SATURDAY: Showers and T-storms, some heavy. Wake up 63. High 71. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind E 15-30 mph.

SUNDAY: Wet start, then slow clearing. Wake up 53. High 68. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind NE 15-25 mph.

MONDAY: Sunny skies, winds ease. Wake up 50. High 74. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.

TUESDAY: Sunny and breezy. Wake up 57. High 79. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind N 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Warm sunshine. Wake up 55. High 80. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.

THURSDAY: Showers, few T-storms. Wake up 58. High 81. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind W 10-20 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
May 12th

*Length Of Day: 14 hours, 43 minutes, and 56 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 24 seconds

*When do we see 15 Hours of Daylight?: May 20th (15 hours, 1 minute, 45 seconds)
*Earliest Sunrises Of The Year: June 13th-17th (5:25 AM)
*Earliest Sunsets Of The Year: June 21st-July 2nd (9:03 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
May 12th

1922: A strong cold front moves through western Minnesota, replacing shorts with sweaters at Morris. The temperature dropped from 91 to 26 on this date.

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On Friday, scattered areas of showers and storms are expected from the Rockies eastward, though not everyone will see rain. A few snow showers will also mix in across the Rockies. Quiet weather is expected across the western United States.

Very heavy rain that could cause flooding is expected across the Plains and into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley through the first half of the weekend. In some areas, at least 3-5" of rain will fall. Several inches of snow will be possible in the Colorado Rockies.

The greatest threat of flooding rains on Friday will be across south-central Texas, where swaths of 6"+ will be possible with 2-3" per hour rainfall rates.

Meanwhile, severe weather will be possible across the Plains on Friday as well. The greatest tornado threat will be across the northern Slight Risk area, including Kansas City and Omaha. Large to very large hail will also be possible across the severe risk area, and we'll continue to watch the strong wind threat as well.

For Mother's Day Sunday, we'll be watching showers and storms west to east from the Four Corners to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, and north to south from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains. Record heat is expected in the Pacific Northwest and in parts of the Southeast, including Atlanta.

Excessive heat is expected as we head into Mother's Day weekend in the Pacific Northwest, with numerous record highs expected.

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Watch Out: Tornado Alley Is Migrating Eastward

More from Scientific American: "Although tornadoes touch down in many places across the eastern half of the country, from the 1950s through the 1990s they struck most often in Tornado Alley, an oval area centered on northeastern Texas and south-central Oklahoma. More recently, that focus has shifted eastward by 400 to 500 miles. In the past decade or so tornadoes have become prevalent in eastern Missouri and Arkansas, western Tennessee and Kentucky, and northern Mississippi and Alabama—a new region of concentrated storms."

Impact of warmer seas on fish stocks leads to rise in pirate attacks

More from The Guardian: "Dwindling fish stocks caused by the climate crisis are leading to an increase in pirate attacks, according to a new study looking at two piracy hotspots over the past two decades. Warmer seas have negatively affected fisheries in east Africa, one of the world's worst areas for piracy; while in the South China Sea, another hotspot for attacks, it has had the opposite effect: fish populations have risen. This phenomenon created a "rare natural experiment" in which to test the links between climate breakdown and piracy risk, according to Gary LaFree, a professor of criminology and criminal justice at the University of Maryland, and one of the co-authors of the paper, published in the American Meteorological Society journal, Weather, Climate, and Society (WCAS)."

Plastic can drift far away from its starting point as it sinks into the sea

More from the American Chemical Society: "Discarded or drifting in the ocean, plastic debris can accumulate on the water's surface, forming floating islands of garbage. Although it's harder to spot, researchers suspect a significant amount also sinks. In a new study in ACS' Environmental Science & Technology, one team used computer modeling to study how far bits of lightweight plastic travel when falling into the Mediterranean Sea. Their results suggest these particles can drift farther underwater than previously thought. From old shopping bags to water bottles, plastic pollution is besieging the oceans. Not only is this debris unsightly, animals can become trapped in it or mistakenly eat it. And if it remains in the water, plastic waste can release organic pollutants. The problem is most visible on the surface, where currents can aggregate this debris into massive, so-called garbage patches. However, plastic waste also collects much deeper. Even material that weighs less than water can sink as algae and other organisms glom onto it, and through other processes. Bits of this light plastic, which typically measure 5 millimeters or less, have turned up at least half a mile below the surface. Researchers don't know much about what happens when plastic sinks, but they generally assume it falls straight down from the surface. However, Alberto Baudena and his colleagues suspected this light plastic might not follow such a direct route."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser