Another Long Stretch of Dry, Sunny Weather

Another stretch of dry and sunny weather is expected over the next several day. Next best chance of rain moves in by the middle part of next week. -Todd Nelson

August 13, 2021 at 4:06AM

Exceptional Drought Now In Minnesota

For the first time in US Drought Monitor history (since 2000), Exceptional Drought has now entered parts of of Minnesota from near International Falls to Upper & Lower Red Lake and near Fargo, ND. This is where precipitation deficits are near -7.00" to -8.50" below average since January 1st

Minnesota Drought Update (US Drought Monitor/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation From Average Since January 1st

Here are the precipitation deficits since January 1st, which show readings that are several inches below average. Some of the biggest deficits are nearly more than 7" to 8" below average, where extreme and exceptional drought conditions are in place.

Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Potential Through Monday

Here's the precipitation potential through Monday, which shows very little rainfall across the state with only a little across the southwestern part of the state Saturday Night into Sunday. We really won't see any appreciative rainfall chances until the 2nd half of next week. Stay tuned.

Precipitation Potential Through Monday (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Perseid meteor shower of 2021, likely the best of the year, is peaking now!"

"The stunning Perseid meteor shower will peak tonight (Aug. 11) in what could well be the most brilliant "shooting star" display of the year. The Perseids are often one of the strongest meteor showers, and this year, the display will be particularly easy to observe, as the moon is just a few days past its new phase, keeping tonight's sky quite dark. Skywatchers began catching early Perseids in late July, and the meteor shower will continue until Aug. 18, but the peak of this meteor shower is well worth catching. Forecasts from Space.com and Sky & Telescope suggest that skywatchers who get themselves someplace dark enough could catch dozens of shooting stars each hour — perhaps one a minute — during the shower's peak, which continues into Thursday morning."

Perseid Meteor Shower (NASA/Bill Ingalls/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Tracking Fred

Here's a look at the IR Satellite Loop of Tropical Depression Fred on Thursday as it drifted NW along the coast coast of Cuba. Areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are expected as Fred drifts northwest on Friday.

Tracking Fred (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Tracking Fred

Here's the forecast track for Fred, which shows the system drifting NW over the next several days. Fred is expected regain Tropical Storm status by Friday. Weather conditions will deteriorate rapidly on Friday night and Saturday morning across southern Florida, where Tropical Storm headlines have been posted.

NHC Forecast Track for Fred (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Heavy Rains on the Way

One of the main threats will be heavy rainfall, where several inches can't be ruled out. Flash flood concerns will be possible in some locations in Florida as we head into the weekend.

Precipitation Forecast Through The Weekend (Preadictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Friday Weather Outlook

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Friday, August 13th will dry and sunny with temps warming to slightly below average levels for mid August.

Friday Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Minneapolis Meteograms

The meteograms for Minneapolis on Friday shows temps warming from near 60F in the morning to near 80F by the afternoon with mostly sunny skies. WNW winds will be a bit breezy at times with gusts approaching 20mph.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Friday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Friday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Regional Weather Outlook for Friday

The weather outlook across the region on Friday shows temps running slightly below average with bright sunshine and comfortable dewpoints.

Weather Outlook on Friday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Friday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook for Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis shows near average temps over the next several days with highs warming into the low/mid 80s. It appears that temps will be a bit warmer as we head into next week, but we should stay mostly dry.

Temp Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps continuing east of the Rockies, including the Midwest. Cooler than average readings will show up across the High Plains and into Alaska.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Another Long Stretch of Dry, Sunny Weather
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

It's been a strange summer. Despite some recent rains, most days have been hot, dry and sunny. A cloudy day seems rare these days and when it rains, I shush the kids, so I can hear hear the pitter patter on the roof.

One benefit of the dry weather is that construction projects haven't had many weather delays this summer. However, water levels on Minnesota lakes are running significantly lower. Boaters are having a tough time on launches and are dodging submerged boulders that haven't been problems in years past. Hopefully you haven't blown out your prop.

For the first time in the existence of the US Drought Monitor (since 2000), there is now Exceptional Drought in Minnesota. This thin strip stretches from near International Falls through Upper and Lower Red Lake and into Grand Forks. These areas are nearly 5 to 8 inches below average precipitation since January 1st.

The Twin Cities is still 5 inches below average and under a severe drought. Trees are dropping leaves and lawns crunchier than ever. We need more rain!

Extended Forecast

FRIDAY: Comfortable sunshine. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 79.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: NW 5-10. Low: 57.

SATURDAY: Dry, sunny and mild once again. Winds: SSW 5-10. High: 84.

SUNDAY: A few more clouds. Slightly more humid. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 64. High: 85.

MONDAY: Increasing winds. getting sticky again. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 65. High: 85.

TUESDAY: Warm & humid. Spotty PM rumble?. Winds: SSE 10-15. Wake-up: 66. High: 85.

WEDNESDAY: Turning unsettled. PM T-Showers. Winds: SSW 10-15. Wake-up: 68. High: 86.

THURSDAY: Scattered showers & storms possible. Winds: SSW 5-10. Wake-up: 68 High: 84.

This Day in Weather History

August 13th

1964: Minnesota receives a taste of fall, with lows of 26 in Bigfork and 30 in Campbell.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

August 13th

Average High: 80F (Record: 98F set in 1880)

Average Low: 63F (Record: 48F set in 1997)

Record Rainfall: 2.05" set in 2007

(Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

August 13th

Sunrise: 6:13am

Sunset: 8:22pm

Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 09 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minute & 44 seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 20th): ~1 Hour & 28 Minutes

Moon Phase for August 13th at Midnight

1.3 Days Before First Quarter Moon

Moon Phase For August 13th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

What's in the Night Sky?

"It's fun to hunt for a young moon, a thin crescent moon visible in the west shortly after sunset. The new moon was August 8, 2021, at 13:50 UTC. We expect some people to catch the whisker-thin waxing evening crescent and Venus after sunset August 9. If you miss the slender young moon at dusk on August 9, try again on August 10, 11, 12 and 13. To see a young moon, you'll want an unobstructed horizon in the direction of sunset. Find a hill or balcony to stand on, enabling you to peek just a little farther over your horizon. Binoculars come in handy, too, especially around August 9 or 10, when the bright evening twilight will be competing with the ghost of a whisker-thin crescent."

Night Sky on August 9th (Earth Sky/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Dixie Fire in Northern California

The #DixieFire is the 2nd largest fire in California's history burning more than 510,000 acres as of August 12th. The fire is only 30% contained and has burned several structures. The largest wildfires in the state's history was the August Complex from 2020, which burned more than 1 million acres.

Firefighters Protecting a Home in Greenville (Inciweb/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Dixie Fire Footprint (Inciweb/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Top 20 Largest Wildfires in California History (CalFire/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

5 Day Tropical Outlook

According to NOAA's National Hurricane Center, Fred continues to drift NW, while another area of storminess has a high probability of tropical formation over the next 5 days.

5 Day Tropical Outlook (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps Friday

The weather outlook on Friday shows above average temperatures across the East Coast and the Pacific Northwest. Some of the hottest readings will be found in the Pacific Northwest, where excessive heat concerns are in place through Saturday. Some locations under excessive heat concerns could warm to record levels through Saturday as well.

National Weather Outlook For Friday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Friday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

The national weather outlook into the weekend shows unsettled weather moving through the middle part of the country with spotty severe weather and locally heavy rains. Cooler weather will move into the Upper Midwest with sunny skies.

Weather Outlook Through Friday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center areas of heavy rainfall will be possible across parts of the along and east of the Mississippi River and into the Southeast. Some of the heaviest rains will be associated with Fred, which could be a tropical storm when it nears the Florida Coast.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Wave Power Charges Ahead with Static Electricity Generators"

"One key to harvesting the ocean's clean energy—at least a little of it—may lie in static electricity. A team of researchers in Portugal has now successfully used it to run small generators inside a navigational buoy, powering the sensors and lights that the buoy uses to collect data and aid sailors. Though the project's scale is small so far, the researchers say it is an important proof of concept for a technique that could supplement existing attempts to harness the power of waves, as well as other kinds of naturally occurring motion. Oceans are an appealing target for renewable energy generation. Waves alone produce 32,000 terawatt-hours of natural energy per year—for reference, the entire world uses around 23,000 terawatt-hours annually. And there is also the power of currents, tides and thermal energy. But despite decades of research, the motion of the ocean has proved difficult to harness. Wave patterns are unpredictable, seawater corrodes metal generating machinery, and waves' energy is simultaneously dispersed across three dimensions (up-down, forward-backward and left-right)."

"'The Day After Tomorrow' film foretold a real and troubling trend: The Atlantic ocean's circulation system is weakening"

"In the 2004 film "The Day After Tomorrow," a climatologist played by Dennis Quaid warns world leaders about a rapid climate shift. The key factor is an ocean current system called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which moves warm water from the equatorial tropics up to Europe and the north Atlantic. This influx of warmer water contributes to western Europe's mild, temperate climate. In the movie, the AMOC stops completely, causing an ice age to begin almost overnight. While the speed and intensity of that cold snap are hyperbolized in the film, the AMOC is very real, and research suggests a slow down of its circulation is a likely consequence of climate change. In a paper published last week, climate scientist Niklas Boers concluded that the AMOC is approaching a tipping point. If enough fresh water from melting polar ice enters the ocean, the current system will experience an "abrupt weakening," and destabilize, he told Insider."

"The UN Climate Report: All Is Not Well—but All Is Not Lost"

"THE UNITED Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released an alarming new report on the state of the climate: 14,000 pieces of scientific literature synthesized by hundreds of experts. It's a full-throated declaration of what scientists know about how humanity has set the planet on fire: How hot it's gotten and how hot it's going to get, how much polar ice is melting, how droughts and storms are worsening, how dire the path forward looks—unless we take drastic and immediate steps to stop loading the atmosphere with carbon. "We've known for decades that the world is warming, but this report tells us that recent changes in the climate are widespread, rapid, and intensifying—unprecedented in thousands of years," said Ko Barrett, IPCC vice chair and senior adviser for climate at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, at a press conference Sunday announcing the report. "The bottom line is that unless there are immediate, rapid, and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C—or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit—will be beyond reach." That limit is the optimistic goal of the Paris Climate Agreement: to keep global average temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, and to avoid 2 degrees of warming. The new report notes that the temperature has already crept up by 1.1 degrees, and is on track to hit 1.5 sometime in the early- to mid-2030s if things don't change."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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Todd Nelson

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