Another System Brings More Rain Thursday With Snow In Northwestern Minnesota

Multiple rounds of training storms brought heavy rainfall across southern Minnesota into central Wisconsin Thursday. Here in the metro, we saw 1.34" of rain at MSP, topping the record for the day of 1.00" back in 1899. Record rain was also set in Rochester, Eau Claire, and Wausau (which saw 3.89" of rain - their 10th wettest day in recorded history).

These storms Tuesday also brought reports of large hail from southwestern Minnesota into the southern metro. The largest hail report was 2.5" in diameter 3 miles west of Sleepy Eye. We also saw 2.25" hail in Springfield and 2" in Sanborn.

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Another day with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms is expected in the metro as we slide into Thursday, with the greatest probabilities early and then again late/into the overnight hours. No severe weather is expected this time around, however. Temperatures will barely budge from the upper 50s to low 60s throughout the day.

A stark temperature divide will be in place across Minnesota on Thursday with a system passing through the Northern Plains - 30s in northwestern Minnesota to the 60s in southeastern parts of the state. While most of the state will see the potential of showers (with storms in southern Minnesota), some of this will be in the form of either mixed precipitation or snowfall up toward Hallock and Roseau. More on that system - and the potential snowfall expected - below.

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Forecast model from 4 PM today to 7 AM Friday.

A system is moving through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest as we head through the second half of the week. This will bring the likelihood of the first accumulating snow of the season to northwestern Minnesota from late Wednesday into Friday. As typical this time of year, there are still several questions as to how this evolves - including overcoming warmer surface temperatures (especially during the daytime hours) - to figure out how much actually accumulates vs. melts away. However, we could still see several inches of heavy, wet snow accumulate - especially on grassy surfaces and eventually paved surfaces - over the next couple of days. The snow will come in a few waves, with some of the heaviest expected Wednesday Night and again during the second half of Thursday into Thursday Night.

1-4" of snow is expected to accumulate through the second half of the week across northwestern Minnesota - mainly north and west of Red Lake. The highest probability of at least 4" of snow will be in Kittson County (in and around Hallock). However, as mentioned above, totals could be higher (or the higher end of the expected snowfall range could spread farther south and east by a county or two) depending on how quickly we overcome warmer surface conditions.

Meanwhile, another 1"+ of rain can be expected across portions of southern and eastern Minnesota as this system rolls on through during the second half of the week.

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Six-hour precipitation from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM Sunday.

Meanwhile, we are still tracking the potential for mainly some light snow across southern and central Minnesota Saturday into Saturday Night. As with the snow up north, we will have accumulation issues at the start due to it falling during the daytime hours and on top of warmer surfaces. Despite some questions and the fact this is a weaker system, I would not be surprised to see half an inch or so accumulate in some areas late Saturday into Saturday Night - especially on grassy surfaces. Just a sign that winter is right around the corner.

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Well, I hope you enjoyed the extended summer-like weather across the region. After highs in the low 60s Thursday, we likely won't see those values for a while. Highs look to drop into the 40s and even 30s starting Friday and lasting through next week. I can't rule out a few 50s possible late next week - but that's a way out, and things can change by then. Speaking of talking about weather a way out that could change, we may have to watch a few showers for the Minnesota Hunting Opener on November 4th.

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It looks like the kids are going to want a warm costume this year, as temperatures are expected to be around freezing as they make their rounds for candy next Tuesday. With strong westerly winds, it'll feel more like the low 20s. I do think there is at least the potential for a few flurries across the region - but no blizzard this year.

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Image credit: NWS Duluth

Thursday will mark the anniversary of the lowest recorded pressure on record for Minnesota as a strong system moved across the state. Bigfork set that record at 5:13 PM with a sea level pressure of 955.2 millibars. Wisconsin also saw its lowest pressure on record - 961.3 millibars in Superior, WI, at 11:15 am CDT. 65 mph wind gusts were observed at Georgeville (Stearns County), Mehurin Township (Lac Qui Parle County), and at the Blatnik Bridge between Duluth and Wisconsin. Both NWS Duluth and the Minnesota State Climatology Office have more information on this system that occurred 13 years ago.

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Rainy Thursday But Saturday Slush Risk
By Paul Douglas

Uh oh, this weekend may be too cold and slushy to rake leaves. I promise I'll get to it in April. A (much) colder front is on the way, and by Saturday the atmosphere will be cold enough for a period of snow, capable of a slushy coating to 1" on some lawns and fields. 2-3" may accumulate over far southwestern Minnesota.

One factor to consider: ground temperatures are still warm after a mild October, so some of that falling snow will melt on contact. But if you're out and about Saturday, especially early, watch the bridge overpasses and ramps. It may be a little greasy on the highways. Note to self: slush in late October is not that unusual. We've just been spoiled in recent weeks.

Rain falls much of today, tapering on Friday. Next week looks chilly with 30s and another chance of slush in time for Halloween; maybe a light accumulation? Ugh.

It can always be worse: Acapulco, Mexico was just slammed by "Otis" which went from tropical storm to Category 5 (165 mph winds) in 1 day. I've never seen that before.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

THURSDAY: Rain, few T-storms. Wake up 57. High 62. Chance of precipitation 100%. Wind NE 10-15 mph.

FRIDAY: Showers taper, windy and cooler. Wake up 40. High 43. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind NW 15-30 mph.

SATURDAY: Coating to 1" of slush on lawns. Wake up 30. High 33. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.

SUNDAY: Becoming partly sunny. Wake up 29. High 37. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.

MONDAY: Intervals of sun, feels like 20F. Wake up 26. High 34. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-25 mph.

TUESDAY: Light snow, Trick or Treat slush? Wake up 27. High 35. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny, not as harsh. Wake up 22. High 39. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
October 26th

*Length Of Day: 10 hours, 27 minutes, and 10 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 54 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 10 Hours Of Sunlight? November 5th (9 hours, 59 minutes, 11 seconds)
*Latest Sunrise Before We "Fall Back": November 4th (7:55 AM)
*Earliest Sunset Before We "Fall Back": November 4th (5:57 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
October 26th

2010: The lowest pressure on record for Minnesota occurs in the town of Bigfork, with a reading of 28.21 inches of mercury (955.30 mb). Very strong winds were widespread throughout the state, with peak gusts of 65 mph recorded at both Georgeville (Stearns County) and Mehurin Township (Lac Qui Parle County).

1996: A severe weather outbreak combined with a blizzard occurred across the upper Midwest. Intense low pressure tracking into Minnesota produced blizzard conditions over portions of South Dakota, while further east in Minnesota, unseasonably mild temperatures developed. Temperatures climbed to near 70, with dew points in the 50s. 1 to 1 3/4 inch hail and strong winds were reported in Lac Qui Parle, Yellow Medicine, Chippewa, and Swift Counties. These storms produced 12 tornadoes; the strongest of which received F2 ratings. Southwest of Alexandria in Douglas County, an F2 tornado with a 9 mile track destroyed several homes. One woman sustained broken bones and internal injuries when a portion of her house, with her inside, was launched 200 feet onto the interstate. This tornado also pushed over a 500 pound fuel tank. Tornadoes also touched down in Swift, Kandiyohi, Pope, Stearns, and Isanti Counties.

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A complex storm is impacting the central and western United States on Thursday. This will bring the potential of heavy rain in the central U.S. with heavy snow from the Northern Rockies to the Northern Plains.

From Wednesday through Thursday, 3-5" of rain could fall from Kansas to central Texas, leading to the potential of flash flooding. Another 1-2" of rain could fall Thursday into Friday across portions of the upper Midwest, leading to at least some ponding or minor flooding as this area saw heavy rain earlier this week. Meanwhile, the first major winter storm of the season is impacting areas from the Cascades to the Northern Plains, with the potential of over a foot of snow at the higher mountain elevations.

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Hurricane Otis unleashes a 'nightmare scenario' Category 5 strike on Acapulco and southern Mexico

More from CNN: "Hurricane Otis unleashed a "nightmare scenario" on Acapulco in southern Mexico Wednesday morning after the storm rapidly intensified into a Category 5 just before landfall and gave officials and residents little time to prepare. Otis strengthened from a tropical storm to an extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane in just 12 hours before it slammed ashore near Acapulco as the strongest storm on record to hit this area and the Pacific coast of Mexico. The sudden burst of power gave people little time to prepare and get to safety as Otis bore down on Acapulco, a popular tourist destination that's also a permanent home to roughly 800,000 people."

Climate scientists warn Earth systems heading for 'dangerous instability'

More from ABC News: "Forecasts about the negative effects of human-caused climate change are not uncommon, but new research published Tuesday makes even more dire claims, declaring that "life on planet Earth is under siege" and that "we are pushing our planetary systems into dangerous instability." The study, titled "The 2023 State of the Climate Report: Entering Uncharted Territory" and published in the journal Bioscience, points to specific climate events in 2023 to support its findings, including exceptional heat waves across the globe, historic and record-breaking warm ocean temperatures, and unprecedented low levels of sea ice surrounding Antarctica. The 12 international scientists who created the report indicated that in so far in 2023, there have been 38 days with global average temperatures more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service earlier this month indicated that 2023 will likely go on record as the hottest year ever recorded."

Tiny deer and rising seas: How climate change is testing the Endangered Species Act

More from NPR: "Some people keep dogs in their backyards. In the Florida Keys, some residents have deer the size of a golden retriever in their yards. As sea levels rise and salt water climbs higher on the islands, it's shrinking habitat for this deer — which already has an estimated population of at most 1,000. Chris Bergh, the South Florida Program Manager with The Nature Conservancy, says the changes in sea level over the past decades have caused pine rockland forests in the Keys, the main habitat for the Key deer, to recede by hundreds of meters. This shrinkage is raising major ethical and logistical questions for the federal wildlife managers tasked with keeping endangered species like the Key deer alive."

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- D.J. Kayser