The Big Ten's West Division race took on a new look last weekend: chaos.
Saturday will bring clarity to bunched-up Big Ten West
Illinois can control matters by beating Purdue. It has the tiebreaker over Gophers, Iowa and Wisconsin.
When Illinois lost 23-15 at home to Michigan State, and Purdue fell 24-3 to visiting Iowa, suddenly five of the division's seven teams were within a game of the lead: the first-place Fighting Illini at 4-2 in conference play and the Boilermakers, Gophers, Iowa and Wisconsin tied for second at 3-3.
On Saturday, a measure of clarity will emerge in the chase to crown a West champion, mainly because of two matchups: Purdue at Illinois, and Wisconsin at Iowa.
"The biggest thing at this point of the season is we don't control our destiny other than winning,'' said Wisconsin interim coach Jim Leonhard, whose sentiments can be uttered by his colleagues in Iowa City and Minneapolis. "We have to handle our business and keep yourself in the conversation.''
Illinois (7-2 overall) can control that conversation Saturday by beating Purdue, losers of back-to-back games to Wisconsin and Iowa. The Illini own tiebreakers over Wisconsin, Iowa and the Gophers, and if they beat the Boilermakers, they'd have what amounts to a two-game lead in the division with two to play.
Illinois finishes the season against Michigan and Northwestern. Should the Illini beat the Boilermakers, only a 0-2 finish would imperil their division title hopes.
Coach Bret Bielema, though, spent the early part of the week trying to get his team in the right mind frame after the discouraging loss to Michigan State.
"No one wanted to be 7-2 this week,'' he said. "… We want to chase the Big Ten championship. Fortunately, as disappointing as Saturday was, because of what we've done, those things are still in front of us.''
Purdue can right two weeks of wrongs by knocking off the Illini, which would leave the Boilermakers in a four-way tie for the division at 4-3 among Illinois, the Wisconsin-Iowa winner and the Gophers (if they beat Northwestern). The Boilermakers have the tiebreaker over the Gophers but lost to both Iowa and Wisconsin. They finish with two last-place teams, Northwestern and Indiana.
Coach Jeff Brohm isn't thinking that far ahead. He's trying to get his team prepared for the trip to Illinois after cold weather and wind, plus Iowa's stingy defense, led to a 21-point defeat.
"We have not played well in bad elements,'' said Brohm, whose team could face a brisk wind and temperatures in the 30s in Champaign. "When you're a precision passing team, that's not going to be as efficient.''
In Iowa City, Wisconsin and Iowa will play what amounts to an elimination game when it comes to contending for the West title. Both teams enter with 5-4 overall marks and 3-3 Big Ten records.
The Hawkeyes, who've struggled on offense for most of the season, have come to life in the past two weeks with a 33-13 win vs. Northwestern and the 24-3 triumph at Purdue. Quarterback Spencer Petras, who threw only two TD passes against five interceptions in the season's first seven games, has passed for 412 yards and two TDs with no picks in the past two.
In Madison, Leonhard continues to audition for the permanent job at Wisconsin, and his results so far have been solid. The Badgers are 3-1 under Leonhard, losing only in double overtime at Michigan State. Improved play from quarterback Graham Mertz has been important. Since Leonhard took over for the fired Paul Chryst, Mertz has thrown only one pick.
For the Gophers, Illinois' loss last week left the door to the West title open a crack. While there are scenarios of a four-loss team winning the West, that can of worms can be opened later. Minnesota needs to win its final three games to get to 6-3 and then have Illinois and Purdue lose twice to fall to 5-4.
Parker Fox gave the Gophers a big boost off the bench, scoring 18 points and helping turn a two-point halftime lead into double figures.