CDC drops most of Minnesota out of COVID-19 high-risk range

The Twin Cities and most of Minnesota are at a low COVID-19 risk level, according to a new federal system for assessing local pandemic threats.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention update was good news but not surprising in Minnesota, where all indicators of COVID-19 severity are in free fall. The state's reported COVID-19 test positivity rate has dropped below the 5% caution threshold for the first time since Aug. 2. COVID-19 hospitalizations dropped from a recent peak of 1,629 on Jan. 14 to 472 Thursday.

"The decreasing disease burden in Minnesota gives us reason to anticipate brighter days ahead," state Health Commissioner Jan Malcolm said in a statement Friday. While "relieved to see COVID-19 case numbers drop," the commissioner urged people to stay up-to-date with vaccinations and "use the layers of protection they feel appropriate in light of their community and personal circumstances."

The CDC last week debuted a risk detection system that evaluated counties mostly by the rate of COVID-19 admissions and bed usage in local hospitals. Thursday afternoon's update put Hennepin County and 59 other Minnesota counties in the low range, while keeping a cluster of 24 mostly central counties in the moderate range.

Olmsted, Polk and Wabasha counties remained in the high range, the only level at which the CDC now recommends that all people wear masks indoors in public. All three counties host or are near regional hospitals and that could influence their hospital-based risk levels.

Nationally, high-risk clusters remain in regions such as Appalachia and the Nebraska panhandle, but the COVID-19 wave caused by the highly infectious omicron variant has peaked.

Minnesota on Friday reported 11 more COVID-19 deaths and 833 more coronavirus infections. The state's totals in the pandemic are 12,183 COVID-19 deaths and more than 1.4 million infections, including more than 61,000 reinfections of people who tested positive more than once. The infection total is an undercount given the number of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases that were never tested, and the advent of at-home rapid tests that go unreported to the state.

Friday's report included the death of a Dakota County resident in the 25-29 age range — the state's 49th involving someone younger than 30. Overall, 82% of Minnesota's COVID-19 deaths have been seniors, but that proportion has fallen to 71% since July 1 as more deaths occurred in mostly unvaccinated younger adults.

Minnesota hospitals were at or over capacity during the surge in mid-December, when leaders of Twin Cities health systems made a joint public plea for people to get vaccinated, wear masks and practice social distancing.

The latest detailed federal data showed how the pressure has eased. Mercy Hospital in Coon Rapids had been among the state's busiest, with COVID-19 cases making up 32% of the 426 patients in adult inpatient beds during the week of Dec. 10. The hospital's emergency room was treating patients in hallways because treatment bays were full.

By the week of Feb. 18, Mercy's average inpatient bed occupancy had declined to 355, and only 10% of those patients had confirmed COVID-19.

Public health leaders predicted at least a prolonged break from COVID-19 in Minnesota, because of the high level of temporary immunity through recent infections or vaccination.

Variants that spread faster than the original virus caused three pandemic waves in Minnesota in 2021 and health officials are monitoring for any new variants.

Sampling of sewage at the Metropolitan Wastewater Treatment Plant in St. Paul started showing a decline in coronavirus spread in the Twin Cities in early January, days before Minnesota showed a decline in new COVID-19 cases.

A weekly update from the plant Friday showed low and declining presence of the coronavirus in wastewater but that an omicron BA.2 subvariant made up 10% of viral samples — up from 5% a week earlier.

"We expect to see BA.2 ... become the dominant omicron subvariant in the coming weeks," said John Schadl, a spokesman for the Metropolitan Council, which operates the plant.

While BA.2 appears no more severe and is spreading globally at a time of declining COVID-19 numbers, the World Health Organization late last month said the subvariant should still be closely monitored for its ability to spark infection waves.