Cold and somewhat snowy week ahead

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the extended temperature outlook keeps us colder than average through Thanksgiving. Ready or not, weather models continue to suggest that our first snow accumulations of the season are possible next week. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

November 13, 2022 at 3:30AM
Dip & Dots Snow on Saturday (@TNelsonWX/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Cold & Somewhat Snowy Stretch Ahead

It has been quite cold over the last couple of days and it appears that the cold is here to stay through at least Thanksgiving. The week ahead could feature a few scattered snow showers and perhaps even some light accumulations close to home. Here's the weather outlook through the week ahead, which shows light snow chances starting late Sunday night through at least midweek.

Weather Outlook Through Saturday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snow Next Week?

According to the NBM model, there could be a few inches of snow as we head into the week ahead. Light shoveling duties maybe required across the state. Stay tuned...

NBM Extended Snowfall Outlook Through Midweek (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Sunday

Sunday will be another very chilly day across the region with highs only warming to 30F in the Twin Cities. Note that our average high for this time of the year is in the low/mid 40s, so we'll be nearly 10F to 15F below average for mid November.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook on Sunday

Here's the weather outlook for Sunday, which shows temps only warming into the 20s across much of the state. These readings will be a good -10F to -15F below average for this time of the year. We'll see a little more sunshine that what we had on Saturday, but clouds will be on the increase again late in the day ahead of another light snow chance late Sunday night into early next week.

Weather Outlook on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Feels Like Temps on Sunday

Feels like temps early Sunday morning will be chilly with readings down around 20F. Much of the day will feel subfreezing with wind chill values only 'warming' to around 30F in the afternoon.

Hourly Feels Like Temps on Sunday For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms For Minneapolis

Temps on Sunday will still be quite cold for this time of the year. Readings in the morning will start in the low/mid 20s in the Twin Cities and will only warm to around 30F for the daytime high in the afternoon. Note that winds will generally be light with increasing clouds late in the day.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts For Minneapolis on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Departure From Average This Fall

It has been a very dry Fall so far with precipitation running more than 4.52" below average (since September 1st). The September 1st - November 10th time period was the 6th driest on record.

Precipitation Departure From Average Since September 1st (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st

The Twin Cities is nearly 9.5" below average for the year, which is the 21st driest start to any year on record (through November 10th). Meanwhile, International Fall, MN is still nearly 9.71" above average, which is still the 2nd wettest start to any year on record there.

Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Drought Update

It has been a dry year for many across central and southern MN. Extreme drought continues across parts of the Twin Cities to the Minnesota River Valley where rainfall deficits have been the greatest. It would be nice to get a good soaking prior to heading into winter, but it doesn't appear that anything substantial is on the way anytime soon.

Minnesota Drought Update (US Drought Monitor/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Continued Cold Through Mid November

The 850mb temp anomaly through most of next week shows below average temps across much of the Upper Midwest. It appears that the cold air is here to stay for quite some.

850mb Temp Anomaly Through Next Week (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows well below average temperatures in place over the next several days. It'll feel more like winter with highs only warming into the 20s and lower 30s, which will be nearly -10F to -20F below average for this time of the year.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows well below average temperatures in place over the next several days. There could also be several days of light snow next week, which could mean light snow accumulations across the region. Stay tuned...

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

Here's the extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis through the last full week of November. The NBM Model shows well below average temperatures continuing with another surge of colder weather late next week/weekend.

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows colder than average temps in place across much of the nation and especially across the eastern two-thirds of the nation as we approach the week of Thanksgiving.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows quieter weather in place across most of the eastern two-thirds of the nation.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Cold and somewhat snowy week ahead
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

It's beginning to look a lot like winter every where you go. Take a look at highways 5 and 10, they're glistening once again with salt trucks and icy roads that glow... Not quite as elegant as a Bing Crosby version, but adequate for a Weird Al Yankovic cover?

After a mild and more September-like start to November, Mother Nature sent us spiraling into a more December-like scene late last week. There have been several reports of shivering Minnesotans; also appearing to be disoriented. Local meteorologists have been prescribing extra layers while dusting off cobwebs from the snow shovels buried deep in the garage.

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the extended temperature outlook keeps us colder than average through Thanksgiving. Ready or not, weather models continue to suggest that our first snow accumulations of the season are possible next week. Note, the MSP Airport typically averages around 7 inches during the month of November.

Bundle up and enjoy the ride, we're in it for the long haul now. Winter is coming!

Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Cold. Increasing clouds. Winds: ESE 5. High: 31.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with light snow. Winds: Calm. Low: 24.

MONDAY: Light snow. Slippery coating possible. Winds: ESE 5. High: 33.

TUESDAY: Scattered snow showers. Slow commutes. Winds: NNE 5. Wake-up: 27. High: 32.

WEDNESDAY: Lingering light snow showers. Winds: NNW 5. Wake-up: 25. High: 30.

THURSDAY: Flake or flurry. Feels like January. Winds: WNW 7-12. Wake-up: 15. High: 25.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Well below average temps. Winds: WNW 7-12. Wake-up: 10. High: 17.

SATURDAY: Nippy winds. What month is it? Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 8. High: 28.

This Day in Weather History

November 13th

1986: Lakes are frozen over throughout much of the state, reaching as far south as Winona.

1938: A snowstorm develops across northern Minnesota. The barometer falls to 29.31 inches in Duluth.

1933: The first Great Dust Bowl Storm occurs. The sky darkened from Minnesota and Wisconsin to New York State.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

November 13th

Average High: 43F (Record: 71F set in 1999)

Average Low: 29F (Record: 0F set in 1986)

Record Rainfall: 1.04" set in 1951

Record Snowfall: 7.7" set in 2010

Twin Cities Almanac For November 13th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

November 13th

Sunrise: 7:07am

Sunset: 4:46pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 38 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 26 seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 hour & 1 minutes

Moon Phase for November 13th at Midnight

2.3 Days Before Last Quarter Moon

2.3 Days Before Last Quarter (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps Sunday

The weather outlook on Sunday shows well below average temperatures across much of the nation with readings nearly -10F to -20F below average.

National Weather Outlook For Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook Sunday

The weather outlook for Sunday shows a little lingering precipitation across the Northeastern US with some light rain/snow chances. There is also a developing area of low pressure in the Southwest that will bring more widespread precipitation to the Central US into the week ahead.

National Weather Map For Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

The weather outlook through Monday shows a decent storm system developing in the Central US with areas of heavy rain and snow farther north. This could cause some travel concerns for some locations.

Weather Outlook Through Monday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavy precipitation from Nicole will finally move off the Northeast coast. There will also be another surge of heavier rains in the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall Potential

According to the ECMWF (European model), there could be heavier snowfall from the Midwest to the Northeast over the coming days. Stay tuned...

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"One Total Lunar Eclipse Photo to Rule Them All"

"We've seen some great images from the total lunar eclipse this week. But this one might top them all. Astrophotographer Andrew McCarthy created this incredible composite image, showing the Moon in various stages of the eclipse throughout the night. "The size and shape of Earth's shadow is clearly visible here," McCarthy said on Twitter. "These events are absolutely magical to witness and quite surreal." McCarthy witnessed and photographed the entirety of the eclipse from his backyard in Arizona. Besides the noticeable 'band-aid' shape of the image, if you look closely, you can see exactly how the Moon moved through Earth's shadow throughout the eclipse."

"Sea levels might rise much faster than thought, data from Greenland suggest"

"Greenland's largest ice sheet is thawing at a much higher rate than expected, a new study has revealed, suggesting it will add six times more water to the rising sea levels than previously thought. And the trend may not be limited to Greenland, scientists worry. The study used GPS measurements and computer modeling to estimate how much ice is being lost due to climate change from the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS), a prominent ice flow that drains ice and meltwater from Greenland's inland ice-covered basin. The calculations revealed that, since 2012, NEGIS melting has been speeding up so much that by the end of this century, it will add more than 0.5 inches (1.3 centimeters) of water to the global ocean level. That's equivalent to the past 50 years' worth of Greenland's entire contribution to sea level rise."

"WE MIGHT EXCEED THIS MAJOR CLIMATE TIPPING POINT IN NINE YEARS"

"DUE TO PANDEMIC-RELATED lockdowns and the slowdown of the international economy, carbon emissions plummeted worldwide in 2020, providing a temporary reprieve from our alarming upward trajectory of global warming. Unfortunately, as the world resumed pre-pandemic activity, that decline sharply reversed last year with no end in sight to the climbing emissions in 2022, according to a new report published on Thursday by the Global Carbon Project, which releases annual reports on global carbon emissions."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

about the writer

Todd Nelson

See More