Counterpoint: Why local Democrats succeeded with Muslims when national campaigns fell short

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On Nov. 13, the Minnesota Star Tribune published ”Democrats lost support with Somali Minnesota voters in the 2024 presidential election,” which began with the phrase, “Once a reliable Democratic voting bloc, Somali Americans increasingly turned away from the party in last week’s presidential election.” As a leader with the Muslim Coalition of Faith in Minnesota, I would like to respectfully disagree with the framing and conclusions of this piece. Over the last six months, hundreds of leaders with the Muslim Coalition across the state of Minnesota engaged tens of thousands of members of our broader communities about voting in this year’s election. We held trainings and listening sessions, and knocked on tens of thousands of doors.

Through that organizing work, we heard many of the concerns that the reporting of the Star Tribune highlighted. Just as we ourselves are horrified by the ongoing violence against Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, and the war in Lebanon, so were the people whose doors we knocked on or attended a training at a mosque. The Joe Biden campaign, and then the Kamala Harris campaign, did not do anywhere near enough to earn the votes of Muslim voters in Minnesota, Michigan or elsewhere in the country.

However, what we also heard was that Muslim voters across the state viewed Democrats in Minnesota differently than they did Democrats nationally. Democrats in the state have stood with us against Islamophobia, worked to support young people and make child care more affordable, and supported Uber and Lyft drivers who wanted basic workplace protections and a minimum wage. Even as the Trump campaign nationally made appeals to Muslim voters in other parts of the country, Minnesota Republicans were not viewed that way.

This is not just anecdotal data; the Muslim Coalition of Faith in Minnesota knocked on more than 13,000 doors of Muslim voters across the state and had more than 5,000 conversations in that setting. These voters live in swing state House districts, and when the votes came in on election night it was clear that many of them did not vote for Harris but did vote for DFL candidates running for the Minnesota House. In St. Cloud, we had more than 3,000 conversations with Muslim voters in House Districts 14A and B; in the three precincts with the most Muslim voters in 14A, DFL candidate Abdi Daisane outperformed Kamala Harris by 29%, 16% and 6%. In District 14B, DFL candidate Dan Wolgamott outperformed Harris by 4-6% in the three precincts with the most Muslim voters.

That pattern existed outside of St. Cloud as well. In District 32B in Blaine and Lexington, DFL candidate Matt Norris outperformed Kamala Harris by 3-5% in the precincts with the most Muslim voters. Across his district, 370 people voted for Jill Stein for President, and Harris only won 49% of the vote; Norris won 51%. Our leaders also had thousands of conversations with Muslim voters in districts 54A in Shakopee, 55A in Burnsville and Savage, and 57B in Lakeville. In each of those districts, DFL House candidates outperformed Harris in the precincts with the largest number of Muslim voters.

To be clear, the reporting from the Star Tribune does address a real dynamic, particularly a “frustration that Democrats take [Muslim] votes for granted while failing to address their concerns.” While out canvassing door to door this year, our leaders had longer conversations than they normally do. Many Muslim voters were incredibly conflicted about not just who to vote for in this election, but whether to vote at all. At a national level too many Democrats did not invest the time, energy and curiosity to meet Muslim voters where they were at. Many national Democrats do not engage in the sort of grassroots organizing we do, that keeps us connected to our community members and reminds us constantly that Muslim voters are not a monolith. Each person has agency and a different self-interest when entering a voting booth.

In Minnesota, in places where there was less organizing, Muslim voter turnout decreased significantly. The Star Tribune’s reporting focused on three specific precincts where Muslim voters make up a significant portion of registered voters, in Cedar-Riverside (Ward 6, Third Precinct), Seward (Ward 6, Ninth Precinct) and West Lake St. (Ward 8, First Precinct). It is true that these three precincts saw significant changes in election results from 2020 to 2024, but the biggest swing there came not because of people switching from one candidate to another, but switching from voting to staying home.

In those three precincts, 1,531 fewer people voted in 2024 than in 2020. President-elect Donald Trump did better in each precinct this year than he did four years ago: Trump won 17% of the vote in Cedar-Riverside, up from 8% in 2020; 12% in Seward, up from 6% in 2020; and 16% along W. Lake Street, up from 7% in 2020. While those percentage swings look incredibly significant, in terms of raw votes, Trump only won 200 more votes in 2024 than he did in 2020. The real shift in these percentages is driven by the decrease in turnout across all three precincts. Harris received 1,861 fewer votes than Joe Biden did four years ago across those three precincts, and overall turnout fell by 17% in Cedar-Riverside, 16% in Seward and 7% in West Lake St.

Given the unwillingness of the top of the ticket to do deep engagement with Muslim voters, should we be surprised that many in Minneapolis sat out this election? Particularly when we compare it to what happened in the swing districts where we worked to organize Muslim voters and those voters demonstrated that they still want to vote for Democratic House candidates who have delivered for them, the difference is stark. At the Muslim Coalition, we have learned that we get what we organize for. This is a lesson that only dawned on too many national Democrats while watching the election returns come in on Nov. 5. I hope that they learn from it moving forward.

Imam Mohamed Omar is a faith-based and cultural organizer, political strategist, and co-founder of the Muslim Coalition of Faith in Minnesota.