Crippling Ground Blizzard By Late Week?

Models suggest 5-10" of new powder by the end of this week. If you're trying to find the best window for travel I suggest today or Wednesday AM. Travel by land and air will be treacherous from Thursday into Christmas Eve. The Christmas Blizzard of 2022? Sounds about right. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

December 20, 2022 at 3:30AM

Key Messages This Week

*Dangerous Cold Through The Upcoming Weekend

*Plowable Snow Potential Wednesday & Thursday

*Blizzard Conditions Thursday Into Friday

Major Weather Concerns This Week (NWS Twin Cities/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities December Stats

Temps are running closer to average through the first 18 days of the month. Precipitation is nearly 0.60" above average and snowfall is above average by a few inches as well. The next several days will be MUCH colder, so temps will likely trend below average with additional snow chances again Wednesday & Thursday.

Twin Cities December Stats So Far (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snow Depth

Thanks to our latest storm system, many places are reporting deep snowpack across the region. The heaviest being found across the Dakotas through the northern half of Minnesota into Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan. Meanwhile, 5" of snow covered the ground in the at the MSP Airport over the weekend. Duluth is reporting a snow depth of 24".

Snow Depth (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snow So Far This Season

Believe it or not, the Twin Cities has seen more than 23" of snow so far this season, which is nearly 9" above average since July 1st. Interestingly, this has been the 16th snowiest start to any season on record in the Twin Cities. (July 1st - December 18th). Incredibly, Duluth has seen more than 55" of snow this season, which is nearly 30" above average and the 3rd snowiest start to any season on record.

Snowfall So Far This Season (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Snowfall Departure From Average Since July 1st (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

ECMWF (European Model)

According to the ECMWF (European Model), accumulating snow arrives Wednesday into Thursday. This will be a fluffy snow because temperatures will be so cold, which will easily blow around as winds gusts approaching 45mph Thursday into Friday. Blizzard-like conditions will develop late week, which will cause major travel concerns from the Midwest to the Great Lakes.

ECMWF Weather Outlook From AM Wednesday to PM Saturday (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

GFS (American Model)

According to the GFS, the solutions is about the same as the ECMWF. Snow develops Wednesday into Thursday with increasing winds Thursday and Friday, which will create blizzard-like conditions around the region.

GFS Weather Outlook From AM Wednesday to PM Saturday (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Getting MUCH Colder

The temperature trend shows a significant surge of colder air settling in across the eastern two-thirds of the nation through much of the week and weekend ahead. This could be one of the coldest and potentially snowiest weeks leading up to Christmas in quite some time for folks east of the Rockies. Folks that have travel plans will want to pay attention to weather forecasts and prepare for extreme cold and snow.

850mb Temp Anomaly Through Saturday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows much colder temps in place through through the 2nd half of the month. The coldest days arrive midweek and linger through the upcoming Holiday Weekend. The last few days of 2022 could see a slight warming trend as we get closer to the freezing mark. After several days of very cold weather this week, that will feel like a heat wave.

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday

The Twin Cities on Tuesday, December 20th will be colder than average once again with temps only warming into the single digits. WNW winds around 10mph will make it feel more like the subzero range all day.

Tuesday Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Preadictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook on Tuesday

Temps across the region on Tuesday will be very cold once again with readings nearly -10F to -30F below average across the state. Even colder temps will be found across Western Minnesota and into the Dakotas, where temps will be nearly -30F below average and may not warm above the 0F mark.

Tuesday Weather Outlook (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms For Minneapolis

Temps on Tuesday will start off on a very chilly note with readings in the lower single digits. Temps will warm into the mid/upper single by the afternoon with light snow developing through the 2nd half of the day. WNW winds will be breezy around 10mph-15mph through the day with sunnier skies.

Hourly Temps and Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Hourly Feels Like Temps

Feels like temps through the day Tuesday will be very cold with readings starting in the teens below zero with readings in the single digits below zero during the afternoon.

Hourly Feels Like Temps For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Coldest Wind Chills

Here are the coldest wind chills over the next few days. The coldest days Thursday, Friday and Saturday as the winds pick up and the Arctic air surges into the region. This will be dangerously cold with significant frostbite potential.

Coldest Wind Chills Next Several Days (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The week ahead will be well below average with temps anywhere from -20F to -30F below average. There is a chance that we don't climb above 0F late in the week, which will be some of the coldest air since February of 2021.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

It'll definitely be MUCH colder over the next several days. Temps mid/late week may only warm into the single digits. It'll be snow Wednesday into Thursday with strong winds and potential blizzard-like conditions Thursday into Friday. Dangerously cold wind chills will be in place through the weekend.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The ECMWF extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows colder temperatures over the next several days. There is a chance that we could see some warning late month with temps back to near the freezing mark once again.

ECMWF Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temps returning across much of the nation.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place across much of the nation, especially in the Western US

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Crippling Ground Blizzard By Late Week?
By Paul Douglas

All I want for Christmas is the ability to get out of my driveway. That may be asking a lot, based on what I'm seeing: a plowable to crippling snowfall, followed by ground-blizzards by Friday.

Siberian air will flood the USA east of the Rockies - arctic chill as far south as the Gulf Coast and Florida. An intense storm winding up over the Great Lakes will pump Gulf moisture into Minnesota, obviously cold enough for all-snow, a dangerous "cold storm". An intense pressure gradient will whip up 40-50 mph gusts by Friday, turning new powder into near-blizzard conditions and white-outs from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will be near 0F by day with a chill factor ranging from -25 to -40F. Extra-dangerous if you get stuck.

Models suggest 5-10" of new powder by the end of this week. If you're trying to find the best window for travel I suggest today or Wednesday AM. Travel by land and air will be treacherous from Thursday into Christmas Eve. The Christmas Blizzard of 2022? Sounds about right.

Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: Chilled sunshine. Winds: W 7-12. High: 5.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy and cold. Feels Like: -16F. Winds: WNW 5-10. Low: -5.

WEDNESDAY: Snow becomes steadier/heavier. Winds: NE 8-13. High: 2.

THURSDAY: Periods of snow, blowing/drifting. Winds: NW 15-30. Wake-up: -5. High: -1.

FRIDAY: Winds over 40mph. Ground blizzards? Winds: NW 20-45. Wake-up: -11. High: 0.

SATURDAY: Flurries taper, more drifting snow. Winds: NW 15-40. Wake-up: -3. High: 6.

SUNDAY: Light snow or flurries. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: -7. High: 3.

MONDAY: Partial clearing, not as numbing. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 1. High: 11.

This Day in Weather History

December 20th

1989: Minnesotans are hard pressed to find snow cover across most of the state. Only good places to cross country ski are at Grand Marais and along the Gunflint Trail.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

December 20th

Average High: 27F (Record: 51F set in 1967)

Average Low: 14F (Record: -24F set in 1916)

Record Rainfall: 0.74" set in 1902

Record Snowfall: 4.6" set in 2010

Twin Cities Weather Almanac For December 20th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

December 20th

Sunrise: 7:47am

Sunset: 4:34pm

Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 46 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~7 seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 hour & 50 minutes

Moon Phase for December 20th at Midnight

2.1 Days Before New Moon

Moon Phase For December 20th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps on Tuesday

The weather outlook on Tuesday will be colder than average across much of the nation. The coldest will be found across the High Plains, where some may not even warm above 0F during the day.

National Weather Outlook For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook Tuesday

The weather outlook for Tuesday shows lingering showers and storms across the Gulf Coast, while another developing storm takes shape in the Pacific Northwest.

National Weather Map For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

Light snow will linger across the Great Lakes through early Wednesday before another major storm develops and moves into the Central US mid/late week. This storm will be responsible for areas of heavy snow and very strong winds, which will cause widespread blowing and drifting / blizzard-like conditions.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavy precipitation across the much of the Eastern half of the nation. There will also be some heavy precipitation across the Gulf Coast States and the Pacific Northwest.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall Potential

According to the ECMWF (European model), heavy snow will be possible over the next several days across the northern tier of the nation. Next week could certainly bring a wallop of snow somewhere east of the Rockies, which could mean messy traveling for some. Stay tuned...

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"An Unmistakable Stain in America's Most Pristine Rivers"

"Dozens of once crystal-clear streams and rivers in Arctic Alaska are now running bright orange and cloudy—and in some cases, they may be becoming more acidic. This otherwise-undeveloped landscape now looks as if an industrial mine has been in operation there for decades, and scientists want to know why. Roman Dial, a professor of biology and mathematics at Alaska Pacific University, first noticed the starkest water-quality changes while doing field work in the Brooks Range in 2020. He spent a month there with a team of six graduate students, and they could not find adequate drinking water. "There's so many streams that are not just stained; they're so acidic that they curdle your powdered milk," he says. In other streams, the water was clear, "but you couldn't drink it [because] it had a really weird mineral taste and tang."

"People are loving this simple hack to stop you slipping on icy pavements"

"The UK is currently experiencing the big freeze, with snow and ice weather warnings continuing across the UK after the record for the coldest night of the year so far was broken for the second night in a row. Brrrrr. With temperatures plummeting and snow and ice falling across many areas of the UK, slipping on an icy pavement is a very real risk right now. While some people are trying to avoid skidding over by trying to stick to paths and roads that are gritted, one woman has come up with a simple yet clever hack for avoiding falling over in the wintry conditions. With driveways and paths turning into hazards, TikTok user @mels_family_life has shared trick to increase your grip on the ice and help prevent you toppling over."

"A derecho swept through the Midwest a year ago. Now there are efforts to better define the storms"

"It was an unusually warm day in mid-December. "Everybody commented that it was just kind of spooky," said Matt Thompson, who co-owns Lost Grove Ag Services, a seed and fertilizer application business near Harcourt, Iowa. "You don't see that on December 15." Thompson heard reports that it was going to storm, so he made sure all machinery at the business was put away. By 6 p.m., he said, tornado sirens were going off and wind was coming through. By the time the sun came up the next day, five of the businesses' six buildings were gone. "We didn't know what we were going to do," Thompson said. "It was pretty devastating to see. It was unbelievable. I'll never forget that."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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Todd Nelson

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