In an election year, keep your finance game plan simple

There are many different ways you can say “too close to call.” Tossup. Game of inches. Statistical margin of error.

Recent polls show a tight race for the White House between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. The outcome of the election will have major implications for economic policy. For example, Trump wants to extend his signature 2017 tax cuts, lower the corporate tax rate and dismantle much of the Biden administration’s green policy initiatives. Odds are Harris would continue Bidenomics while pushing for the “care economy” plans that were part of the administration’s earlier Build Back Better blueprint that didn’t survive congressional negotiations.

Considering the economic stakes, history provides some guidance on how investors should respond during the campaign: Stay the course. The lesson is for workers and households saving for their retirement in a 401(k), 403(b) and similar plans.

The conclusion comes courtesy of a data dive into market history by Bob French of Retirement Researcher. He looks at the S&P 500 index back through January 1926. There have been 23 presidential elections in that time. The average annual return of the S&P 500 Index from 1926 through 2023 was 11.5% per year. Returns averaged 9.1% in election years and 13.6% in non-election years. (French cuts the numbers multiple ways, and the message remains the same.)

That is a significant difference, of course. Yet trading to take advantage of the return gap mining data revealed is hard. The information is already priced into the markets. There is always a lot of noise signifying nothing in the market. Short-term trading strategies designed to boost returns from moments like presidential campaigns are typically hazardous to your wealth.

“The fundamentals of long-term investing for retirement still win out,” French wrote. “Instead of making short-term adjustments to try and beat (or outsmart) the markets, focus on building a portfolio that works for you and that you can hold yourself to over the long term.”

Invest like Bobby Flay, the well-known chef and television host. He recently told the Wall Street Journal he is a good saver.

“I’m a believer in the U.S. economy, and so I invest in the market and know that in a handful of years, I should be in a better place than I was when I started,” he said. “It’s a very simple philosophy, but over the course of our history, it works.”

Keeping it simple is smart.

Chris Farrell is senior economics contributor, “Marketplace”; commentator, Minnesota Public Radio.