Randy Johnson's Gophers-Northwestern prediction: Who wins and why?

Gophers vs. Northwestern, 2:30 p.m. Saturday, Huntington Bank Stadium, BTN, 100.3-FM

The Gophers avoided a letdown last week at Nebraska, rallying from a 10-point deficit to beat the Cornhuskers 20-13. Minnesota (6-3, 3-3 Big Ten) is in a four-way tie for second in the Big Ten West and will try to keep its faint division title hopes alive against the Wildcats (1-8, 1-5).

Three big story lines

1. Will Athan Kaliakmanis start for the Gophers?

Kaliakmanis replaced injured starting quarterback Tanner Morgan to start the third quarter at Nebraska and led the Gophers' comeback by completing six of 12 passes for 137 yards and rushing three times for 27 yards. The redshirt freshman led four scoring drives and completed passes of 38 and 45 yards.

2. What record is next for Ibrahim?

Gophers running back Mohamed Ibrahim rushed for 128 yards and two touchdowns against Nebraska, giving him 1,083 yards and 15 TDs this season. He has 4,086 career rushing yards, trailing only Darrell Thompson (4,654) and Rodney Smith (4,122) in school history.

3. Will the defense start strong?

Three times in Big Ten play — vs. Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska — the Gophers defense allowed the opponent to score on its first possession. Those slow starts bit Minnesota in losses to the Boilermakers and Fighting Illini and nearly did so against the Huskers.

Two key matchups

Northwestern RB Evan Hull vs. Gophers linebackers

Hull, a junior from Maple Grove, is the engine of Northwestern's offense, leading the team with 701 yards on 166 carries and ranking second with 46 catches for 465 yards. He's seeking to become the first Wildcat since Justin Jackson from 2014-17 to have consecutive 1,000-yard rushing seasons.

Gophers offensive line vs. Northwestern LBs

Bryce Gallagher and Xander Mueller rank third and 10^th in the Big Ten with 86 and 70 tackles, respectively, and have combined for 12 tackles for loss and three interceptions. Center John Michael Schmitz leads a line that has helped the Gophers rush for 212.2 yards per game.

One stat that matters

6.2 Points allowed per game for the Gophers in their six wins, all against teams with sub-.500 records.

The Gophers will win if … they control the line of scrimmage with their run game; Kaliakmanis, the presumed starter at QB, stretches the field with his running ability while avoiding turnovers; and their special teams deliver a solid performance like they had at Nebraska.

The Wildcats will win if … they get an early lead and frustrate the Gophers defense with Hull and wide receiver Malik Washington, trying to shorten the game; QB Brendan Sullivan is efficient with his passing and keeps Minnesota off balance with his running; and they're opportunistic enough to get a couple of takeaways.

Prediction

It might be human nature for the Gophers to look ahead to the trophy games against Iowa and Wisconsin in the following two weeks, but coach P.J. Fleck was guarding against taking Northwestern lightly because of its 1-8 record. Minnesota should be focused and dialed in, especially if Kaliakmanis is making his first home start.

Expect heavy doses of Ibrahim, who's averaging 32.7 carries over the past three games, especially if the wind is a factor on a day with a high temperature expected to be 30. The Gophers will want to control the clock and set things up for a few downfield passes. On defense, if the Gophers are a three-and-out machine like they were in the last three quarters at Nebraska, they should have a successful afternoon.

My expectation: The Gophers are workmanlike in their last tune-up before they play Iowa for Floyd of Rosedale on Nov. 19 and Wisconsin for Paul Bunyan's Axe on Nov. 26. Gophers 24, Northwestern 10.