Heating Up With Increasing Thunderstorm Chances

Backyard thermometers will tickle the 90s once again today with mid 90s likely tomorrow, which could be the hottest day of the year so far! Spotty showers and storms arrive late tomorrow and linger through the 4th, some of which could be a bit vigorous. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

July 2, 2023 at 2:30AM
(@TNelsonWX/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Severe Threat on Monday

According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there is a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms on Monday across parts of central and northern Minnesota. The threat remains pretty isolated at this point with the greatest risks being gusty winds and hail. Stay tuned...

Severe Risk on Monday (NOAA SPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Simulated Radar

The simulated radar from AM Sunday to Midday Monday shows mostly dry and quiet weather across the state with the exception of the far NW corner of the state later into the weekend. The thunder threat will increase even more as we head into the early part of next week. Stay tuned...

Simulated Radar From AM Sunday to Midday Monday (COD Weather/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Potential

Here's the precipitation outlook through AM Monday, which shows very little precipitation across the state. However, rainfall potential will increase as we slide into early next week.

Precipitation Potential Through AM Tuesday (WeatherBell & NOAA's NDFD/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Current Burning Restrictions

Thanks to several days and weeks of hot and extremely dry weather, there remains a burning restriction across northeastern Minnesota.

Burning Restrictions (MN DNR/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Drought Update

It has been an extremely dry stretch of weather across much of the station over the last several weeks. Only a few locations have seen decent pockets of rain, but the drought is expanding. Severe drought conditions have popped up across parts of central Minnesota with moderate drought now in place across parts of the Twin Cities.

US Drought Update (US Drought Monitor/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

60 Day Precipitation Anomaly

The map below shows the 60 day precipitation anomaly, which indicates that some locations are nearly -3.00" to nearly -6.00" below average (in red) since mid May. This is where drought conditions are expanding.

60 Day Precipitation Anomaly (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

2nd Driest June on Record at MSP

Believe it or not, the MSP Airport only saw 0.93" of rain for the month of June, which is good enough for the 2nd driest June on record. Note that there have only been 3 Junes on record that have seen less 1" of rain since records began in the 1870s.

2nd Driest June on Record at MSP (NOAA NWS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

4th Driest May 1st - June 30th on Record at MSP

There has only been 2.55" of rain at the MSP Airport since May 1st, which is the 4th driest May 1st - June 30th on record. The driest such stretch was back in 1988, when only 1.92" of rain fell.

3rd Driest May 1st Through July 2nd at MSP (NOAA NWS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Sunday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Sunday, July 2nd shows another warm and dry day in place with highs warming to around 90F. Skies will be mostly sunny with a few clouds from time to time.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms For Minneapolis

The hourly temps through the day Sunday shows temps starting around 70F in the morning with highs warming into the lower 90s by the afternoon. It'll be a mostly dry and warm day with southerly winds around 10mph.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook For Sunday

Temps across the region on Sunday will warm into 80s and lower 90s, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average for early July. It'll also be a mostly dry day across much of the region as well.

Weather Outlook For Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

Temperatures for the Twin Cities will continue to remain above average through Tuesday with readings warming into the low/mid 90s. The warmest day will arrive on Monday with highs in the mid 90s, which will likely be the warmest day of the year so far. It'll be quite a bit cooler by Wednesday and Thursday with highs only warming into the upper 70s.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Stickier Dewpoints Linger Early This Week

Dewpoints will remain sticky into the first week of July with readings in the low to mid 60s. A cool front will move through midweek with a chance of showers and storms and cooler and less humid air moving in behind it.

Daily Dewpoint Forecast For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook for the Twin Cities will be hot and mostly dry through Monday. It'll be hot with temperatures warming into the 90s through Monday as well before scattered showers and storms arrive late Monday into Tuesday. Lingering t-showers will be possible Wednesday with cooler temps into the 70s

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook

The NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows above average temperatures continuing into early July. The hottest day will be Monday with readings in the mid 90s before we cool down into the upper 70s and lower 80s later next week.

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook

Weather conditions in the Midwest will be hot and dry through the early part of next week. However, scattered showers and storms will be possible late Monday into Tuesday with a few pockets of locally heavy rain. It'll get a little cooler midweek with highs dipping into the 70s.

National Weather Outlook Through Next Weekend (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14-day temperature outlook shows warmer-than-average temperatures across the Southern US, while cooler temps develop across parts of the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic States.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather possible across parts of the northern tier of the nation, especially from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast. Drier weather will continue in the Southwestern US.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Heating Up With Increasing Thunderstorm Chances
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas

According to a recent article released by Yale Climate Connections, 2023 could become one of the nation's costliest severe-weather years on record. Due to recent bouts of very large hail across the nation during the month of June, the amount of insured losses is already on track to exceed 30 billion dollars this year. By the end of 2023, this year could rival the top two insured loss years on record: 2020 ($44 billion) and 2011 ($40 billion).

Meanwhile, the lack of rain, thunderstorms and even severe weather close to home has been quite staggering. MSP is 6 inches below normal precipitation since May 1st with expanding drought concerns across the state. June 2023 was officially the 2nd driest and 3rd hottest on record with more hot and dry weather spilling into early July.

Today backyard thermometers will tickle the 90s once again with mid 90s likely tomorrow, which could be the hottest day of the year so far! Spotty showers and storms arrive late tomorrow and linger through the 4th, some of which could be a bit vigorous.

Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Hot & Hazy. Winds: SW 5-10. High: 91.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and warm. Winds: S 5. Low: 71.

MONDAY: Hottest Day of 2023 So Far. PM Storm. Winds: SW 5-10. High: 96.

TUESDAY: 4th of July Rain and Rumbles. Winds: WNW 7-12. Wake-up: 72. High 90.

WEDNESDAY: Cooler. Lingering clouds and showers. Winds: N 5-10. Wake-up: 66. High: 78.

THURSDAY: Sunny skies. Comfy temps. Winds: WNW 8-13. Wake-up: 57. High 78.

FRIDAY: Southerly winds return. Still dry. Winds: SSW 5-10. Wake-up: 58. High 81.

SATURDAY: Breezy. Late day t-shower risk. Winds: SSE 10-15. Wake-up. 62. High: 82.

This Day in Weather History

July 2nd

1989: Softball sized hail falls near Dorset, and baseball sized hail is reported at Nevis in Hubbard County.

1972: A low of 32 is recorded at Big Falls in Koochiching County.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

July 2nd

Average High: 83F (Record: 99F set in 2012)

Average Low: 65F (Record: 49F set in 1924)

Record Rainfall: 2.18" set in 1992

Record Snowfall: NONE

Twin Cities Almanac For July 2nd (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

July 2nd

Sunrise: 5:31m

Sunset: 9:02pm

Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 31 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: 46 Seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 5 minutes

Moon Phase for July 2nd at Midnight

0.2 Days Until Full "Buck" Moon

July 3 at 6:39 a.m. CDT - The Full Buck Moon, when the new antlers of buck deer push out from their foreheads in coatings of velvety fur. It was also often called the Full Thunder Moon, thunderstorms being now most frequent. Sometimes also called the Full Hay Moon.

Moon Phase For July 1st at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps on Sunday

Temperatures on Sunday will be well above average across the Midwest and Western US. The good news is that the extreme heat in the Southern US will begin to fade a little, but it'll still be quite hot!

National Weather Outlook For Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Sunday

The weather outlook on Sunday will be a little unsettled across parts of the Central and Eastern US. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

National Weather Map For Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

The weather outlook through Monday shows unsettled weather across parts of the Central and Eastern US with strong to severe storms possible. There could also be locally heavy rainfall and isolated flood concerns.

Weather Outlook Through Monday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation across parts of the Central US, from the Central Plains to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley and into the Northern New England States. Meanwhile, the Western US will be hot and dry into next week.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Drought hits the Midwest, threatening crops and the world's food supply"

"City leaders in Storm Lake, a rural community of 11,000 in Northwest Iowa, are asking residents not to wash their cars or water their yards and gardens during the hottest part of the day. The city also has cut back on watering public recreational spaces, such as ballfields and golf courses. These are highly unusual steps in a state that is normally flush with water and even prone to flooding. But the rain in Iowa, along with the rest of the Corn Belt states of the Midwest, has been mysteriously absent this spring, plunging the region into drought. "It's something new that residents have never had to really deal with before," said Keri Navratil, the city manager of Storm Lake. As California and much of the Western United States ease out of drought conditions after a spectacularly wet winter, the Midwest has fallen victim to a dry, hot spell that could have devastating consequences for the world's food supply."

"What Is a Heat Dome and How Long Can It Last?"

"A heat dome occurs when a persistent region of high pressure traps heat over an area. The heat dome can stretch over several states and linger for days to weeks, leaving the people, crops and animals below to suffer through stagnant, hot air that can feel like an oven. Typically, heat domes are tied to the behavior of the jet stream, a band of fast winds high in the atmosphere that generally runs west to east. Normally, the jet stream has a wavelike pattern, meandering north and then south and then north again. When these meanders in the jet stream become bigger, they move slower and can become stationary. That's when heat domes can occur. When the jet stream swings far to the north, air piles up and sinks. The air warms as it sinks, and the sinking air also keeps skies clear since it lowers humidity. That allows the sun to create hotter and hotter conditions near the ground."

"Watch: Mammoth Mountain's Snake Run Is The Best It's Ever Been"

Mammoth Mountain, California still has 58 inches (nearly 5 feet!) of snow at the Main Lodge. The summit still has a whopping 116 inches (9.67 feet) of snow. This season's record snowfall is allowing the resort to stay open well into the summer. As of now, Mammoth plans to remain open through at least ate-July. One of the best features on the mountain is the massive snake run that's been carved out by hundreds of skiers near Chair 3. Check out the video below of yours truly ripping down the snake on Monday, June 26th, 2023: It's hard to tell in the video, but the majority of the snake run walls were taller than me! No joke. It's easily one of the deepest and fastest snake runs I've ever seen. We enjoyed lapping the snake all weekend long, but I must say — crashing on a snake run is less than ideal. I got absolutely booted out of it one time. Thankfully the snow was soft and slushy.

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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about the writer

Todd Nelson

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