Retailers start sales: 'The traditional holiday shopping season is dead'

The leaves may still be on the trees, but the Christmas sales are already starting.

On Tuesday, Amazon launched a two-day "Prime Early Access Sale" for members of its loyalty program. Best Buy started its own two-day promotion and said it would have specials for its loyalty program shoppers every Monday for the rest of the year.

And Target, which just last week ran a "Target Deal Days" promotion, began a weeklong "Black Friday Deals" promotion on Sunday, three weeks earlier than last year and six weeks before the actual Black Friday. Through Thanksgiving, its deals will debut each Sunday.

"The traditional holiday shopping season is dead," said Carlos Castelán, managing director of the Navio Group, a Minneapolis retail management consulting firm.

It's the second straight year that American stores and shoppers started preparing for the holidays early.

Last year, it was because factory delays and shipping congestion led to fears of product shortages. This year, experts say inflation is leading people to shop early in hopes of avoiding further price rises.

Those early shoppers will find that retailers are offering more promotions to pare down bloated inventory. "With supply-chain backlogs easing and inventory rising amidst continued inflation, we expect to see greater deals this holiday season," Castelán said.

In another sign this holiday shopping season will look different, Best Buy also announced this week it will be closed on Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 24), a trend retailers started in 2020 to lessen crowds in stores. Now retailers, including Target, have opted to close their doors on the holiday as deals are spread out over weeks.

AlixPartners, the global consulting firm, last month forecast that holiday sales will be up 4% to 7%. But with the current inflation rate above 8%, that means retailers could see a decrease in real sales.

Online shopping activity is not expected to play as big of a role in growth. On Monday, Adobe Analytics forecast U.S. online sales to rise 2.5% this holiday compared to last year.

Consumers are having a tougher time paying their bills, but many still plan to spend this holiday.

A September survey by the National Retail Federation (NRF) showed that households earning more than $75,000 a year are twice as likely to say they are having difficulty paying their usual expenses than they were a year ago. Yet 62% of holiday shoppers say it is important to spend on holiday gifts and celebrations even if they have to cut back in other areas.