Hot Weather Continues With Severe Storm Chances

The Storm Prediction Center has updated the severe outlook for today and tonight, issuing an Enhanced Severe Risk across portions of northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. This Enhanced risk includes Duluth, Brainerd, and Grand Rapids. Storms later this afternoon and evening will be capable of up to baseball-sized hail (2.75" in diameter) and wind gusts to 70 mph. While the tornado risk is low, it is non-zero, meaning we could see an isolated weak tornado or two.

Here's the forecast loop from the HRRR (a high-resolution model that updates hourly) that goes from 4 PM this afternoon through 7 AM Tuesday. This model has storms popping in northern Minnesota around the 6-7 PM timeframe, pushing off into northern Wisconsin through the evening hours. This model also has more storms forming across central Minnesota into western Wisconsin around and after midnight tonight.

Meanwhile, an Excessive Heat Watch has been issued for Tuesday and Wednesday across central and southern Minnesota for the potential of heat index values up to 105F and little relief Tuesday Night with lows in the low/mid-70s. I have more on the potential heat index values below.

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Another hot day is on tap Monday in the Twin Cities, with highs climbing into the low 90s under mainly sunny skies.

With a warm front situated from near Fargo to Duluth on Monday, temperatures will once again climb into the 90s across central and southern Minnesota Monday with stickier air returning as well. Storms are possible in the late afternoon to overnight hours.

Due to that increased moisture in the atmosphere, we will be watching heat index values start to climb a little across the region with mid-90F degree values possible during the late afternoon hours in the Twin Cities.

As we watch the potential of storms late Monday into Monday night, a few of them could be on the strong side. A Slight Risk of severe weather is in place just north of the Twin Cities, including St. Cloud and Duluth, with the Twin Cities under a Marginal Risk. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out, especially near where the frontal boundary will be placed.

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Highs climb even farther upward on Tuesday and Wednesday across central and southern Minnesota, with highs in the mid-90s both days in the Twin Cities. Especially by Wednesday, there are some areas to our southwest that could touch 100F for a high. A few storms could be possible Tuesday Night as we still watch a frontal boundary across the region, with a slightly better chance Wednesday as a cold front approaches and moves through.

Dewpoints will also be on the rise - especially Tuesday and Wednesday - sitting in the upper 60s to low 70s in the Twin Cities.

With the hot temperatures and climbing dewpoints, heat index values will also be on the rise. Especially on Wednesday, we could see heat index values approach 100F in the Twin Cities during the afternoon hours. With the expected heat index values, I would expect Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings in central and southern Minnesota to be issued for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Once we get through the heat the first half of the week, we watch a cold front slide through late Wednesday. That'll bring an end to the heat wave as highs will fall back to the upper 80s for Thursday and Friday. Yes, that isn't much relief, but as you saw above dew points will also tumble back into the 50s and 60s, meaning it will feel more comfortable as well.

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If we do see any storms form late Tuesday or Tuesday night, they once again could be on the strong side with a Marginal Risk of severe weather in place. Damaging winds and large hail would be the main threats. Don't be surprised to see another severe threat Wednesday.

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The Joys of Peak Summer in Minnesota
By Paul Douglas

A Minnesota summer is otherworldly, like parachuting into a watery daydream. White noise of surf breaking on a hot sugar sand beach, highlighted by the cry of random loons. Throw in the crack of a bat at Target Field, fresh walleye, and what may be the best sweet corn on the planet. Your honor, July more than compensates for January. I rest my case.

Our unusually hot, dry, sunny summer has brought unusually low dew points and a lack of frontal boundaries capable of sparking heavy rain or severe storms. I'm struck by an absence of large hail and destructive tornadoes this year. One tiny silver lining during a drought.

A few T-storms bubble up today, again Wednesday as cooler air approaches. After mid-90s Tuesday and Wednesday temperatures retreat to the low 80s Saturday. Any other summer that qualify as a warm front. But in 2021 that might just be a cool front.

A warm, dry bias continues into August. Drought may not ease much until late autumn. Even so models hint at heavier rain by the middle of next week.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Unsettled, few T-storms. Wake up 68. High 91. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY: Hot sunshine, probably dry. Wake up 71. High 92. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind E 5-10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Hot and muggy with T-storms. Wake up 74. High 94. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

THURSDAY: Fresh air! Sunny and cooler. Wake up 69. High 84. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind N 10-20 mph.

FRIDAY: Plenty of comfortable sunshine. Wake up 67. High 84. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 7-12 mph.

SATURDAY: Normal temperatures, brief PM T-shower. Wake up 64. High 82. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind N 15-25 mph.

SUNDAY: Blue sky, touch of September. Wake up 60. High 78. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
July 26th

*Length Of Day: 14 hours, 54 minutes and 4 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 2 minute and 10 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 14.5 Hours Of Daylight? August 6th (14 hours, 27 minutes, and 43 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/After 6 AM?: August 2nd (6:00 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/Before 8:30 PM?: August 7th (8:30 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
July 26th

1981: A chilly morning occurs across the Northland, with 33 degrees at Roseau and Wannaska.

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On Monday we'll be watching scattered showers and storms across the Southeast, with monsoonal storms in the Southwest. A frontal boundary will help spark storms - some strong to severe - in the upper Midwest. Storms will be possible in New England.

We could see several areas of heavier rain across the nation in the next few days, but most areas will see under three inches of rain through Tuesday evening.

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More Than 130 People Dead in India After Monsoon Rains Lead to Flooding and Landslides

More from Gizmodo: "At least 136 people have died and more than 90,000 have been evacuated in the Indian state of Maharashtra after monsoon rains buffeted the area this week, resulting in devastating landslides and flooding, authorities told CNN on Saturday. Experts say that Maharashtra, one of the most populous states in the nation, hasn't seen such a torrential downpour during the month of July in at least four decades, Reuters reports. As of Saturday, major rivers were still in danger of rising past their banks, while hundreds of villages remain cut off by floodwaters and debris."

Boise neighborhood struggles with private wells drying up amid drought

More from KTVB: "With the vast majority of the Gem State experiencing some level of drought conditions, a neighborhood in southwest Boise is finding out how costly digging deeper for water will be. Over the last two months, Danielle Tiddy and her neighbors' wells started going dry. They found out that it isn't an isolated or cheap issue to fix in the area. Suez Water said the water wells were dug 50 years ago when the area was farmland and only go down 50 feet. Since then, the aquifer hasn't been replenished due to development."

The West's Megadrought Has Ruined Some of the Most Iconic Trout Fishing in the U.S.

More from Earther: "If you're planning to go fishing in Yellowstone National Park this summer, you better head out there in the early morning, because starting on Saturday, the park will be closing all fishing in rivers and streams each day from 2 p.m. until sunrise. The park said these new fishing hours, which will be in effect until further notice, will help protect its native fish population. This summer, those fish have been under serious stress due to hot water temperatures and low stream flows, both symptoms of the megadrought. Extreme heat waves that have rippled across the West this summer, worsening conditions even further. In a statement, park officials said temperatures in some of Yellowstone creeks' and rivers have surpassed 68 degrees Fahrenheit (20 degrees Celsius) and that water levels are approaching "approaching historic lows.""

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser