Isolated Storm Possible Saturday - More Rain Saturday Night Into Sunday

The latest Drought Monitor was released on Thursday, and despite heavier rains across portions of central Minnesota over the past week (through Tuesday morning), most drought categories once again saw an increase in coverage.

There was a mix of both improving and worsening drought across the state, leading to mostly small changes in the amount of Minnesota under various drought categories.

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Forecast loop between 7 AM Saturday and 7 AM Sunday.

As an area of low pressure slowly moves across the Upper Midwest this weekend, we will be watching rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the region. As shown in the forecast loop above, a few showers or storms could be ongoing around sunrise Saturday between Sauk Center to Lakeville and in far southwestern Minnesota. While the batch near the metro will dissipate during the day, shower and storm potential will continue across western Minnesota, including a line of potentially strong to severe storms during the evening hours. More showers and storms could spread across parts of the state by Sunday morning.

A few of those storms late afternoon into the overnight hours could be strong to severe in southwestern Minnesota. While hail and wind are the greatest risk, a few isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out.

As we look at the metro on Saturday, we'll watch that morning chance of a shower or storm. Otherwise, partly sunny skies are expected. Saturday is expected to be the driest day of the weekend. Morning temperatures start off around 70F with highs in the low to mid-80s.

As shown above, the best chances of storms at any time during the day Saturday will be in central, southern, and western Minnesota. Most of Minnesota will see highs in either the 70s or 80s.

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Sunday: The second half of the weekend looks like it could be a bit rainier in the Twin Cities with showers and storms as that area of low pressure continues to move through the region. It'll also be the coolest day, with highs in the upper 70s.

Monday: Drier, sunnier weather moves back in with highs climbing back to the low 80s.

Here's a look at the expected rainfall amounts through the weekend. A band of at least 0.5-1.5" is possible somewhere across central and southern Minnesota.

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As we head into the new work week, temperatures will rebound into the low 80s here in the metro. However, a cold front moving through on Wednesday will knock temperatures back down to the 70s for the second half of the week.

What is important to note is that models show an increased chance of precipitation as we head through the middle of the month. It's too early for details and to know whether it's enough to help get us out of the drought - but rain is helpful!

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Sunday Rainfall Amounts Have Come Down

By Paul Douglas

Every storm is like a snowflake, diamond or human being: altogether different and uniquely flawed with numerous imperfections. And capable of breaking your heart faster than a high school prom date.

I don't want to bury the lede: the weekend storm we've been tracking may not be as wet as earlier advertised. Shocking. We're in a severe drought. Beggars can't be choosy.

Weather sours from west to east across Minnesota later today, but the sun stays out much of today from Brainerd and metro lakes eastward into Wisconsin with highs reaching well into the 80s. Bands of showers and thunderstorms arrive from the west later today and tonight, lingering into much of Sunday, but we'll be lucky to pick up .5 to 1" of rain, as drier air wraps into the storm circulation, limiting rainfall amounts. Still significant but not the drenching we were hoping for.

Skies clear Monday with comfortable 70s and a few low 80s next week. More showers slosh into town Wednesday. No debilitating heat but wildfire smoke? Oh yeah.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SATURDAY: Sunny, windy. Late storms. Wake up 70. High 87. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Showers and T-storms, a few downpours. Wake up 68. High 78. Chance of precipitation 100%. Wind NE 10-20 mph.

MONDAY: Sunny, breezy and pleasant. Wake up 65. High 81. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY: Plenty of warm sunshine. Wake up 63. High 84. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind W 7-12 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Showers, few rumbles of thunder. Wake up 64. High 78. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind NE 8-13 mph.

THURSDAY: Sunny and comfortable. Wake up 60. High 77. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind N 5-10 mph.

FRIDAY: Some sun, T-storm late? Wake up 61. High 80. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
August 5th

*Length Of Day: 14 hours, 31 minutes, and 30 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 30 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 14 Hours Of Sunlight? August 17th (13 hours, 59 minutes, 17 seconds)
*When Are Sunrises After 6:30 AM? August 28th (6:30 AM)
*When Are Sunsets At/Before 8:30 PM? August 8th (8:30 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
August 5th

1904: A Detroit Lakes woman is hit by lightning. It melts her hairpins and the steel in her corset but does not kill her.

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We continue to watch several areas of low pressure across the nation on Saturday, leading to the potential of showers and thunderstorms. Hot weather continues to plague the Southern Plains and desert Southwest as well.

Two areas of particularly heavy rain are possible Friday through Sunday - one in the area of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers, and another in the Northern Plains. In both areas, 3-5" of rain will be possible which could lead to flash flooding.

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After 30 years, researchers at the University of Minnesota Duluth have created a new tree

More from the Star Tribune: "It took nearly 30 years, but researchers based at the University of Minnesota Duluth have bred a new variety of tree with an already lengthy list of ways it can be used — ranging from expediting shade in residential neighborhoods to quickly removing toxins from the soil. The tree variety, InnovaTree, is born of cross-pollinating native Minnesota cottonwood and European poplar. It grows up to 8 feet per year — 64% faster than other commercial trees — and tops out at about 75 feet tall. The Natural Resources Research Institute (NRRI) hosted the commercial launch of its InnovaTree last week at Hauser's Superior View Farm in Bayfield County. Dozens of potted trees, the first available to the public, lined a stage. Even the director of NRRI, an applied research organization, seemed surprised by the trees' ample height — some up to 5 feet tall — given their relative youth."

Global ocean temperatures soared to the highest level on record this week

More from CNN: "The temperature of the planet's oceans rose to new heights this week, setting a new record with no sign of cooling down. The average global ocean surface temperature hit 20.96 degrees Celsius (69.7 Fahrenheit) at the end of July, according to modern data from the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service, beating the previous record of 20.95 degrees Celsius set in 2016. The Copernicus ocean data goes back to 1979. Scientists say the world needs to brace for ocean temperatures to keep rising as the arrival of El Niño – the natural climate fluctuation that originates in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and has a warming impact – layers on top of human-caused global warming."

Climate change is hitting close to home for nearly 2 out of 3 Americans, poll finds

More from the PBS Newshour: "At the end of the hottest month on record, which left millions in the United States sweltering under heat advisories, nearly two-thirds of U.S. adults say that climate change is noticeably affecting their local communities, and a majority also see climate change as causing serious effects right now, according to the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll. "People see that climate change is already a threat and will continue to be a growing threat in the future, and they support changes to keep people safe and prepared, especially on the local level," said Bernadette Woods Placky, chief meteorologist at Climate Central, an independent research and communication organization."

Fight Fire With — AI? Artificial Intelligence Tackles Wildfires

More from CleanTechnica: "With wildfires blazing across Canada and blotting out the sun in much of America's Midwest and Western Europe, not to mention the onset of California's "wildfire season," the rush is on to create better early response technology and even ways to precisely predict breakouts and early intervention, which offers the best chance of controlling wildfires. Now, a company called Pano AI is using new data models and continuous surveillance to help catch fires as soon as they start, and before they run wild. Pano AI is currently building out the largest blaze-detecting network in the Pacific Northwest, monitoring some 2.4 million hectares (about 6 million acres) of land across California, Colorado, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Montana and using real-time fire hazard detection and assessment to alert of response teams, early, potentially saving time that could mean the difference between containment and tragedy."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser