The Vikings are not close yet to being mathematically eliminated from postseason contention after a 1-4 start.
But given all that is wrapped up in that inauspicious beginning — most importantly including a hamstring injury to star receiver Justin Jefferson that will sideline him for at least the next four games — they already are on a very clear path to being practically and emotionally eliminated from a competitive season.
Is the season over? Professional ESPN shouter Stephen A. Smith made some compelling points in declaring it so, noting that the Vikings weren't all that good even with a healthy Jefferson and already face a steep climb to get back into a wild card or division hunt with a quarterback in Kirk Cousins who has seldom carried a team.
I'm not there yet, but the burden of proof falls to the Vikings and there is no margin for error. And to be clear: I will be there yelling "SEASON'S OVER" if the Vikings lose to the Bears on Sunday, something that is entirely possible.
As it stands now, there are two paths forward — something I talked about on Tuesday's Daily Delivery podcast.
The first is that the Vikings win at least two of their next four games without Jefferson — and quite possibly two of their next three before the trade deadline.
That makes Sunday's game at 1-4 Chicago, which has shown signs of life lately and has actually outscored Kevin O'Connell's Vikings 115-110 on the season, a must-win.
If the Vikings can win that one and muster a win either against San Francisco (good luck) or Green Bay (possible, given how middling the 2-3 Packers look), they would be 3-5 at the trade deadline with several winnable games ahead and Jefferson's potential return just one game away.
With wins over the Bears and Packers, they would be 2-0 in the division and might feel like there was a chance to catch the Lions with two late-season head-to-head meetings looming.
Let's be honest, though: That feels like the less likely option. More likely: The Vikings lose at least two of their next three without Jefferson and are tempted to deal veterans like Danielle Hunter, K.J. Osborn or even QB Kirk Cousins — who would need to waive a no-trade clause — before the Oct. 31 trade deadline. Maybe they shut down Jefferson even longer to make sure he's fully healed.
That would hasten the "rebuild" part of GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's avowed "competitive rebuild," and it could yield the sort of high draft pick in 2024 that could help the Vikings select their quarterback of the future.
Even if the Vikings don't make major changes before the deadline, the path they are on suggests they are headed for significant moves before next season.
Jefferson was ranked the No. 2 player in the NFL before this season started. The only other players on the list (Hunter at 81 and Cousins at 94) are free agents who are more likely to be gone as losses mount this year. This is a roster that needs major talent upgrades at a lot of spots, not just temporary fixes, and Adofo-Mensah's first two draft classes have been underwhelming so far.
For now, time is running out and resources are getting thinner. The Vikings have a nearly half-century history of failing to string together even two consecutive great regular seasons, and this year has been more of the same after last year's surprising 13-4 mark.
It might not be over yet, but you can see the end from here.
Here are four more things to know today:
*I talked on Tuesday's podcast about Sonny Gray, the Twins' Game 3 starter and also an impending free agent. It's hard to imagine the Twins' rotation without him, but that could be a reality soon.
*Monday's dramatic 5-4 Atlanta win over Philadelphia was the first game in playoff history to end on a double play started by an outfielder, which seems wild to me.
*We're back in bonus podcast mode. There will be a special edition of Daily Delivery Tuesday night after Game 3 and another one planned Wednesday night after Game 4.
*Check out Wild beat writer Sarah McLellan's excellent feature on goalie Marc-Andre Fleury. McLellan will be my guest on Wednesday's regularly scheduled podcast, with the Wild's regular season set to start on Thursday.
