Less Ice - More Snow Thursday and Friday

Last night's icy concoction gives way to a little rain today at MSP; roads still OK. But the storm we're enjoying will stall nearby, prolonging snow from late tonight into Friday morning. Another 3-6" of snow is likely across much of the metro, with some 8" amounts far north metro, and a broad swath of 8-12" over much of central and northern Minnesota. Duluth and the North Shore may pick up 1-2 feet. Check the blog fore more details. -Todd Nelson

December 14, 2022 at 4:58AM

Waves of Wintry Precipitation

Weather Outlook From AM Wednesday to PM Thursday (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall Amounts Through Friday

Areas of heavy snow will continue from late Tuesday night through the end of the week with the heaviest snow staying north of the metro. Some double digits tallies will be possible north and east of St. Cloud, closer to the head of Lake Superior.

Snowfall Potential Through 6pm Friday (NWS Twin Cities/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Severe Threat Down South

According to NOAA's SPC, there is an ENHANCED RISK of strong to severe thunderstorms, where large hail, damaging winds and even a few strong tornadoes will be possible on Tuesday. The severe threat continues on Wednesday across the Gulf Coast States.

EHANCED SEVERE RISK Wednesday (NOAA SPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
SLIGHT SEVERE RISK Thursday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Getting Colder As We Approach Christmas

The temperature trend over the next several days will be warmer than average as the storm system passes by. The extended temperature outlook show much colder weather in place as we approach Christmas.

850mb Temp Anomaly Through Next Wednesday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis, which shows warm than average temps in place through the the of the week and then a much colder air mass moves in by the weekend and into next week.

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday

The Twin Cities on Wednesday, December 14th, looks pretty messy with a wintry mix moving through mainly during the 2nd half of the day. Temperatures will warm into the mid 30s with strong winds.

Wednesday Weather Outlook For The Twin Cities (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook on Wednesday

Temps across the region on Wednesday will warm into the 30s across much of the state, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average.

Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms For Minneapolis

It'll be another mild day Wednesday with temp running above average for much of the day. Temps in the mid 30s in the morning and in the upper 30s in the afternoon. Easterly winds will be breezy through the day with gusts approaching 30mph.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Hourly Feels Like Temps

Feels like temps will be in the 20s through much of the day, but it wont be bitterly cold just yet. Wait for next week!

Hourly Feels Like Temps For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st

The Twin Cities is nearly nearly -9.68" below average for the year, which is the 18th driest start to any year on record (through December 12th). Meanwhile, International Fall, MN is still nearly 9.30"above average, which is still the 2nd wettest start to any year on record there.

Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Drought Update

It has been a dry year for many across central and southern MN. Extreme drought continues across parts of the Twin Cities to the Minnesota River Valley where rainfall deficits have been the greatest. It would be nice to get a good soaking prior to heading into winter, but it doesn't appear that anything substantial is on the way anytime soon.

MN Drought Update (US Drought Monitor/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook through next week shows fairly widespread heavy precipitation amounts through the week ahead. There will be some 0.50" to 1.00"+ tallies, some of which will fall in the form of heavy wintry precipitation across the region.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (WeatherBell & NOAA's WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook through the week ahead will be milder than average with highs approaching the mid the upper 30s through midweek. Temps start getting colder through the day Thursday and into the weekend ahead with well below average readings by the weekend.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days will be busier than average with precipitation expected almost every day through the next several days. It'll get colder late week and into the weekend ahead with temps dropping into the teens by the weekend.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

Here's the ECMWF extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows warmer than average temps through the week ahead. It gets colder as we head into the weekend and the week leading up to Christmas.

ECMWF Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temps across much of the Central US as we head into next week!

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place across the northern tier of the nation.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Less Ice - More Snow Thursday and Friday
By Paul Douglas

We can debate the merits of cold fronts and snow, but I have yet to meet internet trolls who are "pro-ice". Unless it's ice in a rink or a pond for hockey fans.

According to CDC slips on ice and snow account for 1 million injuries and 17,000 deaths every year, mostly from head trauma.

Last minute stocking stuffer: Yaktrax. Like strapping chains on your boots, lowering the risk of falling on ice.

Last night's icy concoction gives way to a little rain today at MSP; roads still OK. But the storm we're enjoying will stall nearby, prolonging snow from late tonight into Friday morning. Another 3-6" of snow is likely across much of the metro, with some 8" amounts far north metro, and a broad swath of 8-12" over much of central and northern Minnesota. Duluth and the North Shore may pick up 1-2 feet. A few more (cold/powdery) storms are shaping up next week. Christmas will be VERY white this year. And cold: highs in teens and single digits next week, with a few subzero lows. Santa will use PTO, apparently flying to Maui.

Extended Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Light rain MSP. Snow north. Winds: E 10-20. High: 37.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain & snow mix. Winds: E 10-15. Low: 32.

THURSDAY: Heavier (plowable) snow returns. Winds: N 8-13. High: 33.

FRIDAY: Snow tapers, 3-6"+ by Friday night. Winds: W 10-15. Wake-up: 25. High: 28.

SATURDAY: Flurries taper, peeks of sun. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 18. High: 23.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy and colder. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 3. High: 13.

MONDAY: Few clouds, arctic breeze. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 0. High: 9.

TUESDAY: Peeks of sun, bug-free. Winds: N 5-10. Wake-up: 5. High: 11.

This Day in Weather History

December 14th

1996: Snowfall exceeding one foot is reported from south central Minnesota through portions of the Twin Cities metropolitan area. Some of the higher snow totals include 15 inches at Rockford, 14 inches at Cedar and North Branch, 13 inches at Stewart and 7 to 10 inches across the central and southern parts of the Twin Cities metropolitan area.

1933: A severe ice storm hits southeast and central Minnesota.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

December 14th

Average High: 29F (Record: 55F set in 1998)

Average Low: 16F (Record: -27F set in 1901)

Record Rainfall: 1.50" set in 1891

Record Snowfall: 5.2" set in 1996

Twin Cities Almanac For December 14th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

December 14th

Sunrise: 7:43am

Sunset: 4:32pm

Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 49 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~36 seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 hour & 47 minutes

Moon Phase for December 14th at Midnight

1.1 Days Before Last Quarter

Moon Phase For December 14th at Midnight (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps on Wednesday

The weather outlook on Wednesday will be warmer than average through the Central US ahead of a storm system that will cause widespread disruptions through midweek. Areas of heavy snow and ice will be found up north, while strong to severe storms will be possible in the Southern US. Meanwhile, temps across the western half of the nation will be colder than average behind the storm system.

National Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook Wednesday

The weather outlook for Wednesady shows active weather in place across the Central US with heavy snow and ice to the north and widespread showers and storms across the Southern US with severe storms and heavy rainfall.

National Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

The main concern will be the major storm system across the Central US with widespread precipitation from the Gulf to the Canadian border. Severe storms will be possible across the Southern US with heavy snow and blizzard potential across the High Plains.

Weather Outlook Through Thursday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavy precipitation across the much of the Central and Eastern US.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall Potential

According to the ECMWF (European model), heavy snow will be possible over the next several days, mainly across the high elevations in the Western US and across parts of the Midwest. The Great Lakes and Northeastern US will also get in on some heavy snowfall

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"The U.S.' Addiction to Road Salt is Out of Control. These Cities are Trying to Cut Back"

"This winter's first snowstorm will be an adjustment for some residents in Davenport, a city of 100,000 on Iowa's side of the Mississippi river, which averages nearly 30 inches of snow over the season. Like many towns across the U.S. and Canada, Davenport dumps a hefty amount of rock salt across its roadways each year, melting ice and keeping conditions easy for drivers. But this year, residential streets on the northwestern side of town will be left salt-free. The trial, which may see residents have to drive a few blocks over snowy roads to reach major arteries, is Davenport's attempt to "find a balance" between road safety and a growing list of problems associated with road salt, says public works director Nicole Gleason."

'Weather Whiplash' Defined My Smoky, Muddy 2022. And Maybe Your 2023

"I've lived in the high desert of the southwestern US most of my life, primarily in New Mexico and Colorado. In those four decades, I've never seen it as dry here as in 2022. In all that time, I've also never seen it as wet as in 2022. In northern New Mexico, the year began with months of unseasonal heat, dryness and extreme wind that fueled the largest wildfire of the year in the lower 48 states. It burned through 340,000 acres of the Sangre de Cristo mountains and destroyed or damaged over a thousand homes and other structures."

"WHAT CHRISTMAS TREE IS BEST FOR THE ENVIRONMENT? HERE'S WHAT FORESTRY EXPERTS SAY YOU SHOULD BUY"

"THE DEBATE REARS its head every holiday season: Should I get a real tree or an artificial one? Which one is better for the environment? Artificial trees have been growing in popularity in recent years, but Americans still love the real deal. 26 million Christmas trees were sold in 2019. Bill Lindberg, a Christmas tree educator at Michigan State University's Extension program, tells Inverse it's "difficult to say exactly" which tree is better in terms of carbon dioxide emissions — the major greenhouse gas driving global warming — since the answer depends on several factors. It's a complex question with no simple answer, though experts come down pretty clearly in favor of one kind of tree when we think beyond just greenhouse gas emissions to overall sustainability. "Relative environmental impact of each is murky at best," Bert Cregg, a professor in Michigan State University's Department of Forestry, tells Inverse."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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Todd Nelson

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