Limping Into a Slushy, Squishy, Muddy March

There is storm-buzz for late week, and a messy storm is expected Friday into Sunday morning. But this time around there may be enough warm air tangled up in the circulation for a messy mix of snow, ice and rain. Right now it doesn't look like a snowy disaster, but stay tuned. I see 30s for highs into next weekend. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

March 1, 2022 at 3:30AM
Sartell on Monday (@DKayserWX/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Busy Week of Weather Ahead

Here's the weather outlook from AM Tuesday to AM Monday, which shows active weather as we head through the first few days of March. Weak clipper systems bring a chance of a light wintry mix on Wednesday, Wednesday and Thursday. However, a much larger storm appears to be developing later in the week and weekend ahead with a messy mix. It's still too early to get specific, but stay tuned as the week progresses.

Weather Outlook From AM Tuesday to AM Monday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Tuesday Weather Outlook

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows a chance of a light wintry mix. Precipitation will be very light, but there could be a minor snow coating as well as a light ice glaze across parts of the region.

Tuesday Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Tuesday show temps starting in the mid 20F in the morning and topping out in the mid 30s by the afternoon. Northerly winds will blow around 10mph through the day.

Hourly Temps & Sky Condition For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Wind Chill Values Tuesday

Feels like temps for Minneapolis on Tuesday will be in the 20s in the morning, but will warm to near 30F by the afternoon.

Hourly Feels Like Temps For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook on Tuesday

Tuesday temperatures will be close to average across much of the state. However, highs in the southwestern part of the state will be much warmer with temps approaching 60F near Sioux Falls.

Weather Outlook on Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows near average temps through midweek. Temps on Thursday dip into the mid 20s, which will be nearly -10F below average before returning to near average levels again later this week and weekend.

5 Day Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook through the week ahead shows somewhat active weather Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with light rain, snow and freezing rain possible. A bigger storm develops Friday and into the weekend with a messy wintry mix. Stay tuned...

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, readings will be quite a bit warmer than they were at the end of February. There appears to be a string of 20s and 30s with a couple of near 40F highs possible through mid month.

ECMWF Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
GFS Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows colder temps across the Western US with warmer than average temps in the southeastern US.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8-14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather possible across the Central & Eastern US.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Limping Into a Slushy, Squishy, Muddy March
By Paul Douglas

My knowledge of animals and proverbs is shaky, but if memory holds, when March comes in like a Fried Egg Jellyfish, it goes out like a Screaming Hairy Armadillo. Check my work. Not entirely sure what animals have to do with March weather, anyway.

Chances are March will bring slushy snows, rain, the first thunder of 2022 and a few 50-degree highs by late month. March snows can be significant, but they are usually wet and sloppy, melting within a few days. Did I mention mud and potholes? An improvement over 26 subzero nights so far this winter. But who's counting.

There is storm-buzz for late week, and a messy storm is expected Friday into Sunday morning. But this time around there may be enough warm air tangled up in the circulation for a messy mix of snow, ice and rain. Right now it doesn't look like a snowy disaster, but stay tuned. I see 30s for highs into next weekend.

February was 6.6F colder than normal with 11 subzero nights. Good times. The worst of winter is behind us. Surprise us March!

Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: Cloudy, few flakes. Winds: NE 5-10. High: 36.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Chance of a wintry mix. Winds: NNW 5. Low: 28.

WEDNESDAY: Light icy mix possible. Winds: N 7-12. High: 35.

THURSDAY: Colder with a little light snow. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 13. High: 24.

FRIDAY: Light rain/snow mix. Winds: E 10-20. Wake-up: 23. High: 34.

SATURDAY: Heavier rain/ice/snow mix. Winds: N 10-20. Wake-up: 30. High: 33.

SUNDAY: Flurries taper, some clearing. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 19. High: 26.

MONDAY: Few flurries, chilly. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 17. High: 28.

This Day in Weather History

March 1st

1966: The Blizzard of '66 hits Minnesota and lasts 4 days. Aitkin received 23 inches of snow. The snow depth at International Falls reached a record 37 inches by the end of the storm.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

March 1st

Average High: 34F (Record: 59F set in 1990)

Average Low: 18F (Record: -32F set in 1962)

Record Rainfall: 1.62" set in 1965)

Record Snowfall: 9.0" set in 2007

Twin Cities Almanac For March 1st (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

March 1st

Sunrise: 6:49am

Sunset: 6:00pm

Hours of Daylight: ~11 hours & 10 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 3 minute & 05 seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 2 Hour & 24 Minutes

Moon Phase for March 1st at Midnight

0.4 Days Before New Moon

Moon Phase For February 28th (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps Tuesday

The weather outlook on Tuesday shows above average temps in place across much of the nation. Some of the warmest temps will be found in the Southwestern US with record highs possible for some in the Central Valley.

National Weather Outlook For Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

Weather conditions through midweek shows areas of rain and snow across the northern tier of the nation. The heaviest precipitation will be found in the Pacific Northwest with areas of flooding and heavy mountain snow.

Weather Outlook Through Wednesday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavy precipitation will be found across parts of the Central US, Midwest and into the Great Lakes and Northeast. There will also be areas of heavy precipitation across the Pacific Northwest with heavy mountain snow potential.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Snowfall Outlook

Here's the ECMWF extended snowfall outlook through the week ahead, which shows areas of heavy snow across the northern tier of the nation and the Western US.

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"New UN report set to paint stark picture of impacts of climate change"

"A new UN science report is set to send what may be the starkest warning yet about the impacts of climate change on people and the planet. The assessment is the second in a series of three reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the latest review of climate science, which take place every six or seven years for governments. It is being published on Monday, a little over 100 days after the Cop26 summit agreed to increase action to try and limit global warming to 1.5C (2.7F) to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. The outcomes of the UN talks in Glasgow were described as keeping the temperature goal alive, but only with a weak pulse, by conference president Alok Sharma."

"Ranking heat waves like hurricanes is being proposed in California"

"Heat waves are the deadliest weather disaster in the US. They account for nearly 150 fatalities per year, more than hurricanes and tornadoes combined. New legislation in California hopes to reduce heat-related deaths by ranking heat waves similarly to hurricanes, by using categories and names. However, the National Weather Service (NWS) is currently in a multiyear experiment to also categorize heat waves. "Globally, people are suffering from heat because of a deadly awareness gap," said Kurt Shickman, the director of Extreme Heat Initiatives at the Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center (Arsht-Rock), which is helping lead the legislative action."

"Greenland's Huge Meltwater Waterfalls Generate Massive Hydropower"

The surface of the Greenland ice sheet is melting, creating a network of ephemeral rivers and waterfalls that scientists say produces more hydropower than the collective output of the 10 largest hydroelectric stations on the planet. It's part of a brutal feedback loop brought on by climate change that could hasten the rise in sea levels around the world. In summer, an increasing amount of the frozen surface melts, forming lakes and streams that rapidly make their way to the bottom of the ice sheet — traveling downward as much as a full kilometer — by rushing through cracks and large fractures. An international team of researchers set out to measure how much energy was created by this process. "There's a lot of gravitational energy stored in the water that forms on the surface, and when it falls, the energy has to go somewhere," Cambridge University professor Poul Christoffersen explained in a statement."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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