Max Kepler was playing his way out of town three months into the season. He was a sinkhole in the Twins lineup no matter where manager Rocco Baldelli put him. And, despite Kepler's above-average defense in the outfield, Matt Wallner or Trevor Larnach should have replaced him.
Max Kepler proved me wrong. Emilio Pagán proved me right. Here's why.
Kepler and Pagan had horrible starts to their Twins seasons. Many voices were asking for them to depart. The Twins kept both and those decisions are paying off now.
August 22, 2023 at 10:55PM
Emilio Pagán, however, deserved more chances after his poor start. The velocity of his fastball was at an all-time high. Although the exit velocity of some of the batted balls off him looked and sounded awful, there had to be a contributing role for him somewhere in the Twins bullpen.
Both have turned their seasons around and are playing important roles on a team that is grinding its way to an American League Central Division title.
I am here to offer an official apology to Kepler while thanking Pagan for proving me right.
What was tough about watching Kepler was his proclivity to hit weak ground balls, the result of his pull-happiness. When he hit the ball in the air, he could drive it. But I had given up hope that Kepler would figure things out. There also was a June 7 game against the Rays when he failed to advance to second in the ninth inning when Michael A. Taylor stole third. Royce Lewis followed with a single, which Kepler would have scored on. The Twins lost 2-1, with many scratching their heads about Kepler.
I advocated for Kepler and his .189 average (through his first 46 games) to be jettisoned. In 50 games since then, he's batted .285 with 13 home runs and a .904 on-base-plus-slugging percentage. There was a meeting with the coaching staff that might have played a role in this change. Kepler has become more aggressive at the plate. He's been the anti-Joe Mauer, attacking first pitches and hitting .357 off them.
Kepler has transformed from liability to asset. His exit velocity, hard-hit percentage and barrel percentage are all at career-high levels.
Max, I was wrong.
While I'm flogging myself for my attempts to fire Kepler, I'm going to pat myself on the back about Pagan until I need elbow surgery.
Pagán looked dreadful in May when he entered a game against the Dodgers and gave up a grand slam to James Outman. He carried a 5.60 ERA and lefthanded hitters were destroying him. Little did we know that Pagán's offseason work, during which he swung a weighted golf club at his home to help his delivery, was just starting to take hold. Since that awful day in L.A., Pagán has a 1.75 ERA in 35 games. His fastball is a career-high 95.8 mph. His slider and curveball also are playing up. When Outman connected off him, lefthanded hitters were batting .464 against him. Entering this week, lefties are down to .226 with a .694 OPS.
My plan for Pagán was simple: Keep him out of high-leverage situations and away from lefthanded hitters. It's hard to hide a struggling reliever unless you hand him a light rail pass to St. Paul. The Twins have needed Pagan to fill the breach because of injuries and the trade of Jorge López to Miami. And he's done so exceptionally. Twins Territory was not pleased about my support for Pagan. That's fine. You should have listened to me then, but just believe me now.
What was unknown was how Pagán would handle the scrutiny. He was accountable after poor outings and his demeanor now is similar to when he couldn't get anyone out.
"My rookie ball manager, Christopher Prieto, sat us down on day one in Pulaski, Virginia, in the Appalachian League and was like, 'It's easy to be a good teammate on your best days.' " Pagán said. "But the guys who are good teammates on their worst days are the guys who stick around for a long time. That's a speech I'll never forget."
Both Pagán and Kepler have fought through their worst days, and the Twins are better off because of it.
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