Here's a plea from a veteran observer of state budget crises: This time, do better by higher education. The usual way of rebalancing a listing state budget with disproportionately deep cuts to colleges, universities and student aid would now put too much that Minnesotans value at risk.
Word that Minnesota's 2020-21 state budget has fallen into a $2.4 billion hole — and is undoubtedly still falling — is bringing out the budget-balancing playbooks that, from my former perch in the State Capitol basement, I saw at least five times through 40 years. Whether the forecasted shortfall was big ($6.2 billion in 2011) or small ($800 million in 1987), the remedy governors and legislators employed had a common element: big cuts in higher education funding.
We hate to do this, the House budgeters always lamented. (They probably did. But they also knew that colleges and universities could and would raise tuition to stay afloat.)
As soon as we can, they assured, we'll bump up appropriations to both institutions and the State Grant Program, which flows to low- and middle-income students in both public and private colleges and universities. (But when the state's bottom line shifted from red to black, other demands generally were deemed more pressing. Higher education spending was often slow to recover, and sometimes had not when the next crisis hit. As a result, after each downturn, Minnesota schools — particularly the University of Minnesota — became more tuition-dependent.)
We know how important higher education is to Minnesota, they always said.
Do they? The COVID-19 pandemic could soon call that question. It's threatening to deprive colleges and universities of their customary backstop during hard times — tuition revenue. This could be the first modern-era recession that is not accompanied by a college enrollment surge. One national projection in late April foretold a 20% enrollment drop at four-year schools next fall.
The pandemic is also tempting some policymakers to think that the time has come to replace most in-person college instruction with a lower-cost online model — and to believe that the downside consequences in such a move would be few. That's a notion that ought to get skeptical scrutiny in Minnesota. It's far from clear that online study provides students with the leadership preparation that employers in a corporate headquarters state seek.
Granted, it's not yet clear what will — or won't — happen on Minnesota campuses next fall. The most optimistic planning scenarios say students will be back on campuses in numbers only slightly down from their pre-COVID levels. Students will need to adjust to spread-out classrooms in odd venues like tennis courts, cafeterias that offer only takeout dining, and athletic competition in far-from-full stadiums. But it can work, say a majority of administrators surveyed this month by the Chronicle of Higher Education.