With 40 games to go in the season, Twins have lingering questions

The Twins are four games above .500 with 40 games remaining, and their 4½-game lead in the American League Central gives them a 91% chance of winning the division, according to projections from FanGraphs.

The position should be comfortable, especially since the second-place Guardians opted to become partial sellers at the trade deadline. However, last year's collapse in September remains front of mind for the Twins' fan base. Plus, it's been a seesaw season where the Twins haven't exceeded six games above .500.

Despite the Twins' strong position in the standings and high playoff odds, there are plenty of questions looming ahead with six weeks remaining in the regular season:

Manager Rocco Baldelli hinted Buxton likely won't return before September, recovering from a hamstring strain. There are questions about his role whenever he rejoins the lineup.

It's been a disappointing season for Buxton, producing a .207 batting average and a .294 on-base percentage in 85 games with his highest strikeout rate since 2016. If he continues to play exclusively as a designated hitter, it probably pushes out a productive hitter.

The Twins have used six players as their DH since Buxton sustained his injury at the beginning of the month. Edouard Julien and Jorge Polanco account for nearly half the starts at DH in the last 15 games while Ryan Jeffers has received three starts on days he wasn't catching.

Buxton hasn't played any games in the outfield this season — Michael A. Taylor has provided solid defense in center — but the Twins never ruled out that possibility.

"This is a continued conversation with Byron, with the medical staff, with everybody around how he's responding on a daily basis," Derek Falvey, the Twins president of baseball operations, said at the end of July. "It's been the case where we just haven't been ready to push that for a multitude of reasons."

Few players can carry a lineup like Buxton when he's hitting at his best. In his last seven games before the injury, he had nine hits in 24 at-bats with five doubles and two homers. With the emergence of Julien, which already moved Polanco to another position, keeping Buxton at DH will have some ramifications for the rest of the roster.

Royce Lewis returned from the injured list Tuesday, reaching base six times in his first nine plate appearances, and he will see virtually all of his playing time at third base. Julien remains a second baseman while Polanco will continue to play second base and third base.

Baldelli said all three infielders will receive regular playing time, especially when one of them can serve as the DH against righthanded pitching. But the DH may be reserved for Buxton in September.

"We're going to end up probably talking about some different things," Baldelli said. "That could be some guys moving over to first base and getting some work in over there. I'm not ready to start naming who that's going to be and when, but there are some things that very well could be on the way."

Polanco is the superior defender to Julien at second base, but Polanco has shown a willingness to play anywhere. Julien took ground balls at first base before a game in St. Louis, however that was viewed as a one-off compared to something he was working on daily.

If Polanco or Julien spend time at first base, that would likely cut into Joey Gallo's playing time.

Since the All-Star break, the Twins' bullpen has the eighth-highest ERA (4.85). The team swapped Dylan Floro for Jorge López ahead of the trade deadline, and added setup man Caleb Thielbar from the injured list. It has been a tough stretch. though, for setup man Griffin Jax and closer Jhoan Duran.

Jax and Duran deserve time to work through their rough patches. If the Twins need to push another reliever into a larger role, Emilio Pagán may be the next man up. Pagán, mostly pitching in the seventh inning, has been sharp since the start of July.

Floro spent time as the Marlins closer, but he has struggled against lefthanded hitters this year. The Twins have deployed him against righthanded-heavy parts of the lineup. Injured reliever Brock Stewart has yet to return to the mound after a setback at the end of July.

After Jeffers showed improvement offensively and defensively this season, the 26-year-old shifted from a backup catcher to one who has typically alternated each game behind the plate with Christian Vázquez. There is value in keeping catchers fresh throughout an entire season, but it's hard to keep Jeffers out of the lineup.

Jeffers is hitting .280 this year with nine homers and 25 RBI. He's been dominant against righthanded pitching (.892 OPS) and strong against lefties (.793 OPS). Vázquez has posted a .597 OPS this season.

The Twins have a 33-23 record in games Jeffers starts, the club benefiting from a deeper lineup.

Varland has been dominant in his past four starts at Class AAA, posting a 0.70 ERA in his last 25⅔ innings with 23 strikeouts and eight walks. His velocity has been up, touching 98 miles per hour with his four-seam fastball, and Statcast credits him with mixing in a new sinker over his past two outings.

The Twins want to maintain starting depth to protect themselves from injuries, but Varland could put himself in position to earn a bullpen role on a potential playoff roster.

"Could I see a one- to two-inning role out of the bullpen for Louie Varland? Absolutely," Falvey said last month.