Minnesota food companies factoring in how weight-loss drugs affect snack sales

Years ago, Robyn Munsch would wander hungrily around the grocery store and leave with calorie-dense foods like a frozen pizza, cookies and frosting. That was before she started taking Wegovy and lost 85 pounds.

“I no longer buy chips, sweets or other junk foods,” the Rochester woman said. “I just don’t crave it. It’s life-changing.”

It’s also game-changing for the food industry, since Munsch is one of millions taking GLP-1 drugs, a class of medications originally intended for diabetes treatment that have grown in popularity recently as a weight-loss remedy. Those on Ozempic, Trulicity and other brand-name meds are eating far less packaged food as a result, and millions more will join the ranks in the years to come.

Businesses built on irresistible products are facing unprecedented resistance. Appetite-suppressing medications that an estimated 10% of American adults use are disrupting grocery shopping.

Savory snacks, sweets, refrigerated dough and dozens of other grocery categories have seen a meaningful decline among GLP-1 users, according to a Cornell University and Numerator survey.

“Our findings highlight the potential for GLP-1 medications to significantly change food demand, a trend with increasingly important implications for the food industry as GLP-1 adoption continues to grow,” the study concluded.

Yet food companies from Hershey to Hormel are waving off the impact of GLP-1 drugs, even as they’ve been dropping weight themselves. The volume of food those and other companies sell has declined in recent years.

Meanwhile, a PwC study found GLP-1 users’ food spending drops by 11%, and Morgan Stanley analysts have predicted the drugs will cause an overall decline in food sold through the next decade even as the U.S. population continues to grow.

“CEOs who aren’t considering it as part of their innovation path, as part of their messaging, as part of their core assets: They’re missing out,” said Sally Lyons Wyatt, chief consumer goods adviser at market research firm Circana.

Earlier this year, Lyons Wyatt had to urge a food CEO to at least take credit for the Ozempic-friendly foods they had in their portfolio before talking to investors about GLP-1.

“They were going to basically say they weren’t going to be impacted,” she said, adding that she replied: “‘I don’t know who is giving you that instruction, but you are, you will be, and it is something you have to tackle.‘”

Yet even protein shake companies that are benefiting from GLP-1 use haven’t quite nailed down the precise effect the drugs are having on sales, which are trending way up.

“It’s difficult to be scientific about the impact of GLP-1s on the business,” wrote JP Morgan analyst Ken Goldman.

While companies like Nestle and Conagra have released products explicitly targeting Ozempic users, General Mills has only recently announced plans to market to folks on GLP-1s.

“This year, we’re targeting GLP-1 consumers and telling them how Progresso protein and fiber benefits can fit seamlessly into their new routine,” CEO Jeff Harmening said at an industry conference in February.

Even with Progresso’s Pitmaster soups and protein-enhanced Nature Valley bars, the Golden Valley-based company makes much of its $19 billion in yearly sales from the kind of carbs GLP-1 users no longer crave.

“A box of cereal will last me two weeks,” Munsch said. “That would have never happened before taking GLP-1.”

That’s a sentiment a growing number of consumers share. About 10% of American adults are currently on GLP-1 medication, Harmening said, but he maintains that General Mills has not taken a sales hit because of it, echoing what other food execs are saying.

“I honestly think it’s a net benefit for General Mills,” Harmening said in an interview last month. “Consumers, even those on GLP-1s, still want stuff that tastes good. They want them in the right proportions.”

Doctors wrote more than 660,000 prescriptions for Wegovy, Mounjaro and similar drugs for Minnesotans last year, according to insurance claims data from PurpleLab.

Some of those folks say they truly crave lean proteins, fruits and veggies instead of sweets and snacks. The Minnesota Star Tribune asked readers to share their experiences with eating on GLP-1 medications, and several dozen wrote in with their grocery habits.

Lauren Irwin, 30, said she’s just not as hungry anymore.

“What I do buy tends to be more natural. Frozen fruits and veggies, lean meat straight from the deli,” the Minneapolis woman wrote. “When we go out to eat, I avoid greasy food and try to get bowls of rice with meat and vegetables on it.”

Nancy Feist of Minneapolis said she still buys treats, but they tend to last much longer.

“It’s actually made me more likely to buy things like Oreos and other more calorie-dense foods because I can be in control around them,” the 46-year-old wrote. “I don’t buy a lot, but I don’t have the, ‘Oh, I can’t keep that food in my house because I’d binge on it’ mentality.”

Some users said they have to remind themselves to eat, and can leave grocery stores with an empty cart because nothing looks appealing.

Food executives have pointed to the short time weight-loss patients take GLP-1 medications, generally less than a year. But as some cycle off, even more are starting.

The big question is how many will regain weight and resume old diets after stopping the medication. Research is limited but does indicate that some regain weight without an exercise regimen.

Kimberly Antonsen, 49, of Frazee, has been off Ozempic for two years but has kept up a similar eating pattern from her GLP-1 days: pre-packaged salads for lunch and high-protein foods for snacks.

“I have not gained much weight back, but I do have my sugar cravings back,” she said.

Hormel Foods leaders say GLP-1 drugs have created a great opportunity for Jennie-O turkey.

“With the number one brand nationally in Jennie-O ground turkey, we’re in a great position to capitalize on that growing consumer market,” Hormel’s head of retail, John Ghingo, told analysts on a conference call earlier this year. “Poultry and fish are among the highest growth categories experiencing increased consumption for those on GLP-1s.”

But just as food leaders are loath to blame Ozempic for sales declines, they are hesitant to give the drugs credit for sales boosts.

“We’re seeing what we think is broad-based consumer growth in the category coming from a lot of places,” Ghingo said about turkey in a February interview.

Oreo maker Mondelez last year sold 1% less food than the year before, but the CEO has in the past called the effect of GLP-1 drugs “overblown.”

“We do not necessarily see ... a decreased consumption in snacking because of GLP-1s,” CEO Dirk van de Put told analysts in February.

Lyons Wyatt at Circana said the drugs won’t put Big Food out of business, but package sizes, prices and ingredients will be changing to meet reduced demand.

“Indulgent products are going to be fine,” she said. “You are going to see a lot of reformulation.”

Tammy Mead of Cloquet runs a Facebook group with nearly 300,000 members where GLP-1 users share recipes. She has seen a big embrace of protein shakes, powders and bars that she worries will keep folks hooked on convenience.

“This has become a niche in the food market, marketing to people that are focused on protein,” Mead said. “In my opinion, these products are highly processed, and while they may work for the short term, I don’t believe they are sustainable for people who decide to come off the medication.”