Twins roster analysis: Who's in? Who's out? Batting order, starting rotation, a big question

FORT MYERS, FLA. — The Twins' collapse of 2022 left them with a record of 78-84, 14 games behind the Cleveland Guardians in the American League Central.

For a team that left its fans disappointed in October, the Twins have surprisingly few jobs open on their roster just four months later.

Here's a way-too-early breakdown of who's a lock for the roster, and where the spring competition might occur:

Closer: Jhoan Duran. The Twins have not made an announcement about their bullpen plans, but several Twins officials have offhandedly mentioned Duran's potential dominance in this role.

The rest of the bullpen: Jorge Lopez figures to be the primary setup reliever, but manager Rocco Baldelli will have plenty of end-game options, including Griffin Jax, Jorge Alcala and lefty Caleb Thielbar. Jovani Moran is expected to be the second lefty and Emilio Pagan, despite his poor 2022 performance, will get a shot to revive his career working in the middle innings. His stuff remains dynamic.

That would leave one spot in the bullpen for a long reliever/spot starter. Will the Twins choose a starter, like Bailey Ober or Louie Varland, or more of a utility pitcher?

Rotation: In no particular order, it's Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda. Ober figures to be the first call-up. Josh Winder's sore shoulder may remove him from early-season consideration.

Catcher: Christian Vazquez is the presumptive starter, but Ryan Jeffers should get plenty of work.

Outfield: At the moment the most likely alignment would be Joey Gallo in left, Byron Buxton in center and Max Kepler in right, with Michael A. Taylor as the primary defensive backup. If the Twins carry an extra corner outfielder or DH, it should be between Trevor Larnach, Kyle Garlick and Matt Wallner.

Infield: Alex Kirilloff will likely start at first, with Jorge Polanco at second, Carlos Correa at short and Jose Miranda at third. Kyle Farmer will be the primary backup shortstop, and Nick Gordon will reprise his super-utility role. Veteran Donovan Solano was added this week, meaning there's a battle for roster spots.

DH: Baldelli has said he wants to rotate his regulars through the DH spot.

Baldelli hasn't divulged a prospective lineup, and injuries and matchups will likely prompt him to use a slew of different lineups, but here's one that would make sense:

This team should be excellent defensively up the middle and at the outfield corners. This is a rare Twins camp in which none of the key pitching roles are undecided, and a rare Twins camp in which five veteran, in-their-prime starters comprise the rotation.

This easily will be the most promising bullpen the Twins have assembled under President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey. Duran has thrown 103 mph. Lopez, Alcala, Jax and Pagan can reach the upper 90s.

In modern baseball, are power arms in the bullpen a luxury or a requirement?

"It's kind of a requirement,'' Falvey said. "At this stage, with the way the game has trended, and certainly if you're trying to win in October, this is what works. You see it every year. I hate watching the playoffs when we're not in them, but I do watch as an educational experience, to remind myself what it takes to win those games. And I think power in the back of your bullpen is a necessity.''

The Twins' belief is that they had a good team in 2022 and injuries derailed them. The theme of the camp seems to be a phrase that Baldelli used in his first full-team meeting: "Prove us right'' about that belief.

The weakness of this team at the moment, if they bat Buxton, Correa and Polanco in the first three holes of the lineup, will be the middle portion of the lineup.

Can some combination of Kepler, Kirilloff, Miranda, Gallo and Larnach/Garlick/Wallner become reliable run producers?

At the moment, this is the key question in Twins' camp.