Vikings predictions: What will their 2024 record be?

The Vikings enter head coach Kevin O’Connell’s third season with a lot of new faces, the most important being at quarterback. Coming off a 7-10 season of wild swings and major injuries, what does 2024 have in store?

Most of the Minnesota Star Tribune staff writers and columnists who cover the team think there won’t be a lot of winning. Here are their predictions for the Vikings’ 2024 record, from most pessimistic to most optimistic, ahead of Sunday’s season opener against the New York Giants.

How do I know what’s going to happen? If I knew, I’d bet on sports and be rich. Anyway, let’s guess 6-11. The new emphasis on running the ball and what probably will be an improved defense won’t make up for less-than-desirable quarterback play in what is supposed to be a passing offense. Expect close games, and close losses.

I’m not saying they can’t win nine to 10 games and make the playoffs. It’s the NFL. What I am saying is I gotta see it to believe it. In Sam I Do Not (Yet) Trust. Record: 6-11.

This has always looked like a transition season for the Vikings before J.J. McCarthy takes over as quarterback and a ton of salary cap space becomes available. It’s also a referendum on Sam Darnold and whether he can serve as a functional starting quarterback in the NFL. The defense will be deeper and more versatile in Brian Flores’ second season as defensive coordinator. The schedule is daunting, though. Record: 7-10.

Brian Flores’ defense will breathe fire. But Sam Darnold is the Vikings quarterback. He’s on his fourth team, having failed to stick with the Jets and Panthers before backing up Brock Purdy in San Francisco. He is hard to trust. The more-talented J.J. McCarthy would have been starting at some point, but his season-ending knee injury has sucked the fun out of 2024. Can’t wait for 2025 to get here. Record: 7-10.

I’ve tended to be the most negative one in these predictions, but this year the pack has come back to me. The Vikings have some talent, and they clearly aren’t tanking as evidenced by some of their offseason defensive additions. But there are too many questions on offense, especially at quarterback, to be overly optimistic. Unless the defense is one of the league’s best, they will miss the playoffs again. Record: 7-10.

There’s plenty of offensive talent, especially if Aaron Jones gets the ball frequently, and there’s more depth on defense. The Vikings could make a playoff push if they get consistency from the quarterback position. For that to happen, Sam Darnold will have to put together the best season of his career and make plenty of plays in close games. With a daunting early schedule, that’s a lot to ask. Record: 8-9.

The NFL goes through cycles of luck from how a ball bounces or a ligament tears. The Vikings had some pretty bad luck with both last season after having pretty good luck in 2022. Without proof of an established, comfortable quarterback, this year’s Vikings probably have a low ceiling in a tough NFC North. But with some of that luck, they could be a plucky group that’s “in the hunt” come December and January. They need key veterans to stay healthy like running back Aaron Jones and corners Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Griffin. Record: 9-8.

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