Will the Vikings win a high-stakes home game against their biggest rival? Ben Goessling’s prediction.

The 13-2 Vikings will be the NFC’s No. 1 seed if they win their final two regular-season games. To get there, they’ll have to win a high-stakes home game against another playoff-bound team: their biggest rival.

The Packers have won five of their last six games, scoring at least 30 points in each of their last five, on the way to an 11-4 record. They can’t win the NFC North, but can still catch the Vikings for the NFC’s top wild-card spot and deny their division rivals a chance to take the No. 1 seed from the Lions. If the Vikings lose on Sunday and the Lions win Monday night, the Vikings will be eliminated in the division race. If they win Sunday, they’ll be guaranteed a shot at home-field advantage next Sunday in Detroit.

Here’s a look at the big game between the Vikings and Packers:

National audience for a consequential game: Fox moved the Vikings-Packers game to its biggest national TV slot at 3:25 p.m. on Sunday, and the entire country is slated to see the game as the Packers try to avoid being swept by the Vikings for the first time since 2017. Tickets are going for around $350 on the secondary market, and U.S. Bank Stadium figures to be as charged as it’s been all season. If the Vikings can handle the stage, they’re all but guaranteed to be playing the Lions in the Week 18 Sunday night game with a division title and the NFC’s top seed on the line.

McKinney leads opportunistic defense: In the Vikings’ first meeting with the Packers on Sept. 29, safety Xavier McKinney picked off Sam Darnold near the goal line for his fourth interception in as many games with the team. He’s tied for the NFL lead with seven this season, and he leads a Packers defense that ranks third in the league in takeaways with 28 (behind only the Steelers and the Vikings). McKinney hasn’t pulled down an interception since Nov. 24, but the Vikings will have to watch him closely over the top of Justin Jefferson.

Cooper adds to Packers’ front seven: Second-round pick Edgerrin Cooper had his biggest game of the season two weeks ago in Seattle, winning NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors after posting a sack, an interception, two pass defenses and seven tackles. He’s thrived as a pass rusher while showing he can drop into coverage. The Packers will not have Quay Walker on Sunday because of an ankle injury, but Cooper has quickly become a vital member of a Green Bay front that’s helped the Packers defense rank near the top of the league this season.

Green Bay runs through Jacobs: Running back Josh Jacobs carried just nine times for 51 yards in the Packers’ first meeting with the Vikings, who built a 28-0 lead in the first half at Lambeau Field. But if Green Bay can keep its run game as a factor Sunday, Jacobs figures to do much of the damage. The 223-pound back is fourth in the NFL with 1,216 yards as the featured back in an offense that’s more committed to the run than it’s ever been under Matt LaFleur. The Packers’ offensive line ranks just 20th in ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate metric, but Jacobs is one of the NFL’s toughest backs to bring down. Said Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores this week: “I think we’ve done a good job of tackling, but Josh Jacobs makes me feel like we need to talk about tackling.”

Vikings will try to pressure Love into turnovers: Quarterback Jordan Love, who was picked off three times in the Packers’ first loss to the Vikings, hasn’t thrown an interception in Green Bay’s last five games while being just sacked three times in that stretch. He’s posted a 113.3 passer rating from a clean pocket this season, according to NFL Next Gen Stats; that rate drops to 59.1 when he’s pressured. Few quarterbacks, in other words, have a larger drop-off in their performance under pressure than Love. The Vikings blitzed him on 46.4% of his dropbacks in the first game, though their 28-point lead might have allowed them to come after him with few repercussions. With a noisy crowd likely on Sunday, they’ll try to see if they can harass him into throwing interceptions.

Vikings

Packers

The Packers are rolling, with an offense that can move the ball in multiple ways now that tight end Luke Musgrave has rejoined Tucker Kraft. Jacobs will be a handful, and Green Bay’s front could cause trouble for a Vikings team that’s lost left tackle Christian Darrisaw since the last meeting. Love has struggled in two of his three meetings with Flores, though, and the Packers’ secondary could have a tough time with the Vikings’ weapons as cornerback Jaire Alexander misses another matchup with Jefferson because of injury. This is likely to be a riveting game worthy of its national TV audience, and the Vikings will have their hands full with a streaking Packers team. But the Vikings have more to gain, and if they force Love into the turnovers he committed in the first matchup, they’ll set up an NFC North title game with the Lions. Vikings 30, Packers 27

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