The Wild are 3-5-2 this season, including 0-3-1 in their last four games after a 5-3 loss to New Jersey on Thursday.
The eye test and a deeper dive into the numbers lead to a conclusion about that rough start that is either sobering or encouraging, depending your perspective: In identifying problems, it hasn't been one thing. It's been just about everything.
Many of the issues are related, which at least gives rise to the idea that an overall correction can lead to improvement in a lot of specific areas. But it also means there is a lot of blame to go around, as I talked about on Friday's Daily Delivery podcast.
Goaltending: The Wild have allowed 42 goals (in 10 games) this season, the second-most in the NHL behind San Jose. Last year the Wild were tied for second-fewest goals allowed in the West and seventh-fewest in the NHL. That's a huge difference, and as the last line of defense goaltenders sometimes get a disproportionate amount of blame when pucks wind up in the net.
Let's give Filip Gustavsson and Marc-Andre Fleury a proper share of the blame. They have been bad, and one key stat confirms it: expected goals. Circumstances and shot quality suggest the Wild should have given up 33 goals so far this year. That they've given up nine more in 10 games is a direct result of subpar play from their goalies. Compare it to last year, when they allowed about 20 fewer goals than expected, and it's a huge swing.
Defense: But goaltending isn't solely to blame. Again, using expected goals, the Wild should be giving up about 3.3 goals per game — compared to 2.9 per game last season. They have clearly missed the departed Matt Dumba and injured Jared Spurgeon. Their forwards have also been leaky in defensive zone coverage at key moments. The defending has been worse than last year, and the goaltending has been poor behind it. That's a bad combination.
Special teams: Here's where the "but the Wild have been OK in 5-on-5 situations" crowd wants to have a word. The Wild is being outscored just 26-25 when both they and their opponent are at full strength — not great, but yes, better than they are overall.
But guess what? Special teams are a big part of hockey. Just see any number of early Wild playoff exits in recent years. Only focusing on 5-on-5 is like saying "I did a good job eating healthy food on Thursday, except for the six miniature Krackel candy bars left over from Halloween that I consumed throughout the day." (Note: Hypothetically, um, speaking).