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The Star Tribune’s March 30 front-page overview of fraud in pandemic programs (“Fraud flourished amid torrent of COVID aid”) offered some overdue perspective, putting our $266 million in fraud convictions and allegations in the context of an estimated $200 billion stolen nationally, out of $4.5 trillion in total relief over the last five years. (The Associated Press has estimated $280 billion in total pandemic fraud under both the Trump and Biden administrations.)
The article also wisely refrained from parroting the barrage of partisan messaging from the right to the effect that Minnesota was uniquely inept at preventing pandemic fraud. We do know from endless media repetition that the $250 million in the Feeding Our Future theft was the largest single case of fraud in the Child Nutrition Program, one of the smaller pandemic programs administered by the federal government and the states.
The reporters concluded that nobody seems to have a definitive state-by-state tally on total pandemic fraud. And lacking data, the article avoided any estimate of how we ranked among the states, beyond a website headline declaring there was “a lot” in Minnesota.
Oddly omitted was one redeeming fact, reported by the Star Tribune last summer. Minnesota was among the best in the nation at preventing fraud in the pandemic unemployment payments, which was a larger program than child nutrition. Reports from a federal oversight agency found that the improper payment rate in Minnesota was less than 10%, while Florida led the nation with 36%.
A little quick arithmetic, using figures in the story, suggest Minnesota might not be among the most fraud-prone overall. Minnesota’s documented fraud so far comes to $46 per person ($266 million divided by 5.8 million population) over the five years of the pandemic relief. Nationally, per capita estimated fraud would be $612 per capita ($200 billion divided by 360 million population). That’s not an apples-to-apples comparison. The Minnesota per capita figure is convictions and alleged fraud while the national figure is an estimate of total fraud and overpayment, much of it unprosecuted. No doubt Minnesota’s per capita amount would be higher if more comprehensive fraud totals were available. Bottom line, again: We still don’t really know how the states compared on the grand total of pandemic fraud.
Meanwhile, let’s go full speed ahead at the Legislature on bipartisan efforts to tighten security on state grants programs and install an inspector general and more layers of protection. And on the broader issue of fraud, critics of Minnesota state government who are marching in lockstep with President Donald Trump and DOGE czar Elon Musk need to explain why the federal government is firing inspectors general, removing independent oversight of federal agencies in general and abolishing the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
